Uncertain thinking 2022-05-14 01:39:50 阅读数:645
UST I won't say much about the situation before taking off the anchor , At present, there are many analysis articles , The essential problems are analyzed thoroughly .
It's also the first time I saw it fall on the first day 95%+ Token of , Can continue to fall the next day 99%, And in this case , The exchange is not off the shelf yet , The loan agreement did not suspend the loan .
From here, we can analyze a lot , Try to pass this event , Let yourself learn more about risk management 、 Arbitrage strategies and risk aversion actions .
The watershed of the whole event , Should be DK Speech . before this , We are mainly concerned about what measures can make UST Re anchoring .
and DK Speech , Make it clear that they don't have any external solutions . From the tweets we can see , He first said UST The principle of stability , Quoted a DEPEG Detailed description of ：
Then these two are the key points , He made it clear that he could only rely on DEPEG Mechanism , Keep burning UST, Additional issue LUNA, Let... Through arbitrage UST go back to 1. To increase this process , The community is also voting on a proposal to increase combustion efficiency , In order to speed up UST Arbitrage speed .
See these two messages , My first reaction was that the project was over , If it burns like this , according to LUNA At that time, the market value will basically return to zero soon .
The first opportunity is to short on the news side . The risk is that the exchange closes and withdraws , Kill bears .
DK After the speech in the afternoon ,LUNA On the exchange, the price will soon arrive 0.7 near . But then the exchange closed and charged ,LUNA The price was pulled to 7.
Since then, it has probably entered the U.S. trading time ,LUNA The price has entered the market game , Did not plunge again , Stable at 1 near .
5 month 11 Japan , Your main concern is LUNA and UST On the price of , The focus on the message side is mostly the restoration of anchoring measures , And the long and short fight in the exchange .
from LUNA In terms of additional issuance volume ,5 month 11 The volume of additional issuance on the day did not exceed the cognitive scope , The price and additional issuance volume can also be basically aligned .
If 5 month 11 After that, the exchange will directly take off the shelves for trading , Back 512 The big play will not be staged , There is not such a large pool on the chain that can accommodate this huge amount of additional issuance arbitrage .
The key point is 512 All day , The big house didn't close the deal , Let the whole arbitrage chain run completely .
And if you don't know the mechanism , It is inconceivable that there will be such a huge amount of additional issuance . The volume of transactions is so large , Because there is a huge information gap , Some people think it has fallen 99%, There is such a big ecological , You can copy the bottom and have a fight .
The huge information gap forms a huge trading volume , Give Way luna While issuing a large number of additional shares , The price did not fall as fast as the additional issuance volume .
LUNA The price of , There have been huge deviations in different markets , The main breakthrough is 2 A place to , One is the official exchange channel , The price of the Oracle machine is in accordance with 1 In dollars , The other is the exchange channel , There is huge trading volume to support the bottom .
The main arbitrage path here becomes ： The exchange buys UST-> mention terra station exchange LUNA -> Recharge and sell at the exchange USDT -> Then buy into UST
Among them , stay station There will be 4% About the discount . But relative UST and USDT The discount of , This space is still huge . If UST/USDT by 0.5,96% - 50% = 46% Arbitrage is close in turn 46% The profits of the . When UST To 0.7 when , Also have 26% profits .
This process also requires 2 Price protection , One is to buy UST when , One is to exchange LUNA when .
stay DK In the tweet of , There is a proposal to mention the community , increase UST Combustion efficiency , I looked at the status of this proposal , It's still in the vote . in other words , Even if it doesn't increase efficiency , The action of the market has fully played its role .
Actually , From a rational point of view . When DK Say let UST adopt DEPEG Mechanism recovery anchor timing , As long as you know something about stability , You must know that this is the declaration of death . This process is too fast .
and LUNA Didn't die immediately , It's been trading here for more than a day , I don't know what I think , Let a lot of people who don't know the situation fight inside .
From the perspective of arbitrage , When the market price does not reflect the actual situation of the project , There is room for arbitrage . You may need to understand the principle to be able to do it , Relevant operations will be carried out , Find the specific data , Do a good job in risk aversion , Finally, have some courage , Or it's already practiced muscle memory .
From the perspective of additional issuance volume and market price trend ,512 One day LUNA Stable additional issuance according to the upper limit of each block , The price also basically continues to decline , It continued to fall 99%.
513, The exchange is off the shelf LUNA and UST, This is the end of the play .
Actually from UST As can be seen from the price trend of , At the heart of this drama is the presence of this on the exchange 2 Currency transaction pairs , Because centralization has many opaque factors , Therefore, there is information difference .
512 Good morning! 9 spot ,UST The price reached... On the exchange 3d High point , After that, all the way down ,LUNA The price is also .
from 511 On the evening of 7 Point to 512 Good morning! 9 Point to this stage ,UST The price is from 0.35 It's back to 0.8. If you don't know the mechanism, friends , May think this is the market restoring confidence , In self-healing .
Through the combination of additional issuance data , This period of time LUNA Probably issued additional shares 3 times ,UST The price rise is actually bought by arbitragers .
and 512 Of 9 After the point , Enter East 8 District trading time , We found that the amount of additional issuance is so large , The price went down again . and UST There has been no big waterfall in the downward process , It is also a manifestation of arbitrage .
Everything still starts from DK That tweet starts , It's that 14 This article actually has one meaning , You go arbitrage . Normally , The founder said so , The probability goes straight to the end . The arbitrage mechanism can take effect , It needs to be supported by an opponent's plate . If it is a project on the chain , The disposable pool is dry . And with the existence of the exchange , Let this feast last more than a day .
It's a little loose , In a brief summary ：
• DK Hair push , Declare lying flat
• Market feedback price from 3.5-0.7
• The exchange closes and withdraws , Price to 7
• 511 On the evening of -512 Good morning! 9, Market price game , No big fluctuations
• During this time period LUNA Additional issue 3 About times , Arbitrageurs act secretly
• 512 Good morning! 9,UST Back to 0.8, The arbitrage effect is obvious
• 512 Good morning! 9 after , In the east 8 District time , Panic again after finding a large number of additional shares
• Since then, it is estimated that it is national arbitrage , There are also a lot of rushing , When the opponent set
• 513 The exchange is off the shelf LUNA, The play is over
• UST Price 0.1
• LUNA Supply trillion +
Knowledge and information that need to be understood ：
• UST The mechanism of
• UST and LUNA The relationship between
• Casting and burning UST Operation method
• Operation method of hedging
• The price difference between exchanges and chains
• LUNA Additional data
• The difference between the price of the oracle and the actual price
• The extent to which the market reflects the current actual situation
Possible risks ：
• The exchange is closed and charged
• The policy was blown up
• Half off the shelf
• Various unknown centralization risks
All of the above is fictitious , Let's go .
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