Blockchain revolution or blockchain scam? Overview of current encryption Market

Block unicorn 2022-06-23 17:52:36 阅读数:772

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2020 Years and 2021 The last double bull cycle of the year is characterized by “ narrative ” Take the lead , A new and excellent project token is determined by their marketing and meme quality , Trading companies turned to... In the first part VC, Part II anonymous influencers in 2017 The traditional venture capital market dominated in .

We see from  DeFi、NFT、DAO、 L2( On the second floor ), Play and earn Metaverse, To Web3, Then back NFT,L1( Layer 1 main network ) The war spanned the last 5 A common narrative . The cryptocurrency sector is seizing new narratives to justify the deployment of new capital , To satisfy investors' appetite for huge returns , Early returns are fundamentally possible , But now only by reducing complex capital , To act as a gradual exit from liquidity for each former holder .

Many years ago , I would consider it a shame , Misallocation of capital with no productive value , Predatory get rich from dreams TikTok Users withdraw stimulating checks from , To get rid of the monotonous life day after day . Every industry has low-level employees , today , My ideas are very different . I see each bull market cycle as the embodiment of the natural life cycle in the animal kingdom , There we have a greedy food chain , Eaten by a slightly clever but equally greedy self . Ugly but inevitable , I now believe in encryption acceleration .

these years , We have been unable to learn from logic 、 Reasoning or any form of oral dialectics has made progress in the industry . We can only learn by witnessing the results of most experiments that are doomed to failure ( Although some experiments did succeed , At least for now ). The debate between small blocks and large blocks ,PoW  And  PoS, This PoS With that PoS, This L1 With that L1,L1 And L2,(3,3) And (-3,-3),Punks And Apes,DOGE And SHIB, CLOB And AMM wait , If you don't really see their performance in reality , It can't be solved .

More about Mechanism Design 、 Draw the model and direction 、 Theories that use historical analogies or hard core words cannot persuade a community to give up their holy cow and join another industry . As an industry , We must experience good and bad from the heart , What works , What doesn't work , Until it integrates into the spirit of our times , Form our collective memory , Then we can move on .

The introduction of jargon is an interesting development in encryption culture , In areas of traditional protection and limited supply, such as medicine and law , Jargon has a dual purpose .

First , When communication parties share an understanding language library , It can save time . secondly , It prevents outsiders from easily extracting “ proper ” Values belonging to insiders . In cryptocurrencies , It's no different . As we become a richer industry , We further disguise ourselves with internal terms , So dirty outsiders can't come to our lunch . This should lead to more mergers and acquisitions , Because non encryption companies without in-house expertise want to penetrate this lucrative but very difficult field . I don't make standard judgment here. It's good or bad , It's natural .

Capital allocation always lags behind the emergence of new things and innovations , During the bull market cycle , More and more capital is chasing lower and lower quality projects . Entrepreneurs and swindlers are happy to start new, half baked ideas , Create supply to meet the new legal currency that is about to enter the field ( new user ) The needs of .

It is when the anti narrative Naked Emperor is afraid of strong opposition from horse beehives and bags , When people start self censorship to the greatest extent , This narrative achieves the greatest upward reflection . At the height of the frenzy , People only buy what they think they can pass on to the next marginal buyer ; Valuations become absurd , Common sense is drowned by the wave of tribal chants and rain dances , So that the price rises . If it weren't for the turning point of the macro environment , We may have reached a more absurd height , Fanaticism has not yet reached its natural peak .

As the tide changes , Whether in the field of encryption or beyond our coast ,“ narrative ” Are weakened , Many projects have been exposed as scams at best ; In the worst case , A complete scam . When madness becomes the rule , Subtle differences and careful consideration will be labeled as heresy . Only in “ narrative ” After weakening , These ideas can be published , Without being regulated by wrong ideas .

at present , For the industry , Alternative tokens are still a little too rich , Market pricing seems reasonable . The Fed's interest rate hike was initially considered not entirely credible and ignored , But now most people believe and are digested . Further new developments in hawkish sentiment at the Fed led to a slight decline , Soon bought . It seems that this year's interest rate hike 4 To 5 Time , No more, no more , At least in the current expectation . Speculative alternatives  BTC  and  ETH  And other major assets have fallen , But not as good as 2018 The year is serious . encryption VC Most of the third or fourth huge amount of money raised may flow to new projects , Not the old projects they've always owned . If macro improvement , Capital may be obtained from new projects 10 Times or 100 times , But old projects may not get the same order of growth from here .

Scams and utopianism

I've been thinking about two new dimensions lately , We can classify all kinds of passwords in it : Scams and utopianism . for example , In the fraud dimension , In my submission OHM No, TIME serious , and TIME No, OHM Serious bifurcation . Now I don't make any absolute statement about the rough degree of each project , It is a relative term , They can be sorted reasonably in this way . Generally speaking , The rule is that the copy is rougher than the original . In the utopian dimension , An example is BTC Not as good as ETH utopia , and ETH No, SOL、LUNA、AVAX And other new L1 So Utopian . Generally speaking , The rule is that new projects try to “ solve ” Problems inherent in old projects , So more Utopian . Now we understand these dimensions , We can talk about investability 、 Rate of return 、 as well as 4 Time to consider each of the projects :

1) vulgar 、 Low Utopianism .

2) vulgar , High Utopia .

3) Gao fukua , Low Utopianism .

4) High difficulty ; A high degree of utopianism .

DeFi

1 project ( Low end scam 、 Low Utopianism )

1 Representing a project is an honest effort to solve solvable problems , Without some basic scientific or technological breakthrough . for example ( In the past ) Cryptocurrency exchange 、 New cryptocurrency infrastructure , And possibly some early successful cryptocurrencies , Such as BTC. These are often good long-term investments , At the same time, it is considered to be short-term and inappropriate , Especially in the frenzy of the bull market .

2 project ( Low end scam 、 High utopianism )

2 Represents an honest effort to build a grand design project , To guide us into a brave new world . These designs usually require at least one, but sometimes multiple technological breakthroughs are required to work . You often find that , Supporters of these projects will attack and discard projects 1 Projects in China , Because that's not enough to prove why their project 2 The first is necessary .

Only if the existing world is seriously flawed , Utopia is worth pursuing . project 2 It's often a good investment in the early stages , Because the founders are serious , And it's approved . This allows the creation of Founder myths , And it should last long enough to get at least one or two rounds of financing . At a later stage , Only by making breakthroughs and “ Realization ” utopia , These projects are good investments . It is unclear whether these Utopian pursuits will succeed , To make up for all the failed investments , VCs only need to bet on one of the projects to win .

Part of the game here is to let 2 The project looks as much like 1 project . This makes the project look less risky , And make investors feel better . From the perspective of game theory and mechanism design , The real requirements of breakthrough are often waved away , And the proposed design is constantly reaffirmed , To be completely feasible and compatible with perfect incentives . These are 1 Higher risk of the project 、 Higher return analogues , There are differences on risk , But there are no differences on potential returns .

It is unclear whether these Utopian pursuits will succeed , But VCs only need a few of them to win , To make up for all the losers . Part of the game here is to let 2 The project looks as much like 1 project . This makes the project look less risky , And make investors feel better .

3 project ( Gao fukua , Low Utopianism )

3 Represents the implementation of weak money plunder projects , An example of this is Bitconnect(2018 The scam project in ). Everyone in this environment is obviously , It's a scam . That's why Bitconnect Target people outside the encryption community , Frankly speaking, the overall reason is not too complicated , For people who are not too complicated , 3 The project seems more Utopian , That's what these projects want to do , And projects 2 inosculate as a whole . Final , Utopianism often covers up deception . That's why the project 3 Represents the worst situation in our industry , A real bottom harvester , Greedy people cheat stupid people . The collapse of the project is the final reason for regulators to prove stricter regulation of the whole environment . You can think of any other project in the encryption environment now , Do they deliberately target only people outside the environment ? If it quacks like a duck .

4 ( Highly pompous 、 Highly Utopian )

4 Represents the of our industry Rube Goldberg( Complex mechanical device combination ) Machines and perpetual motion machines , They're like projects 3 equally . Well executed , Even industry insiders find it difficult to reason about these complex devices , Even skeptics can only conclude ,“ It may not work , But maybe it works , Because I can't fully determine the problem ”.Gordian Knot Is there a loose end ? Can you untie it ? The first 4 The project tries to pretend to be in the first 2 project . as time goes on , If the project is successful in the short term , They are likely to actually try to turn the scam into a real business and move to the 2 project .

WeWork( Shared office enterprise )  And hilaros ( A scam of examining the body with a drop of blood ) What's the difference between ? The former starts from 4 The project is migrated to 2 project , The latter did not do so . comprehensive 4 The project is a good short-term investment for many people in this field , Sad but true . Part of the reason is that project tokens can achieve liquidity faster than private companies in the past , They can effectively “ IPO ”. All incentives for listed companies are accompanied by “ list ” And come : Short term oriented for the next few quarters , The founder can decide whether the product is really effective or whether it has real 、 The market fit of non subsidized products is revealed before retirement , Especially when using the token itself to pay for the use . Most seemingly successful encryption projects are 4 project , Because the incentive to cash quickly is too great , Participants cannot ignore . founder 、 staff 、 investors 、 Traders 、 exchange 、 Market maker 、 Over the counter 、SAFT slingers、 The lawyer 、 Other third-party service providers are from these 4 Benefit from the scam of the project . The only person who didn't benefit was the last one to get on the bus , Sitting in their rotten car and drinking their favorite drinks , Desperately adhere to a utopian dream , This dream is made by people who are smarter than themselves 、 The darker ones sold them .

I found these illusory and utopian dimensions , It has great explanatory power for the phenomena we see in this environment , Cycle after cycle . To make a long story short , project 1 It's a long-term project , But not for the short term .

project 2 Pretend to be a project 1, If they solve a problem that may not have a solution , You can move to the project 1.  project 2 It is profitable in the short term , In the long run, it has higher risk and higher return . project 3 Pretend to be a project 2, But camouflage is only effective for immature users . The first 4 The project pretends to be the first 2 project , If they want to cover up their ass and become legal after some initial success , They may move to the third 2 project . If you only care about money , They are by far the best short-term investments , Venture capital benefits from a lot of arbitrage here .

NFT

We're basically away from trading NFT And NFT Related tokens . We don't think we have enough competitive advantage to play that game . In terms of Aesthetics , We don't have good taste . In terms of the importance of imitation , We don't have enough Twitter followers , For this reason, a large number of market transactions cannot be provided .

First , Let's look at art and NFT Type of avatar . Because they are status / Signal symbol 、 Veblen / Luxury goods or heirlooms / Prestige items , We can say that some of them will remain valuable for a long time . Just like there are a dozen or two top fashion companies in the real environment , We can see a similar number of NFT The series has enough brand value to maintain . That being the case , Top fashion companies certainly don't have 1000 A number of , So most NFT The series may not be of much value . therefore , at best , We have a power-law distribution where a winner gets the most value . We can also argue that , Status symbols are only useful when they are shown to others . For fashion brands in real environment , This will be limited to the flow of people relying on the wearer's real space .

With  NFT, This will be limited to  Twitter  and  Discord  Wait for social media . It's hard to say which display space will be larger , Although the virtual world is broader than the physical world, it is a reasonable argument , especially  Twitter  and  Instagram  Integration is active  NFT  function , Especially when people spend more and more time online . Again ,NFT The performance of avatar is better than that of general art   No wonder , Because they play a better role as avatars of online identity . For all that , Still invest cautiously  NFT, Because in all recent narratives , Fraud is most concentrated in this industry .

secondly , I do think it's similar to LOOKS Vampire attacks have some reasonable opportunities to gain market share . They can directly locate the correct demographic data , This will be the perfect user of their platform . That being the case ,LOOKS The price and market value of have fallen sharply recently , Most of the transaction volume is brush volume , The founders have been cashing out . If it's all a hoax , Considering that the team is anonymous , And the token price has been in a very short time , Reached a very high price , No wonder . For all that , Has more than NFT The idea of trading platform competition is still very meaningful , Because the cost is high and there is room for competition . Besides , There is no liquidity network effect similar to the order book , Therefore, challengers are more likely to compete with existing enterprises .

Last , When it comes to non art, non NFT When the avatar , Design space is largely unexplored . I think the expedition is worth it . Like all new paradigms , Most of them may be nonsense , But I am optimistic that people will find something good and useful here .

L1s( A layer of public chain )

Because the technical advantage is completely irrelevant , Until it finally looks up at some uncertain time in the future , We shouldn't waste time on this . I just want to say , Each is different L1 What kind of configuration file is perfectly reasonable .HFT Chicago props prefer SOL, Koreans prefer LUNA. Graduate students prefer AVAX( After all, this is the only professor token that performs well ). Andre (AC) My disciples prefer FTM.VC Prefer all L1s, because , Just bet on a public chain ,VC You can go back to the book . Sometimes it's like NEAR Such a small L1, Because when its market value is still small , There are billions of dollars to grow .

ETH Extremists are now with the old BTC Extremists are in the same camp , Because they try to resist from “ new ” Project attack . Generally speaking , Their defense has been unsuccessful , Because people like shiny new things . Something new , Your greatest hopes and dreams are possible ; With the development of things , You can only see the cold reality of the actual situation .

Behind the scenes of utopianism are the truth of human nature and the barbarism of ugly truth . Our natural desire for a perfect world , And take advantage of our eager nature in others . Last , Need one Girardian Scapegoats to satisfy true believers , Become a violent and disillusioned mob , They are better able to fulfil this role than prophets who promise that they will never be fulfilled . This is not to say that L1 It won't work , But the founders are very aware of the sword of Damocles that has been hanging over their heads . It's better to win , The second best way is to constantly make greater trade-offs on the principle of decentralization , Because it doesn't matter until it happens , Who knows when it will happen , And whether it will happen . Maybe we're all just afraid Boogeyman; Maybe not .

When we reshape the financial and monetary systems , We began to sympathize with the past Fed Chairman . The Fed chairman doesn't want the economy to explode under their surveillance , So why not put the blame on the next person , Kick the jar down .

in any case , Best wish L1 win victory . Considering participants makes all incentives useful , That's what I'm going to say . Not everyone likes Technology , in fact , There is not much . Maybe we're all just afraid Boogeyman; Maybe not .

At this point , I've been waiting for 7 More than years , I dare not even ask if we will deliver it to Ethereum this year PoS. What happens first :ETH 2.0 Or reawaken the frozen market ? ha-ha , Who knows .

When it comes to cross chain bridges , The main challenge is to ensure that synthetic assets on a chain are not arbitrarily reissued without properly supporting the original chain , And the transmission process is safe . We have recently witnessed SOL and ETH The wormhole between , This is due to the problem of the former . I'm not particularly concerned about this weakness , Because it's just a bug that can be fixed .SOL Wormhole holes are Jump Crypto Rescued , Although it may be a lot of their own money , If the bridge is allowed to fail , their SOL The purse will lose a lot of value , I'm sure they'll take their pound of flesh from the rescue structure . however , Don't care too much . however , Even if the code is perfectly written , If the general bridge has a basic problem , What I would worry about is , Wait and see . Besides , Even today's bridges are quite centralized , As long as there is a way to eventually decentralize without compromising security , There should be no problem , We'll see , I will keep my doubts .

Decentralized Finance

DeFi 2.0 Be similar to DeFi 1.0, but 2 Greater than 1,numba( Open source JIT compiler ) The bigger the better .DeFi 2.0 The characteristic of is to let the agreement itself 、 Control or own assets . Sometimes it is called PCV( Agreement control value ) or POL( The liquidity of the agreement ) Or any other name . The idea is the same , You have one now DeFi agreement , It also runs a hedge fund , Good idea or bad idea ? Leave it to the reader to decide , Now the agreement holds other agreement tokens in the Treasury and participates in each other's governance voting .

We are entering the era of systematic risk .

For a larger portfolio network , Or say , from 2008 Structured products before the 2008 crisis are highly computational CDO product , This relatively small TIME-MIM-LUNA Is slicing easier to reason ? Great composability , It allows previously impossible things to happen , But we need to be careful , Because systemic risks will accumulate over time , And entangled protocols are becoming more and more difficult to reason . besides , The same shit , Bigger numbers .

Play and earn

You work to make money , You spend your money on games , Isn't that always the case ? Work is essentially something you don't do out of your own will , And you'll get paid for doing these unpopular tasks . The game is essentially something you do voluntarily , Because you like it , May even be willing to pay for it .

that P2E( Making money while playing ) What the hell is it ? If you are a person who earns world of warcraft gold coins for a living , That's work . If you play Warcraft and enjoy world of Warcraft , Then you have to find the person who produces world of warcraft gold coins to buy gold coins , That's playing . stay P2E in , People use wild nomenclature again , This is a catchphrase that sounds cool , Make you look like you can eat cake or . In most games , Someone works to make money , Someone pays for playing games , There is little overlap between the two groups .

In most “ P2E ” In the case of games , People who still have jobs to make money , But the second group was mostly replaced by a new group , A new group that buys workers' jobs and eventually sells them to others , Pay group . let me put it another way , Most games and P2E The difference is that , You have changed from a player to a worker and speculator , People in the office hardly really want to play this game .

If P2E A really interesting game has been launched in the field , So you're just an ordinary game with workers and players . Except for one subtle point , There's no difference .

Anonymous assets on the chain with virtual game assets allow active secondary markets to operate outside the Game Developer Platform , But it can still be easily taxed by game developers . The general consensus among game developers is , The secondary market is bad for income , Because they are not easy to get a piece of every deal , And it will erode the primary market . Now? , With cryptocurrency , They can easily tax , Although the encroachment of the primary market cannot be solved . in my opinion , This is still a good thing , Because the best games in the past did have an active secondary market , Now there is at least a greater incentive for game developers to return to the good times before the anti secondary trend . Players get what they want , And developers get half what they want . therefore , Encryption and games may have some powerful synergies , but P2E This is not the current state of .

Meta universe

Just “ Meta universe ” In terms of the meaning of the word , We already have it , And it's a growing industry . If “ Meta universe ” The word does not just mean VR, Then we must define it accurately , Lest we start climbing “ The abstract ladder of the sky ” Exaggerate the value of ordinary . When people say AI when , They mean ML; When people say ML when , They mean statistical methods ; When people talk about statistical methods , They mean linear regression . Money is already inflating ; Let's not exaggerate . If “ Meta universe ” It means virtual community , We've been  Telegram  Chat 、Discord Community , It was even called  Facebook  Own it in your company . If “ Meta universe ” Only one trend is described , That is, people usually spend more and more time in the virtual world , And spend less and less time in real space , So it's happening , Japan's hikikomori( House Youth ) Is our future . When you print too much money , Half of people stop having sex , Become a closed basement resident , And the other half becomes a giant Zombie kiretsus The working class , Until they are inevitably exhausted to death .

For all that , From a practical point of view , When we talk about investing “ Meta universe  ” when , No matter what it actually means , This usually takes two forms : Invest in specific virtual land in the virtual world / assets . For the former , Encryption allows two innovations that were previously impossible .

First , As long as you have some counter prophecy mechanism , You can get your users through the equivalent of Web3 Method to obtain ownership of the proceeds .

secondly , You can allow your users to conduct business transactions with each other without relying on the centralized payment track . let me put it another way , You can log in to  Decentraland(MANA), Let your avatar enter a virtual art gallery , Find your favorite punk , Then click it to link directly to  OpenSea  The auction on . Click again , Your Metamask  Open your wallet , You can buy it from the gallery . After purchase , You can show it in the gallery or remove it to show it in your virtual house , Show... In two places .

Of course , cool . For all that , As an example ,VRChat You can only integrate this function , Even if their verse is centered . And VRChat( Virtual reality games ) comparison ,Decentraland Are there any unique advantages and disadvantages ? It's hard to say. , But maybe the next topic will be enlightening . And VRChat comparison ,Decentraland Are there any unique advantages and disadvantages ? It's hard to say. , But maybe the next topic will be enlightening . And VRChat comparison ,Decentraland Are there any unique advantages and disadvantages ? It's hard to say. , But maybe the next topic will be enlightening .

What happens when we convert land ownership to bearer notes ? What happens when we turn virtual land ownership into bearer notes ? This is indeed. Decentraland and Second Life The core difference between . It is virtual land and unforgeable 、 Land ownership that cannot be seized creates a degree of scarcity . Although there is still a problem , The value of land is related to the distance from the transportation center .

The value of virtual land also benefits from the flow of people around the area , Such as real space, land , But in virtual reality , People can transmit and fly . If you restrict users from transmitting or flying , Then your competitors will not impose such restrictions . Because the virtual world doesn't need the laws of Physics , I think the land can also be stacked vertically . So I can't see that the value of virtual land reaches the same ratio of urban and rural land value in real space , But some virtual lands may still be more valuable than others , It depends on how many eyeballs they can catch locally . Last , Is virtual land ownership in the end unattainable ? If there are any of them Decentraland There are some very vulgar or illegal things on the scene , Like some bloody or pornographic content , What should I do ?Decentraland Can you take it down ? Decentralized platforms should not .

Web3

And Valve The difference is , This time we actually count to 3. To avoid the concept / Words swell , Let's use Chris Dixon Yes Web3 The definition of . Read Web1.Web2 Yes. / Written .Web3 Yes. / Write / With the .

So basically ,FCoin Invented transaction cost mining , Later on DeFi As a profit, farming has been popularized , therefore Web3 It's per unit yield agriculture . To make fun of , Paradigm shift is not enough .Web3 It is a broad income tool similar to stock , Enforcement actions by securities regulators will be difficult . Maybe it's good , It may not be good , It depends on whether you are a regulator .

Imagine , If Uber( Or if you are Chris Dixon Well, that's right Lyft) Be able to distribute a small amount of... To passengers and drivers during each ride on their platform Uber/Lyft Stocks , No paperwork or middleman's expenses , Nor is there any cost that could cause trouble with regulators , In fact, it could have been very good . A good way to establish bilateral or multilateral markets , A good way to solve the egg problem , And a good way to get customers to become evangelists . well , Let's see what's going on . Aspiring entrepreneurs will start Web3 When placed on each publicity platform , Still need to be careful , It's like “ AI ” and “ Uber for X ” What happened to the trend .

Conclusion

So all in all , Everything is fine in the field of encryption . In the long run , As always, I remain optimistic about cryptocurrency space . In the short term , There is some work and liquidation to do . I know some people will call me : Midwives , But I don't comment on them :

DeFi

Original author :Kevin Zhou

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