Daorayaki | art or science? On token pricing in Web3 economy

DAOrayaki_ 2022-04-06 13:21:11 阅读数:662

daorayaki art science token pricing

Original author :  Living Opera

contributor :Shaun

Reviewer :DAOctor

original text :   Pricing Tokens in a Web3 Economy

according to Statista The data of , There are currently more than 10,000 Kinds of tokens are in circulation , But most of them may not be worth money . Some of these tokens are blatant scams , Many other tokens are vague , They may be interesting or have great development prospects , But I have to say , This is a confusing sight .

How do you decide which choices are right , How to determine whether all ongoing actions are wise decisions ? Although many people have realized the danger signal behind the scam , But there are few articles on the actual pricing of tokens . therefore DAOrayaki Community members Shaun compile Living Opera Of 《Web3 Token pricing in the economy 》 One article , discuss web3 Token pricing in the economy . Like most other activities , Pricing tokens is more like an art , Not a science .

Explain the reasons for the increase in token prices

Let's start with the basics : Risk and reward .

Cryptocurrency is much more volatile than standard securities in the stock market . for example ,Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski stay 2020 In, he wrote a pioneering research paper , It is found that the daily rate of return of cryptocurrency is 0.46%, The daily return on stocks is 0.05%. Again , The monthly rate of return of cryptocurrency is 20.44%, The monthly return on stocks is 0.94%. These are obvious differences , Not to mention the difference between skewness and kurtosis .

Like this shocking table , Even if it's just a simple report listing the distribution of different dimensions , It conveys a lot of information about the volatility of tokens .

The problem is , What drives all these changes ?

There are two most frequently cited factors :

  • Network utilization ( namely , How many users are there on the network )

  • The cost of executing the transaction ( namely , How expensive is the consensus mechanism )

Which of these factors is more important ? Interestingly ,Liu and Tsyvinsky(2020) Find out , A measure of production costs , Such as electricity price or calculation capacity , Not related to the rate of return ." Overall speaking , There is limited evidence that computational factors are an important driver of token returns ". They also found that , Macroeconomic and other currency fluctuations are not the substantive factors leading to currency price growth .

however , They found that , The network effect is very important . The more users on a platform , The better the performance of the currency price . stay Web2 field , It's easy to draw a similar conclusion , For example, if you are Facebook The only user on , Then it's of no value to you , Because you can't communicate with others .

however , about Web3 Come on , It's not so clear , It's not necessarily true .

Yukun and Tsyvinski By quantifying the number of users 、 After analyzing the network effect by the number of active wallets , They found that these variables were highly predictive of token price growth . Of course , This conclusion is not surprising , Tokens with more users may indeed perform better .

in fact ,Web3 One of the great advantages of the times is , Cross chain operability is easier . Because whether explicit or implicit data based on consensus mechanism , Usually owned by individuals , This creates a driving force for the formation of cross chain bridges .

Yukun and Tsyvinski (2020) It also discusses the role of investors' attention to market events , It's also important to find it . for example , They found that when investors are interested in “ The currency hackers ” Search attention increases by one standard deviation , It will lead to an overall decline in the return rate of the cryptocurrency market next week 2%.

( Investor sentiment is important . They use the ratio of positive stories to negative stories to represent the positive and negative relationship of token price growth ).

However , When you try to gain insight into the actual fundamentals behind tokens , It's really difficult . No tokens " Book value ", Update a standard physical asset . The following is from Yukun and Tsyvinski Five examples of .

  • In the past 100 Weekly cumulative token market return

  • Users are better than the market

  • ( wallet ) Address market ratio

  • Trading market value ratio

  • Payment market ratio

Everyone is trying to capture the value of cryptocurrency assets over a long period of time " Book value ", And take the current market value as the yardstick .

But here's the interesting thing , They found that these measures could not predict the growth of tokens ." in general , The relationship between future token returns and the ratio of current token fundamentals to value is very weak ". This is the main evidence that token fundamentals are not important . however , Fundamentals are always important , At least in the end , Because the laws of physics cannot be avoided , These results more fully show that , We need to do more work on how to think about the fundamentals of tokens , At present, the analysis of tokens in our communities is still mainly in " Art form ", instead of " Scientific practice ".

What's the difference between tokens and equity

Although tokens have many similarities with equity , But they also have some important differences , For example, the practical value they provide on the blockchain is completely different . This consensus mechanism based on the use of blockchain adds an additional security layer .

In traditional startups , Founders and venture capitalists own equity . This means that decision-making is quite centralized . Also means that , Few employees and participants feel that they are real shareholders .

stay Web3 In the economy , The concept of shareholders has become broader . All of a sudden , Anyone who owns tokens can be a shareholder of the basic platform . in other words , When there's a deal , Token holders can get a piece of the whole deal . Besides , If the token is given the ability to govern , Then the token holder can vote on the development of the agreement , This means that they can even affect the charging structure .

In addition to the larger scale dissemination of governance capacity , Tokens also provide unlimited ways to create utility for users . for example , stay Living Opera in , People are building around art NFTs, Allow the holder to use NFT To visit the live concert . Equity itself only provides a cash entrance , But practical tokens provide experience and cash .

Just as equity can be diluted , Tokens can also be diluted . It is important to see how a platform determines the different economic policies adopted for its token supply , More inflation or more deflation , And this decision should be influenced by the following factors .

  • What is the market for potential users ?

  • How the composition of new users changes ?

  • What are the existing users like ?

Heuristic algorithm for token pricing

It may be hard to think that there is an exact price for tokens , But to make that idea a reality , We can create an interim valuation by asking questions , As a guiding indicator .

  1. What is the price of each token purchased on the platform today ?

  2. How much the community is expected to grow , At these different stages of growth , What is the charging structure ?

  3. What's the discount rate , What are the comparable investment targets ?

These are obviously not an exhaustive set of questions , But they are exploratory questions , You can combine them with the broader context of the whole article . Because there is no comprehensive evidence to explain the dispersion of token price growth , So the best thing we can do now is to ask a smart question , As a guiding indicator .

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