Interstellar horizon ipfsnews 2022-04-06 12:37:31 阅读数:832
Edit Preface ：VanEck Previously launched The currency futures ETF, But was rejected bitcoin spot ETF. In this paper, the imagination of bitcoin becoming a reserve currency is very exaggerated ,“ Use the same as gold M0 value , The implied price of bitcoin is about 130 Thousands of dollars . Use global M2 The implied price of bitcoin is 480 Thousands of dollars ”. You can read its basic logic here . Similar arguments can be referred to ：Arthur Hayes Long article ： Sanction 、 Gold and bitcoin
Sanctions against Russia may have changed the reserve currency system . From this monetary perspective , We are trying to quantify the impact on gold and bitcoin as potential reserve assets .
The currency has changed . Sanctions against the Russian central bank have eliminated its dollar 、 Euro and yen reserves . This should reduce the demand for hard currency as a reserve asset , At the same time, increase the demand for currencies that can play the original functions of these former reserve currencies . We believe the central bank will take action , Private individuals will also take action . To put the current event in context , Our emerging market bond investment team is trying to quantify the emergence of a new gold or bitcoin backed monetary system . The end result is , The upside of gold and bitcoin may be huge . To be specific , The framework estimates that the price of gold is about... Per ounce 31,000 dollar , The potential bitcoin price is about 130 Thousands of dollars . If the greater pressure on the financial and monetary system is adjusted , Will result in higher prices .
We have established a simple framework to evaluate the value of gold and bitcoin . For gold , We will the global money supply （M0 and M2） Divided by global gold reserves . Monetary liabilities divided by reserve assets . We use troy ounces to represent the current reserves , We use the current exchange rate to convert monetary base liabilities into US dollars . We use base money because econometrics is good （ Worldwide ）, It's understandable , It's just currency and demand deposits in your pocket .
except “ The global ” In addition to the price of gold , We also know the gold holdings of central banks , And can calculate the gold price of each country . This may be useful to measure the potential pressure on national monetary and financial systems . for example , Under the strict gold standard , A national central bank's balance sheet should produce about an ounce 1900 Dollar gold . This will show that , The potential pressure from their monetary system is not obvious （ Although there are obviously many other important factors . Besides , We do not recommend adopting the gold standard , We continue to take a negative view of the prices of all Russian assets ）. We are right. M2 Run the same operation , Just to enhance the framework （ I'll talk about it in detail later M2 and M3）.
For bitcoin , We used the same framework . We calculated BTC Of “ The global ” Price , namely M0 and M2 Divide by quantity . We only calculate BTC The price of , Not the price of all cryptocurrencies , Because the number of bitcoins is limited （2100 ten thousand ）, and “ Cryptocurrency ” The potential number of is unlimited . This is the denominator of bitcoin calculation , Just as gold was the denominator in the previous calculation .
Extremes of gold and bitcoin and real price targets
In the extreme case where gold or bitcoin becomes a reserve asset , Obviously, the resulting “ Price ” Lower expectations , They are just a starting point . Investors should at least determine the subjective possibility of the result . perhaps , They should choose a degree for the result ： Gold or bitcoin will be the only reserve asset , Or share this position with other assets ？
We believe that , Most investors will and should use the expectation framework to achieve these numbers . for example , One who sees gold has 10% Investors who have a chance to become reserve assets may say , our “ Extreme scenarios ” Price 31000 dollar / Ounces represent 3100 dollar / The actual price target for ounces . They might think , Relative to the current price , This is an attractive upside space , Maybe not .
Our point is , We may never happen , Or extreme situations that may not happen completely begin . However , They are a way to start the quantification process , Investors should adjust according to their own assumptions .
Understand the new monetary paradigm
Some famous commentators said , Due to sanctions against the Russian Central Bank , The currency has changed . But so far , The output is prose , Our goal is a framework and some specific figures .
The Russian central bank may change its reserve portfolio to some extent , To the detriment of the dollar, the euro and the yen , And strengthen other currencies . The United States 、 The sanctions imposed by the eurozone and Japan on the Russian central bank are basically “ disappear ” The Russian dollar 、 Euro and yen reserves . therefore , Some central banks and the private sector will diversify their foreign exchange reserves .
Many of the new reserves will be based only on existing “ emerging market ” National currency , Such as RMB . Relative to the central bank , The private individual role is now the more important price maker in the market . therefore , Gold and cryptocurrency are our primary concerns .
Central banks and individuals may look at... In a new paradigm “ currency ”, We are trying to figure out its exact meaning . let me put it another way , We think it is necessary for market participants to answer such a question ： If China buys 3 What happens to trillions of dollars of gold ？ If people lose faith in fiat money , Switch to other currencies , What will happen ？
For gold , Our main conclusion is ：
In global currency （M0） Divided by global gold reserves, the implied value of gold “ The global ” Price , For the countries with the most gold holdings , Per ounce 3.1 Thousands of dollars （ Average ） and 2.1 Thousands of dollars （ Median ）.
In global currency （M2） Divided by global gold reserves “ The global ” The price of gold is much higher , About per ounce 10.5 Thousands of dollars （ Part of the reason is that many central banks have little or no gold reserves ）.
The greater the possibility of a financial crisis ,M2 The more important the price is .
M3 It is now implicitly guaranteed by the Federal Reserve （ In our view , This is one of the most important effects of the global financial crisis ）, This indicates greater upside space . If the Fed is forced to guarantee the world more openly in future crises M3, Then the gold price will be more optimistic . But as we all know , The Federal Reserve and other institutions stopped counting this figure before and after the global financial crisis , The price is obviously much higher .
On the basis of various countries , Japan's data exceeded the record . It has a lot of money , Only a little gold .
The UK is another developed market with very low gold reserves relative to currency liabilities .
Relative to monetary liabilities , China's gold reserves also seem to be low .
The results of gold prices in various countries may indicate , Countries with high gold prices may face pressure of currency devaluation .
In some developed market countries , There is a lot of pressure to devalue , More than emerging market countries . Developed market countries “ print ” Own reserve currency , therefore ,“ reserve ” It's a different concept for developed markets , Emerging markets must strive to generate external account surpluses , To increase reserves .
Russia is really interesting . Relative to money （ Under the current exchange rate and gold price ）, It has almost enough gold to build a currency board .1999 year , stay 1998 After the crisis in , When Russia's foreign exchange reserves （ in the past , Russia's foreign exchange reserves are US dollars ） When equal to the base currency , The opportunity to buy appears .
Of course , We need to remind investors , According to their understanding of this “ extreme ” Assumptions about the likelihood of a scenario happening , Or the assumption of the proportion of gold realized in any new reserve state , Down this “ extreme ” Price expectation under scenario .
For those who pay attention to the calculation of gold prices in various countries , There is a big difference in prices . The following evidence should be self-evident .
Cryptocurrencies all benefit from this situation , And compete with gold . Maybe cryptocurrency is the new gold , And will benefit from this demand for new hard money . Maybe not. , Maybe both . Our current view is , For the central bank , Gold is the easiest thing to consider and buy , At this special moment , The central bank is the key role in our hearts . But private actors are more agile , Respond to the same underlying motivation .
We did the same calculation for cryptocurrency . Because the potential number of cryptocurrencies is unlimited , We focus on bitcoin , It has 2100 Restrictions on the supply of 10000 bitcoins . In this regard , It is closer to gold than other cryptocurrencies . that , The global M0 and M2 Divided by the number of bitcoins ？
- Use the same as gold M0 value , The implied price of bitcoin is about 130 Thousands of dollars .
- Use global M2 The implied price of bitcoin is 480 Thousands of dollars .
- The upside of cryptocurrency seems to be much higher than that of gold （ about 33 times ）, Although gold is the central bank's more direct first choice . However , Individual participants may act faster .
- Like gold , We need to remind investors , According to their understanding of “ extreme ” The assumption of the probability of occurrence , Or the assumption that the bitcoin will be realized in any new reserve state , Down regulation “ extreme ” Price expectation in case .
The starting point framework for the valuation of gold and bitcoin
We cannot overemphasize , This is a framework that helps us begin to concretize . There are many problems with these implied prices j Come down . The most obvious thing is to include a probabilistic scheme .
There are other assets that may perform the functions of gold or bitcoin , As a reserve asset . Physical assets such as real estate are another obvious alternative to gold or bitcoin , Many people define it as limited supply . Maybe even an unlimited supply of assets , Like stocks , It can also play a function similar to money . Perhaps the same is true for emerging market currencies （ More on ）.
We just provide a starting point for any quantitative process . The spirit of our framework is to start a quantitative process , Let you refine your answers , Instead of producing " answer ".
Emerging market currencies / Bonds may benefit
Emerging market currencies （EMFX） And a potential beneficiary . However , The above framework is not suitable for EMFX, So we won't include them in this discussion .
First , Unlike gold or bitcoin , Emerging market currencies are subject to potentially unlimited supply . Besides , We have a formal investment process for local currency bonds in emerging markets . and , This process does not distinguish between money and interest rates . Logically speaking , Separating money from interest rates is double counting inflation （ Unless you're looking at non economic factors , Such as technical factors ）. Relative to the fundamentals , We are attracted by high real interest rates . period . This is the core of our formal analysis process . We have the second step of analysis , To include non systemic risks . for example , We don't have Russia at all , Because although relative to its fundamentals , Real interest rates are attractive , But we think the risk of sanctions is too high , The impact is too great . in any case , We think EMFX Is a potential major beneficiary , But we didn't discuss it here , Because this framework is not suitable for unlimited supply of assets .
Quantify the impact on gold and bitcoin prices
up to now , The world has not imposed sanctions on major economic and financial participants such as Russia . About the future of money “ The story ” Very interesting , But if someone thinks this may be a new paradigm , Then it is necessary to try to quantify . This is the purpose of our work , Make a vague and complex problem as specific as possible . The key impact of this major change on asset prices is the sharp rise in gold and bitcoin .
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