Heart of the Metaverse 2022-11-24 18:57:12 阅读数:948
1. Every generation of computing platform, experienced a bottom-up process：First the birth of a number of vertical vertical computing equipment validation requirements,And then after a long time of development of science and technology,Eventually integrated into a device to realize.
2. The maturity of the mobile phone supply chain,AIThe development of technology and computer vision, etc,是今天VRThe basis for the device to come to market.
3. display from monochrome screen to2K彩色屏幕,At the end of interaction from the handle hand tracking,Calculate the force from a pile of cable to connect the computer to the wireless camera,Generations of genius product manager with20Years like a jigsaw puzzle spell out todayVR设备.
4. 2 d interaction is a controller with the mouse and keyboard handle button type interaction,Three dimensional interaction based on the user's head、Hands, and even the whole body is controller track type interaction,今天的VREquipment will be the past50In the 2 d interaction revolutionary upgrade to 3 d interaction.
5. 3 d is a form of organization things.The real 3 d information technology contains three dimensional information display and 3 d information interaction.
6. VRnot just virtual worlds,Nature is a 3 d information technology revolution.VRGame is a combination of industry and 3 d information technology.个人电脑、Smartphones over the past 50 years of two-dimensional information technology revolution,VR和ARWill bring the next 50 years more spectacular three-dimensional information technology revolution. 3 d information technology revolution has transformed again in all walks of life.
7. ARThe essence of not glasses on a display screen,而是无处不在、Mix 3 d information technology revolution.AR比VR多了两个特性：It is not only need to interact with the virtual world,You also need to interact with the real world;Second, you need to get out of the house,全天候使用.AR和VRit's the same thing,Is to solve the three dimensional information obtain and make use of,什么时候用VR什么时候用ARAccording to user needs to decide.
8. Horizon Worlds和Meta Quest 2只是MetaThe tip of the iceberg of the Metaverse.MetaThe layout incorporates optical、显示、计算机视觉、音频、图形、交互、Operating system such as the underlying technology accumulation,Dozens of prototype product exploration and a lot of business to buy.The layout will have a far-reaching influence on industry,.
9. VR和ARDepending on the underlying science and technology progress for a long time,The design of medium term hardware products,The short term content and application development.Oculus的诞生,把VR从innovators（创新者）stage advanced toearly adopters（早期使用者）阶段.
10. 目前VR和ARIndustry's biggest mistake is to use 2 d information technology revolution of the old experience to make 3 d information technology revolution.
11. The future to be born an unprecedented products and application.Caveman studio so describe the futureVR游戏：“today we playVR的FPS（第一人称射击）游戏,a bullet is coming at you,you'll dodge right away,then fight back.五年后的VRThe game will become another way,here comes the bullet,You may first want to not fight back,But will hide under the table,Even the table with the hand down as a shield,then fight back.”
I share it in the last year there is a point of view,如果把VR和ARStage of development and the development of personal computers and smartphones phase draws an analogy with,目前相当于1977年,Meta Quest 2The historical status is equivalent toAtari 2600（详见：从游戏机、计算机、智能手机的过去五十年 看VR和AR的未来五十年）.
Many people listen to said that if we don't do this line,It is so long.我说你知道1977What's the year?？1977In youth jobs and youth Bill Gates started the business,If you were at that time to do the investment,Do you have a chance to young jobs and young Bill Gates,这不挺好？I spoke last yearVR和AR还需要发展50年,More is to want to express the industry in the future the huge development potential.
我讲Meta Quest 2相当于Atari 2600,On the one hand, also want to express has obvious progress so far.Atari 2600Is in itself a epoch-making product,并且Atari 2600发售的4was born afterPC.But many people after they finish feel current nothing.It makes me wonder if I write too pessimistic？my purpose today,Just want to let everyone on the basis of rational,Can more actively to think of this industry.
Let's begin from the picture speak,This picture is about the past50Advances in consumer electronics hardware.if we go back now20世纪70年代左右,我们会发现,1970年到2000Appeared in all kinds of consumer electronics products,Such as SONY's famous workWalkman,又比如1989年任天堂推出的Game Boy,2000out after the yeariPod ,然后是Palm和数码相机,还有1973In mobile.
在很多人的眼中,觉得iPhoneIt seems to be out of nowhere,Jobs alone2007year put this“新物种”给做出来了.但实际上,乔布斯在iPhoneGeneration release up to50multi minute speech,在最后介绍 iPhone When he said a words over and over again——He said that this is a triad equipment：an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator,三合一,then play continuously“three in one”The carousel animation for.
In fact, we use smartphone is no longer a triad today,At least six in one、七合一、八合一,And in it.Why Steve jobs so to speak？Because all this is not all the jobs one of invention and innovation.as early as forty or fifty years ago,Many great companies to do mobile devices.比如说WalkmanSony,Game Boybehind is nintendo,Big brother is behind MOTOROLA.
The above each device confirms it,Human demand for mobile devices it is not 2007 年才发生的,早在20世纪70年代PMF（Product Market Fit）就已经出现了.Just at the time because the technology is not perfect,So our choices on the product,The different kinds of hardware.The hardware equipment to verify the requirements in the field of vertical,并且不断进化.
iPod The full range of sales is4到5亿台.Game BoyAccumulative total sales of more than one hundred million units,Game BoyThere's a iteration calledNDS,NDS 全球销量1.5亿台,it has a competitor calledPSP, sold globally8500万台.not to mention mobile phones,从大哥大到NokiaMachine function to the blackberry,There are billions of sales.
也就是说,其实在iPhone出来之前,Billions of mobile devices have been sold,and separately from the music、视频、娱乐、通讯、Office and other directions have been verifiedPMF.Then these devices start fusion,到了2007年乔布斯发布了iPhone一代,iPhoneAfter more than ten years of development again,Became so today we hand a powerful device to.
A similar thing is not the first time in history has appeared.Let's go back and look back,PC之前,can even go back to2600The invention of the abacus years ago,200typewriter invented years ago,20世纪20invention of television,1945In the second world war large computer,20世纪70S video games listed,This series of equipment validation focus on the human demand for desktop desktop equipment is always there,只不过到了70年代末80年代初,Apple and other manufacturers to integrate it into a device,然后由IBM在1981year namedPC（Personal Computer 个人电脑）.
Why do I want to go first to tell you so today one thing,Because it reflects the evolution regularity of two generations of computing platform,在这个过程中,Technology is constantly meet demand,Then needs to promote the development of the technology.A series of vertical demand and technology matching,The vertical computing devices,Then these meet the demand of vertical vertical equipment along with the progress of the technology,The final convergence has become the common generation computing platform.A generation of computing platform is not to say that suddenly went out one day,But by a series of validation of user requirements and the development of a series of vertical computing devices eventually converge and become,There is a rich vein.
所以,We employed in this field today,On the one hand to avoid overly optimistic,With the subjective desire and ambition alone artificially set development goals;另一方面,Also avoid being too pessimistic,Not because of the capital market fluctuations and the outside question give up.we think critically,Not to beat the industry,But because the only rational analysis,Grasp the rules,Can easily face the challenges of the next every stage.
让我们回到2022 年,Today there are so many powerful computing devices at our hands already.我们有iPhone 14 、PC、PS5 、Switch、Xbox、iPad,We must admit that today the computing equipment function is very powerful and very“吃”用户的时间.比如抖音,A brush to brush several hours,看微信公众号、朋友圈、A short video also have a few hours a week.游戏方面,赛博朋克2077、王者荣耀、吃鸡、The old man ring these experiences are doing very well.other than computing equipment,According to the choice is also very much,Such as domestic intelligent projector also is very nice,At home watching a movie for two hours has passed quickly.
We also have to admit,These devices are very cheap.There are thousand yuan mobile phones,游戏机Switch只卖1000多块.前不久,My family has also bought a red rice display,24寸400多块钱,Return for seven days without any reason.这里就产生了一个问题,There are so many cheap and good computing devices, take your time,How do we will have time to useVR和AR设备？
到今年为止,Now almost all over the world should have1000Thousands of unitsMeta Quest 2,Do some people in the world is used in everydayVR.都说VR是游戏机,why don't theyPS5和Switch玩游戏？为什么非要用VR？I think this problem is very worth thinking.
VR、AR Is the next generation computing platform？VR、AR When it's time to a killer application？These problems I think essentially is asking the same question——VR、ARWhat creates value？because only understand VR、AR 到底在做什么,We are qualified to discussVR、AR The killer application of what could be,and our distanceVR、AR As the next generation computing platform and how long.
This is I today to ask the first question： VR、AR的本质到底是什么？It created a what kind of user value？
1. VRHistorical Evolution of Equipment
要回答这个问题,Let's start with researchVREquipment the historical evolution of start.历史上,业界对VREquipment investment has not stopped.从1960年代提出VR的概念,到2021年Facebook将公司改名为Meta,再到目前Meta Quest 2全球销量突破1000万,这中间到底发生了什么？Is a large subsidies after sales figures？Or a real person in the use ofVR？VR What is in the progress of the foam which is real？我选取了4Very typical equipment,来说明VRHow devices have evolved,VRHow is bit by bit to create its user value.
We first product,这是VRA big failure in the history of the.I put the last yearVirtual Boy拿出来讲,I will tell to take out this year,But this year's will enrich 1:00 speak more specific than last year.Virtual Boy是任天堂在1994年发布的一款VR游戏机.1994Nintendo is what kind of level？It occupy the console markets around the world80%的市场份额.Of the flat is the device project leader,Pu in the mountain is the nintendo President.
Of the flat is almost equivalent to the role of the father of modern video games.During his career inside,he made a lot of contributions,比较主要的有：One is to play games now we're still in the cross of the key handle,二是Game Boy——In the history of the PSP sales breakthrough in the first paragraph of the.
The products ability to what extent？He saw a few Japanese girls play the electronic calculator on the bus,He feel this thing can be evolved into a handheld console,And then to design the cross key handle,The interaction of cross key criteria used to today.I think this insight into the world today,And few can match.如果要评选20Century global best product manager,there must be one.
Pu in the mountain is nintendo's third President.Nintendo is Japan's family business,To the mountain in pu has been the third generation,He finished the nintendo in the term from poker manufacturers to toy manufacturers,And from toy makers to the transformation of the world's first electronic games company,Open the modern electronic game industry.Horizontal Wells army was assessment of mountain pu：“Although he doesn't understand how games and toys to,But his judgment amazing,Any product as long as give him read,He can see whether can sell.”
It's the combination of these two,在1994年发布了VR游戏机Virtual Boy,Yamauchi pu initially expected to sell five million units in the first year,Results in Japan only sell tens of Taiwan,User Reviews Collapse,The last of the flat resigned,Left him the service lifetime of nintendo.
history has said so：“7月末,Nintendo President within the mountain pu to continuous emergency countermeasures at the beginner's mind and middle phase of the shareholders meeting to the partners and shareholders delegates bowed to malaysians,It for the10Reigns over the years for the old man is only his shame ,Remorseful about his lost consistent with the perpetrators of the flat tolerance and trust.Horizontal well the flat failure is all his enemies for,Nintendo's condemnation in almost all the big zhang,Make it almost useless.”
Virtual Boy的失败是VRA big failure in the history of the,Because it is by the reigning nintendo,By the most famous product manager of the flat knife,Be created nintendo President of legend mountain pu approval and hope.
Let's remember a few hereVirtual Boy的产品规格：第一, Resolution is monocular384×224,Red and black monochrome display.第二,Head is fixed on the desktop and not mobile（Portable when researching,Later the crush gave up mobile features）.第三,Using a single game joysticks.
回头来复盘, Horizontal well the flat to want to do is essentially a with3DThe handheld display effect.When the player's feedback is generally “头晕,nausea and headache”,Also somebody USES affect vision feedback said a long time,These feedbacks are not unexpected.But in those days there was a edit evaluation very proactive,《Next Generation》edited inVirtual Boyevaluated at the time of release：“but who will buy it？This is not a true portable console,and it's awkward to use.它100%antisocial（不像SNES/Genesis游戏）,它很贵,而且最重要的‘VR’（或者说3D效果）,Do not increase the content of the game,It is just a very novelty.”
The user feedback together is two questions,第一,Virtual BoyThe display effect of not exceeding the expectation ".第二,Virtual Boy的VRDo not increase the game content.
时间到了2002年,Hiroshi Yamauchi announces retirement,The baton to the nintendo's fourth President——Genius Programmer Satoshi Iwata,He was also the first President to family members within the mountain.Satoru Iwata's early years wereHALInstitute President,HALInstitute has for nintendo games,Became a wholly owned subsidiary of nintendo,Then iwata directly recruited the nintendo our.
During Satoru Iwata's tenure,One of the important contributions is led releasedWii.Wii主机在2006年发售,Accumulative total sales of more than one hundred million sets of.WiiThe most significant innovation is redefined controller interaction.WiiThe host is tie-in a infrared receiver,in front of the tv,Handle of the built-in gravity sensor and gyro,二者结合,Handle moving direction can be calculated、位置和速度.WiiThe device looks andVRLess than a piece of left to,but essentially to the laterVRPlays a big role in the development of.
因为WiiChanges to handle interaction,A new type of game——体感游戏,WiiAlso known as the body feeling game.Players can through brandish lever to simulate the sword、挥拍、Hitting and other actions,Not by click the button to play,其中《Wii Sports》game sales reached8500万份.
在Wii之后的2010年,Microsoft introduced a more advanced body feeling game againKinect.KinectCan identify the player's body movements.
站在今天来看,The device actually part of the validationVR交互的原型,Is the successful application of a motion capture in the consumer market.Handle the operating mode from buttons to can capture by swinging the players hand movements,Therefore can also simulate the action of the new,The action itself and not by the player button trigger,But the players really do these actions,Therefore also widened the game the crowd,Gave birth to the new game category——体感游戏.
But at the same time we will see,Because is still in the framework of 2 d display and interaction,Be able to use the data or hand movements are limited.Like you can't really control to hand movements in three-dimensional space in the mobile,Control in the game was more like in the two-dimensional plane movement and beat,Difficult to establish real lasting play.In addition to limited first party games sold,Did not grow large enough third-party ecological,The two devices are achieved very good sales,But not therefore become the mainstream of game.
再往下走,to the modernVR设备Oculus Rift.
Oculus成立于2012年,Founder is a callPalmer Luckey的90 后,美国人.He is a hardware enthusiasts,Never attended a prestigious school,College dropout to start drummed up electric,Invention of new products.2014年,Oculus公司就以30亿美金被Facebook 收购了.Oculus RiftSeries of consumer versions eventually there is no final sales,But you can estimate the same specifications of the hardware has accumulated millions of users worldwide,really accumulatedVR早期用户.另外,Based on the prototype iteration outOculus Quest 2,Breakthrough in global sales1000万台.
Here we compare againOculus系列和Virtual Boy取得的成绩,问题就来了,Horizontal well the flat why so much of a man,在VRbetter than20年后的一个90post-dropout？
Let's take a look at the specific where is difference of the two devices.
The first is the display, OculusThe prototype of was born in2014年,What does it mean to this year？我们知道2010年iPhone 4面世了,iPhone 4what does coming out mean？It has been the retina screen.那到2014年,What kind of changes in supply chain？便宜、High resolution and small screen in the supply chain conditions for it have been.可以这么说,If there is no mature mobile phone screen of the supply chain,VRcan't make it.
Oculus Rift cv1The display resolution has arrived monocular1200×800.所以第一点,Mobile phone supply chain directly helpPalmer LuckeyGet rid of the display problems.反观Virtual BoyIt is red and black monochrome display,Resolution is monocular384×224 ,much lower than today,The flat and horizontal well was deliberately chosen red and black collocation is because these two kinds of color contrast to come out will have stereo feeling more,这些问题都是Palmer Luckey不需要考虑的.
The second is the interactive terminal,The handle and todayVR控制器是不同的,Is a normal game handle,A controller to control the change of view,角色的移动.但Oculus系列已经从2006年的Wii和2010年的KinectThe body feeling absorb a lot of experience in the progress of the game.在进入了Oculus时代后,Positioning technology is also implemented from3dof到6dofsmall leap,Through the computer vision technology and the progress of various sensors,Not only can locate the rotation of the head and hands,Can also locate head and hands in the space of mobile.而这些技术,在90年代还没有出现.
screen and interaction,Both technology was not mature,However, the two technology is todayVRAn important part of equipment.No previous enough accumulation in the history of,Alone with the product manager of genius,Do not to come out of excitingVR设备的.
但是Oculus RiftThe series also has a disadvantage,Is that there is no independent cell,must be connected every timePC才能使用,Configure one to supportVRThe desktop cost is not low,Also need to open the computer first and then into theVRThe operation is also more cumbersome.But fortunately in this formVRAccumulated millions of early users,Third party ecological appeared bud,我们耳熟能详的VRaction music gameBeat Saber,Also in this period was born.
The fourth device,It is today that the sales volume exceeds1000万台的Meta Quest 2.Quest 2跟Quest 1其实差别不大.那么Questthan the previous oneOculus Rift Swhere is the main progress？This time we have to say to a person——John Carmack,Oculus前CTO,3D游戏之父,He made a very large contribution to industry.
Oculus Rift S和Questwhere is the main difference？QuestIt's a wireless all-in-one.And in order to realize wireless camera,Relying on two technology breakthrough：
The first is positioning technology,Oculus RiftThe previous positioning technology wasOutside-in,before you play,To put a camera or two base station,And once put away,it's hard for you to move,It takes up space and is troublesome.Quest采用Inside-out定位技术,on the headset4camera positioning,So that it does not need additional auxiliary equipment,All of a sudden reduce barriers is very low.Why to be able to use this technology？One of the very important reason is thatAI的发展.John Carmacklead his team inAIAlgorithmic breakthrough,圆满完成了任务.
The second is the progress of the mobile phone chips.Thanks to the rapid development of smart phones,到了2019年的时候,With Qualcomm Snapdragon835芯片,QuestCan independence from computer operation,而这在2014years are unimaginable,只能依赖PC进行计算.Quest 2又在此基础上,Qualcomm SnapdragonXR2芯片,And the lower version with product price pressure to299美金.
显示从382x224monochrome screen to1920x1832的彩色屏幕,The interaction from the key at the end of game handle with both handsInside-out追踪,Calculate the force from dragging a heap of cable connectionPCto wireless all-in-one,Based on the development of the science and technology,20多年的时间,Generations of the product manager of genius like a jigsaw puzzle,A little spell out todayVR设备.
2. VRWhy equipment is the shape of the head show double handle
回顾了VRThe history of evolution of hardware,那么VRWhat is behind the user value？
众所周知,Personal computer is desktop equipment,Smartphones are holding in your hands can chuai pocket at ordinary times,Smart watches are wearing hand,唯独VRHead show must wear on the head.每一次讨论VR,Everyone will mention the currentVR设备太重,uncomfortable on the head、压脸.The future need to do more thin head show.这里我想问一个问题：我们为什么要把VR戴在头上？not on top,There is no massive problem.
The consensus view is put on the head to have 3 d immersive effect.That would be more one-sided.If only the pursuit of big screen3D效果,IMAX 3D就可以,索尼的3DTV is also available.if you want to fully understandVR,Our cognition can't just stay on the surface.
I want oneVR FPS（第一人称射击）游戏的案例.FPS无论是在手机上、电脑上、Household is very popular game on host species,比如《使命召唤》、《CS》、《守望先锋》,《绝地求生》等等,Then why are people still playingVR的FPS游戏呢？
Senior military enthusiasts coffee said so a word,“PCon the hardestFPSno gameVRThe most commonFPS游戏.”为什么？PCOn the game are operated with mouse and keyboard, FPSThe two most important actions,one is aiming,one is shooting,在PC上,How do you hard again,Can only rely on the mouse and keyboard through the screen.但是在 VR 里,We control is yourself,We can simulate the real gun action,Simulation of the real target motion.
I said why do we have to wear on the head？only on the head,It can catch your head position and trajectory in the space,And not only with the stereoscopic display effect.So you can get real vision,To make a real target motion.
VRheadset on head,Achieved three functions：第一,3DStereo display;第二,Simulate real vision to people;第三,Tracking the head position in space.
Here we ask the second question：VRDevice handle why are two？Answered the previous question,The answer to this question is obvious,Because of the need to capture the hands position in space.Spatial location information with both hands,VRYou can simulate a real gun.
Although the handle count from one to two,But there has been a qualitative change.
在此之前,Handle button is the nature of interaction,The user through the key control elements within a screen.但是在VR里,The essence of the handle trackers became the hands,The user to control their own hands to complete all kinds of action,And buttons as the interaction of complement.
在VRThere's a phrase in the game is very important,“you control yourself.”
Action games too,《The Thrill of the Fight》punch in,《VR Real Fishing》fishing in,《The Climb》climbing in,《VRChat》dance in,等等等等.
VR头显,In the past 50 years the interaction of a revolutionary update,The mouse and keyboard to handle to upgrade the controller button type 2 d interaction to your own head and hands for the controller to track type 3 d interaction.
VRThe head of the equipment show the form of add hands,exactly the new display、The results of the new interaction.
讲到这里,We have sufficient contrastVRHead of traditional and console devices of different,Everyone has to understand to this is a completely different two types of equipment.而VRGames also created a totally different from traditional console user value.
与其说 VR is a game console,不如说 VR Game is 3 d information technology and industry a combination of.现在所有的 VR游戏,真正做得好的VR 游戏,Are in use of 3 d information,In the game of create new mechanism.If the 2 d game mechanism is more through key proficiency of the pleasure,So 3 d game mechanics are closer to the real pleasure.
3 d this concept has a long history.Best served as a 2 d interaction company Microsoft,Once very early began to study the three dimensional interaction,比尔盖茨曾说过：“There is one thing that has been forecast for a long time,Is the 3 d when applied to the interface……3 d is a way to organize things,Especially when we can get much more media information in computer gradually,We have far more choices than before……The computer will play a more important function of central.That will be the user interface of a major change in.When we get the natural input,will cause changes.”
I shared about three-dimensional,I always talk about two concepts,False 3D and True 3D.What is fake three-dimensional？Fake 3 d is only from the level of display 3 d this thing.而今天VR之所以成立,Is from the display level into the interaction level.The three dimensional display and the three dimensional interactive form the day togetherVR的独特价值.
讲到这里,In fact, I had to tell me the core idea of：VR的本质是什么？It is a 3 d information technology revolution.By accessing and using the 3 d information transformation from all walks of life.And the immersive 3 d is not only a picture,Not only is a 3 d image display,But to get and simulating space objects in 3 d information,has its place,have it move,Then use the information to produce value.
展望未来,When we have a mature enough、When enough low-cost three-dimensional information technology,Will answer the ultimate question：What are the things in this world,Is a real need to exist in a physical entity？
4. VRFuture Evolution of Equipment
When we know these later,我们再去看Metaunderstanding of the future,Suddenly will clear up.
①The progress of the 3 d interactive information
在今年10月11日Meta发布的Quest Pro,We can clearly see it in two aspects has carried on the iteration.
The first is that it increased quite a lot of interaction,such as eye trackingeye-tracking ,then facial captureface-tracking ,Then it handles and sensors,Can capture the action of the legs.从这里,你可以看出MetaMany of the strategy is actually very good.It knows what trial and error is,it is tryingface-tracking,eye-tracking和body-tracking——In essence it in access to space more three-dimensional information.As for what's the use of this information,To the genius of the product manager to play.
简单和大家分享下,First up is eye tracking——A super useful function.I think there are three part eye tracking：
第一,Gather people's interests——where to look,changes in the pupil of the eye,no regard for the law、moral constraints,It can penetrate into your heart to collect your interest.
第二,Support the fixation point rendering technique,Save processor performance.where are you looking,Where the image was calculated according to.
第三,眼动交互,where are the eyes looking,Where you can directly give feedback,Instead I saw the object,Press the controller again.i tried eye movementdemo,Smooth experience is difficult to use language to express.估计过不了多久,“你瞅啥,瞅你咋地”就会在VR中上演了.
And then the legs of the motion capture,其实在VRChatThe application of the body in motion capture has a very wide range,Just a move to catch set the threshold of the thousands of pieces of price is very high.MetaSince the track if you can handle with pure visual solutions to capture your legs,Will be for the promotion of social a great.另外,Added leg snapping,Some new actions can unlock again,such as shooting、whirlwind legs and more.
另外还有hand-tracking,Although not fromProFeatures only from the beginning,但Meta从QuestGeneration began to optimize gesture tracking,SDK一直在不断更新,The evolution of the future is worth looking forward to.
The second big upgrade is colorPassthrough的MR,This is equivalent to directly capture the real 3 d environment data.有了MR空间透视,We can not only see the virtual world,You can also see the real world.It is equivalent to the processing of the three-dimensional world from the virtual world that extends to the real world.这样一来,We can interact with the virtual world,You can also interact and real world.This is likely to produce newuse case.Of course the original colorMRThere is also a resolution、A series of problems such as distortion.
②The progress of the 3 d information display
今年发售的Quest ProOn the display effect and no progress,而是利用PancakeTechnology has been slimmed down.
要看VRThe progress of the equipment on display also need to see more long-term prototype.Fortunately, zuckerberg shows a long timeMeta Reality LabsFour prototypes developed：The first realized the retina resolution,The second model realizes the zoom,Realized the real level in the third paragraphHDR,Meet in the fourth paragraph of the above features at the same time the light.
let's see todayVRThe implementation of 3 d visualization：It implements some stereo feeling and the big picture,But the touch of the see the world with our actual received or not.Zuckerberg mentioned four prototype,About the future direction of the display effect promotion.
For example zoom can realize what？We are the focus of the people to see the outside world is constantly changing,According to different decided to near and far clear and focus blur,但是现在的VRThe focal length of the equipment is usually fixed two meters,This can cause you to see something within one meter to see,Eyes will be uncomfortable for a long time;when looking at something far away, The visual effect also will not change with the change of focus.
Another example is the resolution,这里我们需要引入PPD（ Pixel Per Degree）的概念,Once per view Angle sizes,理论上VRTo reach the retina resolution,PPD需要超过60,而现在Quest 2的PPD大约是20多.今年,Alex Honnold 拍了一部 VR 纪录片《The Soloist》,Alex是Free Solo的男主角,The film tells the story of his after climbing records,In the interview he usedVRTechnology to film also said very excited,I later a complete finished product,Compared with what I have passed beforeIMAX看的Free Solo,客观地讲,VRThe experience of showing the effect of two-dimension does not form a crush,Even in some places it is better to display,比如FOV的限制、分辨率的限制.
So today to seeVRIn the direction of video application problems,Actually not these artists and entrepreneurs to do well,more questions stillVRhardware limitations,应该把HDR 、分辨率、Zoom all solve these things,才能达到VRThe degree of display technology of rolling display and television.The core driving force or hardware iterative.
I had a point last year,If use a personal computer and the development of smart phones in the past50years to compare,Quest 2大致相当于雅达利2600,Today's time, roughly equivalent to a1977年.It shows that the new generation of computing platform framework has been,And final form of the computing platform also did not form a standard.
I think good entrepreneurs should do today is to understand the existing equipment specification： Hardware vendors to help us get what 3 d information,哪些有用,哪些没用,Use the 3 d information what can create a new game new application,What need to get not get,What are the vertical scene is more suitable forVR.从这个角度来讲,I think the future of the decades is still very exciting,New stuff will be created.
5. ARHistorical Evolution of Equipment
看过了VR,我们再来看AR.总体来说,一方面,more people thinkARThere will be more broad application scenario,ARWill be a smartphone alternative;另一方面,大家普遍认为ARprogress will be slower,以至于AR的发展方向、use caseWill be more hard,don't even do itARHas been controversial.Fortunately, the past ten yearsARAlso had certain progress in the development of,We can make a little bit more clearly to do some analysis.
我们从2012年发布的Google Glass开始.Google GlassReleased after a failure.
Google Glass失败之后,generally believed to have3个问题：
第一,looks weird,poor public acceptance.
第二,Unclear value created：拍照、录像,Calls to display a message function contrast phone no significant convenience to promote.
第三,The possibility of the existence of the cameras will have privacy,arouse public resistance.
Learn the lesson of failure later,Subsequent product development appeared two route：
第一条路线,以Snapchat和Meta为代表,go extremely thin2C路线,力求将ARThe appearance of the glasses do like ordinary glasses as much as possible,As a fashion properties of product sales.在这个基础上,Moderate exploreuse case.The route of glasses products,我认为叫Smart Glass更为准确.
Smart Glass举例：Meta和Ray-BanThe glasses of cooperation
But as a result of not revolutionaryAR产品,Impact on industry development are relatively limited.
From the application layer,Domestic start-ups more active.Domestic glasses have been able to do it today80doc even lower,Also did a screencast、Assisting the Hearing Impaired、Such as the navigation features of vertical products.
There need to face the challenge of：第一,Slightly to add the function of the intelligent glasses will lead to the increase of the weight and volume.limited by physics,目前ARGlasses can't fully be self-respect20~30克左右,Can't reach wearing comfort are similar to ordinary glasses.第二,Under the restrictions of general requirements very thin,The ability to add function also is very limited,But at the same time competing with other equipment needs and existing,e.g. translation stick、助听器、运动相机等.
The route to participate in domestic many players,But this route is accurate,We would have been verified in succession in recent years.
第二条路线,Do not pursue extreme thinness,Exploring in the vertical sceneuse case,Can hedge the modelling is weird and privacy issues.
Representatives of this route areHololens和Magic Leap.Both the cumulative investment in the level of billions of dollars.The developing course of them have one thing in common ：一开始Cend did not go through,最终回到B端,And in big losses for a long time,Need to constantly rely on billions of dollars' worth of external funding to survive.
说到Hololens,There is also a contemporary outstanding product manager,Alex Kipman——Kinect之父,Hololens之父,As well as good products come from domestic host era manager,Throughout his career to achieve the next generation of interactive.在Kinect之后,In order to realize the real 3 d interaction,提出了Hololens的构思,有传言说HololensThe code is the earliestKinect Glass,Alex在深耕XR领域8年后,progress is still not ideal,最终于2022年6Yue resigned sadly,离开了服务20年的微软.
In addition to the opticalAR,彩色的Passthrough又为AR提供了一种新的方案,Through the camera to see the real world.这是Meta Quest ProFeatures to be verified,Zuckerberg wants to through its application in many office scene.这种形态的AR优点在于,可以借助VRThe existing work force and display,With lower cost to achieve similar opticalAR的效果.However, the real show is in through camera capture rather than optical through,会带来延迟、畸变、Disadvantages such as low resolution.从某种角度来看,Quest ProThe overall specs are a bit likeVR版的Hololens.
6. ARThe main challenges of the device
简单讲完了ARequipment history,我们再来回答AR为什么比VRslower this thing.Will tell from the characteristics of the side products,AR比VR多了两个特性.It is not only need to interact with the virtual world,Also need to interact with the real world to do,Second, you need to get out of the house,全天候使用.And these two properties,Behind is the two great challenge.
第一,因为ARNeed to interact with the real world,So you can't use the existing display technology,ARNeed a new optical and display technology.跟VRCan be directly through phone mature supply chain is different,AROptical waveguide technology as well as the display to be usedMicroLEDAre now mobile phone can provide supply chain,Technology and material of the two parts needed are in research and development in the early stages of again,造成的结果就是ARHeadsets are expensive.
同时AR需要识别、Understand the things in the real world,This puts forward new requirements to calculate the force and,And the need to increase the sensor,This further increases the cost and volume.以Hololens举例,一台需要3500美金,对比Quest 2 399US dollar selling price,almost expensive10倍.
第二,因为ARNeed to wear out the street,Wear it all day,The appearance of the equipment requires more frivolous.while human glasses pass200Developed in the development of the glasses is the best weight20多克,墨镜30多克.This directly takes the idealARGlasses of volume weight requirements to outrageous levels.要知道Quest 2目前也需要500多克.and mature consumersARGlasses one requirement is that dozens of g,This direct ratioVRrequirements have increased10倍.And to achieve the volume and weight of extreme thin,Will need to break through a large number of physical restrictions,This isn't a product appearance or change code can be achieved.
我们做产品,often say a word,叫PMF（Product Market Fit）,Is what we are doing product only fit the verified its market to expand sales on the basis of production,而在此之前,Any expansion of sales and marketing are shouldn't,而PMFIt is the middle measure.
找到PMF很难,But in a long time dimension,比如十年,I believe that genius is product managers and engineers can be found.
But when we have the product managers and engineers of genius,还是找不到PMF,这是为什么呢？
Here I want to put forward a new concept,叫TMF（Technology Market Fit）.Under a longer historical dimension,M其实一直都在,但如果T不够ready,Even with product managers and engineers of genius,也无法完成F,Therefore the plannedP也不会出现.And each time genius product manager and engineer's mission is to：use the timeT,完成F,form greatP,so an eraP=TMF.
ARThe reason why the industry is difficult,难就难在T（Technology）不 ready,而TNot a genius product managers and engineers can solve,Everyone is waiting for the turning point of arrival.
回到现在,我们再看ARThe development of the rhythm is more clear than the beginning.Considering the limitations of science and technology in the current,We will know we currently there is no basis to sayARsoon to be replacediPhone,需要做OS,需要做一个universal的设备,Because far short of science and technology.I don't think we are far from toAR眼镜的iPhone时代,也不是iPod时代,也不是Palm时代,Pragmatic goal now is to do aWalkman.To limited work force balance weight、体积、续航、散热,Find a business founded onuse case,will be the current entryARGlasses players Shared challenges.
再看未来,The full of imagination of the next generation computing platformAR眼镜,Clearly not only the people of the third screen,ARNeed to use more advanced optical technology、显示技术、算力和AI,Access to information for the 3 d real world、信息分析、信息计算、信息展示.从这个角度来说,VR和AR其实都是一码事,Its core is to solve the three dimensional information obtain and make use of.
什么时候用到VRwhen to useARI think it is based on user needs to decide.If you need to interact with the real world,你就用AR;如果不需要,就用VR.This is from the user's point of view to think about the conclusion.终极形态的AR更像是VR的延展.如果一定要对ARTo the nature of the next definition,我会觉得AR是无处不在、Mix 3 d information technology revolution.
Finally, I must mention：I think we don't put the train of thought is always limited to the glasses、headset up.事实上,Our life was inAR改变了.Such as sweeping robot and new energy cars.从技术上,You will find that the depth of the sensor、雷达、摄像头这些AR和VRtechnology used on,On sweeping robot and new energy cars are equally applicable.In terms of product function,They get location information of object in space,通过分析、Calculate the information instruction is given,Makes the robot automatic sweep the floor,Electric vehicle automated driving possible,No problem to obtain and make use of 3 d information to create a new user value.
Musk in his latestAI Day上公布了Tesla Optimus机器人,This robot appliesAGI（通用人工智能）,Can be expected is that it can collect more 3 d information of the real world、Make more judgment.Let's think againOculus的前CTO,3D游戏之父John Carmack,Resignation of entrepreneurship is also doAGI.你看看,殊途同归吧.
另外,I still want to mention what is yuan universe.
我认为,The metaverse is not a racing track,也不是技术,but a vision.Yuan of the universe is one of the 3 d information technology revolution vision.Yuan is the universe depends on the height of the development of information technology,In the future finally presents a kind of digital information products form.
Facebooklast year renamedMeta,我认为是FacebookSee the 3 d information technology revolution vision,Think about the people in the yuan social life in the universe,people to people becauseVR、ARTechnical contact each other more closely.Here we can read theOculus的Misson以供参考：Our mission is to enable people to have meaningful interactions regardless of physical distance.
今年下半年,Zuckerberg because a picture of a roughAvatarridiculed by global media,Many people who think for industry are not familiar withMetaThe metaverse ofHorizon Worlds,have expressed disapproval,并质疑Meta花了100What did the billion dollars do?,attack all of a sudden.In fact this is a huge misunderstanding.
在Meta的Reality LabsInside hidden dragon and crouching tiger,There is no lack of obediencePC时代、The Internet age established world-class great god,They use a lifetime studies in promote the development of 3 d information technology.Reality Labsoptics、显示、计算机视觉、音频、图形、交互、Operating system such as the underlying technology accumulation,There are also dozensVR/ARProduct exploration of prototypes,还有大量VR游戏工作室的收购.我们目前看到的Quest 2和Horizon WorldsOnly the application layer of the tip of the iceberg.MetaIs actually made a lot of infrastructure work in promoting the industry forward.
可以预见的是,As the 3 d information technology infrastructure work constantly,In the framework of a 3 d information technology revolution down to see,社交、娱乐、运动、教育、生产力、3 d information from all walks of life will be obtain and make use of,Every field has a similar yuan in the field of vision of the universe,The 3 d information will produce what kind of value,Imagination is very very.
so i want to say,Real yuan universe also need more people to participate to the construction of.
I told you so much history,derived so much,let's go back to the source,what else do i want to say,Is that we should be in a kind of what kind of mentality and way to participate in the 3 d information technology revolution.
1. The rhythm of the reasonable expectations and correct
大家都说Quest 2now a game console,也对,也不对.As long as you are into this industry,从用户侧,You will find all walks of lifeearly adopters已经出现.Maybe this year because of the environment andMetaShares fell RMB do you think the concept of the universe now,实际上整个VR行业的early adoptersare growing.Head games and application of the company are nice to live,增长也还不错.
I can expand a little bit about the,Because it involves the wholeXR行业的进展.说到early adopters,Have to mention five populations in crossing the chasm theory,分别是innovators（创新者）、early adopters（早期使用者）、early majority（早期大众）、late majority（晚期大众）和laggards（落后者）.
Today we speak of the early market first divide,Here is mainly about two kinds of people,innovators和early adopters.InnovatorsIs the feature of fanatical technology lovers,Popular point is as long as it is a new technology products, he will be the first to buy,As to have no is not the primary consideration.Early adoptersAnd the former is the biggest difference,This group requires products must be useful,To enjoy the new technology to bring value to ahead,For this they can pay a higher cost;if this thing doesn't work,they won't buy.
So did measure a product into the early market standard,就看它有没有early adopters进来.And the first we need to overcome a gap appears ininnovators和early adopters之间.可以说Oculus的诞生,in the true senseVR从innovators推进到了early adopters阶段.
Our notion of vc circle is in the grip of todayinnovators手里的：Media resources become well-known investor,知名大V等倾斜.Share theinnovatorsMost of the time is not the actual userearly adopters,这就会造成一个问题：they tend to logically、Valuation and its own interests to deduction the value of a product or technology,Instead of starting from the actual user value.
when the environment is good,innovatorsWill try very hard to preachVRIs going to change the world,Anyway, they never don't really know：VRFor most people do wear will be uncomfortable for a long time,Content of ecological really still in the early days,From the product specification and great progress space.when the environment is bad,They tried to discreditVR是个泡沫,Anyway, they never don't really know：VR对于一部分人来讲,Use frequency is very high,Every day can play for hours.《VRChat》There are a lot of users cumulative use over1000个小时,《Contractors》Users daily use one60分钟.至于有人说VR很晕,we usually have a smile.
when you know enough,你会发现VRown rhythm,has been moving forward in controversy.我认为,today to understandVR行业,don't just followinnovators待在一起,而需要在early adoptersspend time on body,Listen to their feedback and comments.I most like to ask three questions of man,你用Quest 2吗,what have you played,Tell the advantages and disadvantages of these content.99%people can't survive this3个问题.
顺便再说一下,从early adopters阶段到early majorityPhase will have a larger gap.Early majorityare pragmatists,He with the biggest difference is that the former do not want to become white mouse,When new technology is not perfect,He is not willing to side effects and risks,He only wants mature products,非常注重性价比.Cross the chasm,Twenty years is the next ten years or even fifty yearsVR和AR需要面临的挑战.
I have such an opinion,VR和ARLooking at the progress of hard technology in the long run,The progress of the medium term hardware products,Short-term look at content and applications.
长期来看,Speaking of big inflection points,Most entrepreneurs cannot be controlled,We can only be thankful not living in an age of horizontal well the flat.We can see a motion capture technology can break through,Optical and display technology will progress,Chip computing power will be stronger,AIAlgorithm will be more advanced.Zuckerberg through that a few prototype shows the possibility of future：更高的分辨率、HDR 、zoom etc.,These are promising 2030 got it done years ago.
当然,十年时间,The people of the faith does not easy to insist on down.不过,I think you should ask yourself is,If the objective is to need the time to develop,If you can bear the mission of this generation？As if from PCS to smartphones over the past 50 years the development of,You can choose a work into the era of smart phones？
In fact also need not too pessimistic.比如Game Boythen early devices,so limited functionality,The world also sold one hundred million units,As well-known was born until nowIP Pokemon.So we wouldn't have thought so much,What's not importune must sell each year,Also don't have to bet apple will next year related equipment.we look at the long term,From a ten-year perspective,AR/VR设备在2030Years ago or is likely to reach hundreds of millions of Taiwan market,2025Reach tens of millions of Taiwan market,This is already very good,This means that the content and applications do entrepreneurs can have $billions and billions of dollars of the company's chance.
2. be a real entrepreneur
在VR圈里,有这样一个段子：Many workers neverVR,而VR应用的开发者,Only in the test your application,Will only be used for a period of time.
The first time I listen to laugh,But I found that not onlyXR圈,The entire venture capital circle has a similar problem.This phenomenon is rare in before,very common nowadays.Maybe it's the past20years of full development,China's venture capital circle bad more and more.
I put them in the same class comes down to people.有这样一类人,Talk about user experience,But to do has nothing to do with the user experience,Say user first,But don't even know who is your own user.有这样一类人,talk about deep thinking,But I never know how deep is deep.有这样一类人,The giant mouth spray to pieces,For giant do things never really know.有这样一类人,humble mouth,but always talk,In the face of negative feedback,never heard.有这样一类人,Learning only stay in the reading public,,Ignore the real professional knowledge of study.有这样一类人,Talk about valuing talents,Someone to spend the time always less than10%,Management methods will only build.
These people all have a common characteristic,just from the report、Know some words from the chat、大词,But they know that only these words itself.They could not all cognitive behind these words and phrases from the abstract to the concrete process,Not to mention practice,let alone progress,Forever at a low level repeated.These people are nominally entrepreneurs、产品经理、管理者……But didn't know anything about the real knowledge and skills.
We must alert to become this person.
but there is another kind of people,His mouth never speak user first,Mind thinking are user requirements,To the user know the scene in the chest.Though not speak deep thinking,But for the professional questions you never fail him.never talk about management,But for the build team have time.Never show off how much he read a book,Every once in a while you find his cognition on the floor again.
从具体到抽象,从抽象到具体,从实践到理论,从理论到实践,they cycle over and over、Practice repeatedly.
They are the real product manager,创业者、管理者.
3. From 2 d information technology revolution to the 3 d information technology revolution
今年以来,To get into the industry increased significantly.The first foreign market significantly faster than domestic progress、invest more,pure contentVRHappened at the company level of tens of millions of dollars of financing for several times.In addition to byte release in ChinaPico4,This year Tencent also establishedXR团队,Meituan dragon capital is invested in Mr. Luo's latestAR项目.Although this year because of the global economic environment under pressure,行业发展不好,但总体上来说,从去年8月到今年8月,Enter the team more and more,越来越专业.
Back to obtain and make use of 3 d information,我的建议是：Don't get past experience to,what immersion、多人联机,because it was there before.We want to pass the application of 3 d information can create different from before what value？This is genius product managers and engineers need time to answer the question.I used to worry toouse case的事情,But I later found out that this is precisely the time to do things.
Quest 2Potential has not been actually discover the,哪怕在Meta内部,真正懂VR和ARnot many people,Many are still used for 2 dAppway to do things.Can truly have the interdisciplinary critical thinking、Can jump out again to cognitive new technology、Create a new cross product of The Times people worldwide are rarely.Only after this enough to tong broke,The industry will accelerate development.But now we from the source,Some people in key position occupied resources,There exist serious path dependence,They don't talk about 3 d information,still in use20Years of experience with a hammer looking for nail state.
We are literally opens at an article on the yuan universe,About social、multiplayer、speak online、讲 UGC、 讲 AIGC……It is half a word mentioned 3 d？How to use these 3 d information did not mention,You put it in full after replacing the,You'll find your phone and PCAlso can do these things,Where is the new value?？Is not the point.
we passed50年,Experience is a two-dimensional information technology revolution,我们未来50年,To experience more exciting 3 d information technology revolution.we passed50Years continuously to acquisition processing output two-dimensional information.From words to pictures to video to short video are two dimensional,A short video can be regarded as two-dimensional information using the perfection of.The two-dimensional information technology revolution and industry to do,改变了很多行业.But the two-dimensional computing devices are not able to put the three dimensional space to collect all the 3 d information from,3 d information technology revolution has only just begun.
I think our future very likely see products we've never seen.But why haven't come out？On the one hand is the hardware is not so perfect.On the other hand is a mainstream industry till now didn't understand what is 3 d or 2 d information,They still use the old vision to look at new things.
Personal computer era has a famous Andy-比尔定律,原话是“Andy gives, Bill takes away.”安迪-beer's law is rightIT产业中软件和硬件升级换代关系的一个概括.安迪指英特尔前CEO安迪·格鲁夫,比尔指微软前任CEO比尔·盖茨,这句话的意思是,硬件提高的性能,很快被软件消耗掉了.
The law of original intention is ironic developers do not understand optimization,wasted hardware performance.But we also can change an Angle to understand,Is the hardware upgrade every time new features,Need to be a genius product managers and engineers make full use of.Mark zuckerberg provides todayVR设备,Also need global product managers and engineers to keep up with.
I see in the global market,Some parts of Europe for example, some innovative,In all walks of life to try,And has been doing very well in some places.在中国,some pragmatic and excellentVREntrepreneurs also gradually emerging.Last month, Liu Hanyang and I（VR动作游戏《Battle Talent》制作人,The game has broken100万用户）聊天,他说：
“我觉得《Boneworks》Better at the mechanical level,更能代表VRwhere the game is headed,Nature has a higher product power law,asymmetric.如果把《Half-Life：Alyx》The same resources are used in《Boneworks》上,I believe the effect is much better.Alyx可以说是2016Years based on transmitting ideas makeVRThe top of my game experience,But has fallen behind then free to move+physically interactive games,代表作有《Blade & Sorcery》《Boneworks》《Saints & Sinners》,All is a model of small make big success.They all is the product of the community from the bottom up,The big output of best practices has proven to be completely is not applicable to.”
就在刚刚过去的9月,caveman studio（Caveman Studio）的VR FPS作品《Contractors》Updated the new version,在Meta Quest StoreGlobal pricing list to the world's fifth ranked,Currently stable in the top ten,Every over rival《Onward》,Completed the first from ChinaVR FPSto number one in the worldVR FPS的蜕变.
When it comes to making concept,老丁（Caveman founder Ding Weihan）说,“USES the action climbed the ladder to analogy we do game,一开始,let's make a ladder first,we can climb up,After the financing is rich,We can climb the ladder of the results make more realistic,like holding a ladder,The ladder may shake.过去五年,我们完成了VR FPSThe transition from plane to solid.”
talking about future plans,老丁说：“today we playVR的FPS游戏,a bullet is coming at you,you'll dodge right away,then fight back.五年后的VRThe game will become another way”,He pointed to the dining room table,“here comes the bullet,You may first want to not fight back,But will hide under the table,Even the table with the hand down as a shield,then fight back.”
XRit's still early today,3 d information technology revolution has only just begun,When I saw a handful of people in a small community vigorously explore the future,探讨着VR和AR如何改变世界,How to use the 3 d information technology to create unprecedented products and unprecedented life.
It feels like back to1998年、1999年,At that time, the people who play the Internet is also actually less.Today's well-known entrepreneurs ma、丁磊,At the time of identity is a net friend,we all know each other,都在一个BBS 里,也是蛮小众的.playing games as a child、玩电脑、上网,also considered unprofessional.但二十年后,The Internet profoundly changed every aspect of our lives,Also the legend of the achievement a great enterprise.
The philosopher plekhanov in《Theory of personal role in the history》Had in-depth discussion is a hero is known in the time of misfortune or heroes create The Times,他最后发现,The general trend of history is determined by the objective of social development stage,The luminaries decided to overall trends specific features.Although the overall trend is not a personal history can control,But elite often can speed up or slow down the coming of the great historical events,And may our own mark.
过去二十年,China produced a large number of excellent engineers and product managers.I once and friends speak,3 d information technology revolution is a systemic chance,Perhaps only it can systematically carry on the past two decades the Internet develop talent,The future everyone will actively or passively to join in the revolution.
今天,We have the opportunity to also have the ability to shape belongs to the future of our 3 d information technology revolution,Create an unprecedented products and application,每每想到这里,我都激动不已.
Let's take the opportunity of time,Blazed his own mark,Writing a golden age in life
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