A good play by Luna, UST, anchor and LFG -- understand ust disturbing the encryption market sentiment in the past two days

niuaniua 2022-05-14 04:04:39 阅读数:886


1、Terra USD abbreviation UST, Last week, it was the third largest stable currency in the world , It is also a rising star with the largest market value in algorithmic stability currency . In front of it is big brother USDT And the second brother USDC, Both are stable currencies under the chain , That is to say, they are all safe assets in real dollars ( For example, bank deposits 、 US Treasury bills 、 Commercial paper ) As collateral .

2、5 month 10 The date of ,UST The price began to break down , At one point it fell to 0.7 Below the dollar , Then pulled back 0.9 dollar . and 5 month 11 Japan , The selling pressure intensified again ,UST The price falls below 0.6 dollar , It is still struggling .5 month 10 At the congressional hearing on the evening of the th , Yellen also mentioned UST, She said “ A name is Terra USD The stable currency experienced a sharp decline and devaluation ... We need a suitable framework ( To monitor the stability currency )” And Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey Obviously better UST, Quickly point out what Yellen said UST It belongs to algorithmic stability currency , There is no collateral such as cash .

3、UST The stability mechanism of is a branch of algorithm stability , It's called “ Dual currency stability ”. Its stability comes from two Terra Mutual conversion and arbitrage transaction of blockchain tokens . among ,LUNA yes Terra The original token of the public chain , Be similar to ETH To ETH Public chain , Its price is unstable , It can rise sharply or fall .UST It is Terra The algorithm of public chain stabilizes currency , yes Terra Ecological “ Legal currency ”.UST The anchoring mechanism is as follows :

4、 When UST The price of rose to $1 At the top ,LUNA The holder of can put the in his hand at any time LUNA Press $1 Exchange rate into UST And sell at a higher price in the market . For example, when UST Rose to $1.1 when , You can choose to buy $100 Of LUNA, Exchange it for “ Face value ”$100 Of UST, Then press... In the market “ Market value ”$110 sell , Reap profit 10 dollar . So... In the market UST The supply will rise , Arbitrage drives UST Return to $1.
5、 When UST The price fell to $1 At the bottom ,UST The holder of can devalue the UST Press $1 The price cast back LUNA And sell it for a profit . For example, when UST Fell to $0.9, You can always use $90 Dollars to buy from the market 100 gold UST, And press $1 The exchange rate will UST Casting back $100 Of LUNA, Profit after sale $10. such , In the market UST The supply of has fallen (UST Casting back LUNA when ,UST Meeting “ disappear ”), Arbitrage drives UST Prices have rebounded 1 dollar .

6、 This stabilization algorithm is very simple , Everyone can see the risk of the death spiral . When UST The price in 1 Above the dollar , Because people keep buying LUNA To arbitrage , therefore LUNA Prices continue to rise , Funds continue to flow into ,UST Supply continues to rise , The whole ecosystem works perfectly —— Despite the smell of Ponzi . But once the situation reverses ,UST The price fell to 1 Below the dollar and unable to return , take UST Casting back LUNA And selling arbitrage will lead to LUNA The supply of ( Throwing pressure ) A sharp rise in , impact LUNA The price of .LUNA The lower the price , The destruction UST Generated LUNA The more , In the market LUNA The selling pressure is higher ,LUNA The price is lower . The falling price of native tokens will also make UST The holder of the lost right to Terra The confidence of the public chain , exacerbate UST Throwing pressure . The final result is likely to be LUNA and UST Both return to 0.

7、Terra One of the founders of Do Kwon It's a Korean guy , Graduated from Stanford Department of Computer Science . He knew that to stop the death spiral , There is only one way : Continue to attract funds to buy UST And lock UST The liquidity of . therefore ,Terra stay 2021 year 3 Month launched Anchor agreement , About... At super high 20% The annual interest rate of (APY) attract UST deposit . It is much like a new market country in order to avoid a sharp devaluation of its currency , Attract... By raising interest rates sharply “ foreign ” inflows . for example ,2 At the end of the month, after sanctions, the Russian Central Bank , Raise interest rates sharply to 20% To resist the devaluation of the ruble .

8、 High interest rates are obviously very effective in attracting funds , But the disadvantage is the high cost 、 It's hard to last .5 month 11 The morning of Anchor Our website shows , At present, it absorbs UST The total amount is about 75 Million pieces ( because UST It's broken 1 dollar , Therefore, the total market value is only about 50 Billion dollars ). The annualized interest rate of the deposit is 19%, The daily interest expense is :50 Billion *19%/360=263 ten thousand . namely Anchor The daily debt side needs to pay about 260 Ten thousand dollars to UST The holder of . This figure was as high as about last month 700 Thousands of dollars .

9、 Its debt side absorbs deposits with such high interest rates , The asset side must have higher income to ensure no loss . But I'm sorry ,Anchor Asset side revenue has been unhealthy ,Anchor The borrowing rate is only 20% about , User pass Anchor Interest on loans + The pledge income is far from covering the interest cost , Capital has always been a net outflow , Only by first consuming Anchor Reserve funds in the Treasury to meet the net outflow .4 Since the month ,Anchor Reserve assets have declined linearly , About net decrease per day 400 Thousands of dollars . If you put Anchor Imagine a bank , This bank is actually sacrificing shareholders' equity to pay high deposit interest .

10、 obviously , Reserve assets ( Shareholders' equity ) The day spent is likely to be LUNA/UST return 0 A day of . In order to give LUNA The lives , This year, 1 Established in LUNA The foundation (LFG) It has become a new life-saving straw . If you put Terra Public chain and LUNA Understood as the government , take Anchor Understood as a bank , So the founder controls LFG Namely Terra Ecological central bank , Hoping to ease the bank's (Anchor) Bankruptcy and local currency (UST) Devaluation pressure .

11、LFG Did two things . On the one hand, since its establishment, it has continued to buy BTC, With the help of BTC The position is UST Increase credit . This is similar to a country's central bank buying gold on a large scale to increase the credit of its own currency . But it should be noted that ,LFG Never promised to allow in extreme cases UST And BTC hook ( Even though Jump Launched relevant community governance proposals ), But even if you don't promise, just exchange , But because of the existence of just against expectations , It can still add more or less credit to the local currency . As report goes ,LFG At present, it holds about 8 over BTC, The total market value is about 30 Billion dollars .

12、LFG Another thing to do is to Anchor Provide loans and capital injections , In order to make sure 20% The annualized interest expense will not break , This is similar to the central bank providing temporary liquidity support to banks suffering from runs . yesterday LFG It has just been announced that we are going to Anchor Offer about 15 Billion dollar loan , In response to a run .

13、 By 5 month 11 On the afternoon of Sunday , Native token LUNA Has plummeted to $6.6, a 3 Fell a few days ago 90%.Terra Ecological lockdown ( Similar to the number of deposits absorbed in the whole financial system ) Also plummeted to insufficient 90 Billion , Compared with a few days ago 300 Billion has shrunk by about 70%.

14、 Many people think that UST The defense war cannot succeed . Because no matter Anchor still LFG, Whether it's a loan or BTC reserve , You can't avoid the same problem : They are all burned for customers , There's always a time to run out . once 20% Of APY Disappear and the user has not yet generated stickiness , Then I'm afraid the outcome of waiting for this algorithm to stabilize the ecology can only be zero .

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