From the perspective of network value, it will take you to re-examine the primary market valuation

Babbitt 2022-04-06 02:17:46 阅读数:148

perspective network value re-examine examine

The original title : Research Report | L d : From chain to network —— Composability , Nodes and value networks

source | Timestamp capital

In the field of traditional blockchain primary market valuation , Basically, comparative valuation is adopted . for example Uniswap(3 month 7 Japan ) The total market value of 83 Billion , So in a new public chain Ecology , Allied AMM Of DEX The project may also be valued 8 Ten million ( one percent ), Even hundreds of millions .

Comparative valuation has long been criticized , Because the comparative valuation is very affected by the market . The project parties hope to catch up with the bull market when financing , Projects can therefore be overestimated .VC Fang is more inclined to pick up the leak in the bear market . But anyway , From the first round of financing to the final launch of the project , One to two years , Cattle bear transformation , The risk is magnified in the valuation process due to concentration .

However, comparative valuation is still one of the few choices in frustration . First , Blockchain projects generally lack cash flow in the cash flow discount model . Although many projects are trying to create stable future cash flow , however , Not many existing projects can guarantee this so-called cash flow . secondly , Many codes in the blockchain industry are open source , Events on the same track ( such as AMM) The similarity can be really high , Even some projects are directly forked from other projects .

With the cyclical ups and downs of the market , The comparative valuation method is dissatisfied on this side , On the one hand, it provides basic investment methodology for investors of all sizes in the market .

This study starts from Metcalfe's law and barabrasi's law of success , Provide a new social network value model for the market . The core idea is to put a single project ( Track ) The valuation of is evaluated in the value network in which it is located , So as to upgrade the valuation of blockchain from isolated island to network .

The following part of the study will be carried out from three aspects : The first part will deduce the theoretical framework of the value network model ; The second part focuses on combing the important constituent nodes in the existing blockchain network ; The third part will provide empirical research for quantitative verification .


One 、 Theoretical part


Research on primary market investment , In the final analysis, there is only one core : The valuation .

The old comparative valuation method used the experimental method of controlling variables + Classified ( branch ) Families, ( cure ) Academic view . And although there may be other valuation methods in the market , However, there is no new valuation method that can break through the limitations of the old method at the same time , And it can take the old method as a simplified approximation of the new method . And a good new theory should be like relativity to Newtonian mechanics : Newton's theory of relativity can't explain ( High speed ) The phenomenon , At the same time, Newtonian mechanics is also the theory of relativity in ( low speed ) Approximate solution under specific conditions .

The value network model proposed in this study attempts to provide such a new method , Reexamine the primary market valuation of blockchain with a higher dimension , At the same time, the comparative valuation method is included as a simplified way .

Old law : Compare valuation and panorama

To be specific , Comparative valuation model is commonly used in primary market :1) Find one. ( Or a group ) Compare with similar projects in the market ;2) Discount according to the development stage ;3) Supplemented by other factors ;4) Valuation of the project .

In this way , There are a large number of research reports that study the subdivided fields one by one . Industry research similar to traditional finance ,Defi,NFT, Public chain …… From the first few categories, a variety of subdivision tracks have been gradually derived .

in the course of time , As one of the tracks gets richer , Subdivision further differentiates . such as ,Defi And gradually subdivided into DEX(AMM perhaps Order book),Lending To loan ,Vaults(Yearn Created a machine gun pool ), Perpetual futures contracts ( Such as Perpetual), Perpetual options ( Such as Opyn)……

Again NFT There are also Uni V3, Trading market ( representative Opensea), Chain tour assets , Head portrait ( Originator Cryptopunk)……

Public chain except BTC,ETH outside , There are many more Pos chain (BNB,Sol,Avax,Dot……). Even if it is BTC and ETH They have their own separation Layer 2, Plus cross chain agreements , And a series of subdivided and subdivided fields brought by data storage operation index .

Last , It seems that such a panorama can always be made .


 Value network 2021 Ecological profile of blockchain industry in

limited

With 2021 Year as an example ,2-3 Month by month 6800 Million dollar digital painting detonated NFT Track ,3-5 Of the month L2 Become a hot spot ,6-8 month Axie Chain swimming potential ,9-10 month AltL1 Skyrocketing ,11 Month after month Constitution Dao and ENS The airdrop tide ends .

It seems easy to draw a conclusion : This is the rotation of plates , Hot spots disappear here and grow there , But what is the basis of plate rotation is difficult to say . There are people in every plate , And everyone who hits 100 times the coin feels that he has some degree of foresight .

But statistics tell us , It's hard to say whether it's because the survivors are wrong .

The market is a very complex system , So this study can't really predict what the plate will be next . But this study tries to find a higher perspective than relative valuation to look at the future ecological changes .

A blockchain world viewed from the perspective of complex systems .


The starting point of the new law : Two sources of thought

Source 1 :“ The law of success ”

“First Law — Performance drives success, but when performance can't be measured, networks drive success.”——The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success, Albert-laszlo Barabasi, 2019

“ Performance drives success , But when performance cannot be measured , Social networks drive success .”—— Barabbas

In the valuation of traditional finance , Performance is driven by profit ( interest ) Decisive . Of all financial assets , The performance of bonds is almost entirely determined by interest rates , So bond traders almost only need to look at interest rates ( Future interest rates ) Changes in price can determine the price . by comparison , The performance of stocks is related to the profitability of enterprises , Therefore, the valuation of stock price adopts a series of indicators on the financial statements to evaluate the operation of the enterprise .

Therefore , The valuation of stocks is much more complex than bonds , The accuracy is also much lower .

In the blockchain industry , It's even hard for projects to give an enterprise style “ Financial statements ”. The only few data can only be the number of transactions on the chain , Number of currency holding addresses ,TVL, Number of people in the community , Some items may be counted as income ( Thanks to TokenTerminal).

Not to mention in the primary market of blockchain industry , Performance is harder to measure .

So apply “ The law of success ”, Since the success of the project cannot be measured by performance , Then success is driven by the network . And for projects ( Track ) Valuation of , It can also be transformed into the valuation of the network where the project is located .

Examples and composability

take Cosmos ecology As a microcosm of the whole blockchain world . Because of the composability of blockchain , In fact, projects are generally connected and interact with each other . All projects together form an ecological network , A chaotic network at first glance .

 Value network

Cosmos Ecological map


Although widely connected ( Just like statistics, any two people in the world only need 7 Personal connection ), But the status of each project in the network is also different . Like in the picture below Cosmos The chain is in a relatively central position in the whole Ecology , Closely linked to many other projects . So for Cosmos Valuation of the chain , In fact, it can also be transformed into Cosmos Valuation of value network centered on .


 Value network Cosmos Ecological map II

The valuation of the network is Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian (1999) It has been discussed in , That is, the famous Metcalfe's law .

Source 2 :“ Metcalfe's law ”

The value of a network is directly proportional to the square of the number of nodes in the network , In terms of formula, it is (Shapiro & Varian, 1999):


 Value network

The mathematical proof of Metcalf's law is in Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian (1999) It has been demonstrated that , But the network nodes in the law are abstracted into homogeneous . In the value network of valuation , The differences between nodes should not be ignored . This heterogeneity has two levels : The value of the node itself and the tightness of the connection between the node and the central project .

Therefore, in the formula of Metcalf's law N Do a split refinement , With the following new formula :


 Value network


VN Represents the value of a surrounding node ,aN Indicates how closely this node is connected with the central project ,N Then it indicates the number of connected nodes around .

( notes : Here, the node of the value network is not the verification node in the usual blockchain network )


As can be seen from the formula , The network value of the project is determined by VN、aN and N decision . At the same time, because each project can find its own value network , So the value network of each project is unique .

in short , The value of a project depends on whether its own value is needed by many other people or projects (N Not big enough ); Whether the person or project that needs it is successful ( Is there any VN It's big ); And whether this need is strong and irreplaceable (aN Size ).


Example

As shown in the left half of the figure below ,Cosmos chain ( and $Atom Tokens, ) The value of can be considered to come from all the project nodes connected to it , These nodes make up Cosmos The value network of the chain . The connection between them is made by IBC The communication protocol remains unchanged , Also from other projects to $ATOM The pledge is guaranteed by airdrop . undoubtedly , The power of other projects ( Or the high value of its currency ) In probability, it will lead to Cosmos The power of the chain ($ATOM The high value of the currency ). At the same time, the closer the connection , The deeper the mutual influence between the two sides , The deeper the two-way value binding .

Right again Cosmos The value network of two projects in Ecology (Cosmos Chain and Cornos chain ) Compare . The number of nodes connected by the former is significantly more than that of the latter , And can link to Terra,Osmosis Such a powerful node , At the same time, we can judge that this link is still relatively close at present . therefore , Value aspect ,Cosmos Far chain super Cornos chain . In this sense , Actually, it's also about ,Cosmos The chain “ ecology ” Much better than Cornos chain .

Of course Cornos The chain is not worthless . Although it is not connected with many nodes, only 4 individual , however Cosmos chain ,Terra chain ,Juno Chain and Crypto.org The value of the chain is not small . Besides, this connection is not loose . Value is only a fair word , There are fewer nodes than those connected , The strength of the associated nodes is not enough , Projects that are still loosely connected ,Cornos It's still valuable .


 Value network

Cosmos Local comparison of different ecosystems


New law : Value network valuation methodology

The same project will be in different value networks in different dimensions . For example, in the blockchain ecological network , It is in the value network composed of various projects . From the perspective of investors , The project exists in the value network of the portfolio . At the same time, there are user habits Dapp List network , In the interactive network of partners …… Strictly speaking , It is the interweaving of all networks that make up the total social value network of the project . If it's a perfect valuation , This general social value network should be considered .

But as a model , There is an inevitable need to simplify reality .

1) Determine the boundary of the network

But for decision-making , There need not and should not be too many dimensions and variables . Kahneman is in 2021 A new book in 《 noise : A flaw in human judgment 》 Suggestions in , The variables for decision-making should not exceed 5 individual . Although the variables of the model do not necessarily need to comply with 5 The limit of one , But statistically , Too many variables can easily lead to the autocorrelation of internal factors in the model , Weaken the explanatory power of the model .

In that case , How to select the value network node of the project ( Decision point ) Investors can show their magic . But to be sure , Value network boundaries ( Decision point ) Your choice will determine the final valuation .

2) Evaluate the value of each value network node and its close connection with the project

Valuations are never accurate . But we still need to pay attention to every value network node ( Decision point ) Do weighting . The weighted coefficient needs to comprehensively consider the node value and tightness .

3) Assess the future resilience of the network

Although the main task in valuation is to determine the current value of the project . But in this rapidly changing industry , Need to provide redundancy for premium and discount .

4) Add up all the values ( And potential changes )

Sum up the values of all important decision points to get the final valuation .


Old law and new law

In terms of the decision-making process , The network model is no different from other methods , But the dimensions and perspectives will be richer .

The comparative valuation method actually simplifies the value network of the valuation target and the value network of the reference project . The value network model allows each project to have its own niche .

Perspective and projection

Imagine if Cosmos One project in ecology is a star in the universe : It will gravitationally connect with other stars around it , Form a small galaxy ; Zoom out , This small galaxy will form a larger galaxy with other small galaxies ; Further away , Large galaxies form a small corner of the universe .

alike , Multiple projects are interconnected to form Cosmos The ecology of the public chain .Cosmos Public chain ecology and BTC、ETH Wait for the public chain ecology to form the whole public chain track , Finally, the public chain track forms the blockchain industry with several tracks .


 Value network

The perspective gradually widens Cosmos Ecological diagram


For the universe , Light will this three-dimensional 3 The three-dimensional universe is projected on the of the telescope 2 On the mirror . In the blockchain industry , The panorama table projects a high-dimensional ecological network . So behind every flat panorama , In fact, it is a three-dimensional value network .


 Value network

figure , from 3D To 2D,Cosmos Ecological map & Blockchain overview


Unstable complex systems

Like all other complex systems , This mutually valued value network is doomed to instability, which is the norm .

That's why there are various projects ( Track ) The rebirth and disappearance of , In many cases, this instability is simply interpreted as plate rotation .

Freshmen can be roughly divided into two types .

There are completely new creations : Many projects that are currently classified as infrastructure , It's hard to say it won't be a new track ( For example ETH Denver 2022 of use AI Audit project contract Deus Ex Securitas), Or try to solve the old problem with a new blockchain ( For example, some chain games try to play under the chain + Asset chain up mode ).

Freshmen may also be the stripping of old functions . A typical example is L2,ETH It is an integration of these functions of asset contract transaction , however L2 Plus the side chain may ETH Some functions of the main chain are stripped out , Focus only on core functions .

The opposite of rebirth is disappearance .

alike , There are also abandoned solutions ( For example, some early L2 programme , Useless air money , Projects that are no longer being developed ), There is also the combination and integration of old functions ( For example, some Defi Aggregator project ).


Two 、 Comb part ( The important track of blockchain at present )


The following research in this part will give a list of the main track projects we combed from the perspective of value network projection .

1. Public chain Pub Chain

The public chain is the core of the whole blockchain , At the same time, the public chain has also formed their own ecological value network centers . But like many definitions of this industry , The rapidly growing connotation makes the definition itself more and more vague . For the purpose of precise expression , For the public chain, there are the following 4 There are two subdivision types .

BTC

BTC Represents the tradition of blockchain . The value of blockchain is still collected with the minimalist design , Occupy the whole market about 40% Share , Become a window for the outside world to understand the blockchain . Bitcoin has a few titles . About BTC Right and wrong are also lengthy . It's just BTC It's not what it used to be BTC 了 , With L2 The lightning network , With Stacks Smart contract side chain represented by ,BTC Also gradually have their own ecological network .( See previous research 《 A new perspective of bitcoin Ecology : From cornerstone to bridge 》,https://www.defidaonews.com/article/6716230)

ETH

ETH It's the present of blockchain . As the largest contract development community , The number of projects developed on it far exceeds that of other public chains .L2 Capacity expansion schemes are also emerging one after another . even to the extent that EVM Compatibility has become a necessity for many other new public chains . This year, we hope to see Ethereum from Pow to turn to Pos.Defi,NFT, Chain Tour ,L2, In recent years, almost all major events of blockchain are related to ETH relevant . Even then “ Ethereum killers ” They have also expressed that they should cooperate with... In the future Multi Chain ecology ETH Coexist well . Love or hate , It's turning POS After that ETH Our ecological network will remain the focus of the market for some time to come .

Polka & Cosmos

Polka Ecology and Cosmos Ecology is like two sides of Multi Chain Alliance . Using the analogy of political system ,Polka Like a federal , There is a strong power, but other projects are welcome to join the organization in a parallel chain .Cosmos Like a Confederacy , Each member has a relatively independent and independent status , With IBC Communication protocols are interconnected , Together form ecology .

Alt L1

These are all in 2021 In the first half of ETH gas The time when the fee is the highest is called “ The etheric fang ” killer , At high speed and low price Pos Tags attract users . But in 2021 year ETH After a few forks ,gas Has greatly improved , Besides, 2022 It may be upgraded to POS Of ETH 2.0. But even so , Multi Chain ecology will still become the mainstream in the future , Because of the head Alt L1 The project has formed its own ecological network .

Head project :BNB, SOL, AVAX, Near, Fantom


2. L2: Lightning network

L2 At present only BTC and ETH There are application scenarios , So now L2 The value of depends largely on BTC and ETH The future value and positioning of .

at present BTC Of L2 Lightning network has undertaken most of the payment and transfer functions , And the future bridging BTC Ecological and other ecological tasks may be completed by the participation of lightning network .

ETH Of L2 The solutions are very diverse . Fragmentation ,“ pack ”roll-up, Proof of zero knowledge , This is the frontier of blockchain technology progress , Many solutions may not be adopted directly , But for example, zero knowledge proof zk-rollup But it can be used in other fields such as privacy protection . about ETH L2 Our concern is to study the underlying logic and technology trend of blockchain , It can be said to be infrastructure construction in the real sense .

Head project :Lightning Lightning network ,Optimism,Arbitrum,Polygon...


3. identity ( wallet , domain name ,KYC, privacy )

There are many segments in the identity track , But the essence is to provide entrance services for the public chain . At the same time, identity corresponds to “ people ”, The number and participation of users determine the value of identity applications . For example, the largest wallet application Metamask, according to Token Terminal data display , monthly (3 month 15 Daily data ) The transaction fee income is about 1000 Thousands of dollars , It's already amazing , And it is one of the few projects with considerable cash flow .

Start with the private key and mnemonics , The first batch of identity applications are wallets brought by each public chain official . Then gradually developed a general wallet supporting multiple chains . Now the wallet itself begins to integrate encrypted asset management , In particular, derivative pledge 、 Trade and NFT The function of display . For wallets , And every evolution marks a new value network .

Public key and domain name begin to bind , Each public chain also has its own official or semi official domain name application .

In addition, the privacy project also tries to cut into the public chain and identity track . meanwhile , Regulation may also gradually require public keys to be bound to real identities . There are not many leading head projects in these two fields , But they may be the birthplace of new value networks .

Head :Metamask,ENS


4. Storage :

Storage tracks have been around for a long time ,Filecoin As early as 2017 year 12 There is a token on the month . But in 2020 year NFT Before the outbreak , The storage track has not improved . After all, early bitcoin and other tokens paid attention to the whole node of customer operation , Simple transactions don't generate much data . After Ethereum developed the smart contract , The amount of data has indeed reached a new level , But still not to the point of large-scale demand storage . until 2020 Years and NFT The outbreak of . Together with Filecoin Become a hot spot in the market . The storage track completes the function of cloud storage in a decentralized way . As the blockchain world evolves into the meta universe , The demand for storage is almost bound to grow .

The storage network is relatively simple , It is the blockchain ecosystem composed of projects . The link is the storage requirements of data .

Head project :Filecoin,Arweave


5. Predicting machine Oracle

In theory, , The Oracle can link all information . But because of the Oracle itself “ Prophesy ” Mechanism , Only the most valuable information will be needed first , For example, the market price of each currency .

It is worth mentioning that , The prophecy machine was originally just to meet the needs of Ethereum Defi Generated by the quotation demand of the project . Value also depends on Ethereum Defi Prosperity . however Chainlink At present, it is no longer limited to EVM Provide quotation for compatible system , At present, the project is trying to be compatible with more ecological systems, such as Solana.Chainlink The total market value of has reached 126.7 Billion (3 month 15 Japan ). performance ( The figure below ) Also very bright .


 Value network (Chainlink data , source :https://chain.link/,3.15)


Solana It also has its own native Oracle project ——Pyth. Although the number of currency quotations provided is far less than Chainlink, but Pyth Behind it are Wall Street market makers Jump Tradin、Optiver Other support , It has its own advantages in docking with the traditional financial market . So even if they belong to the prophecy track ,Pyth There are also traditional financial value networks .

Head project :Chainlink,Pyth


6. Trading Institutions ( Cross chain function , And other functions )

At present, the vast majority of transactions are carried out in centralized exchanges . meanwhile , A large number of cross chains are also realized through the charging and withdrawal function of the exchange . But at present, the regulatory pressure on the exchange is the biggest ,2021 In the second half of the year, China's supervision was mainly aimed at the of these centralized exchanges . And although there are many exchanges in the market , But the industry situation has stabilized , Several major head exchanges have occupied a dominant position in the industry . In this case “ The red sea ” market , The breaker ( If there is ) The key lies in how to introduce new assignment nodes into your value network .

Head centralization : Currency security ,Coinbase,FTX.


7. Stable currency : Frax (Curve), UST

When bitcoin gradually fades out of the pricing unit of the blockchain , Stable currency has taken over the task of trading medium . At present, the vast majority of the market is the chain dollar stable currency issued with us dollar currency as collateral USDT and USDC,Tether and Circle The two companies are blockchain “ Bank ”. In addition, there is a US dollar stable currency on the pure chain mortgaged by the original blockchain assets Dai. And semi algorithmic stability Frax, And with Luna For endorsement of UST.

Although bitcoin still plays an important bridging role between reality and blockchain , But this function is being used USDT and USDC Equal share . Even in reality , Stable coins are easier for new players to accept .

Head project :USDT,USDC,MakerDAO,Frax,UST.


8. Cross link (Cross-chain): Bridges, IBC

The cross chain track was first used to BTC Assets are mapped to ETH On , With WBTC As a model . After that, with the gradual formation of multi chain structure, there are more and more cross chain projects . On the one hand, the market welcomes the transfer of assets in a chain way , Connect all public chain Islands , But the recent attacks on cross chain bridges have also made this field controversial . Besides, in terms of cost and efficiency , The cross chain function of centralized exchange has always been a competitive option .

The value of cross chain project comes from the network at both ends of it .

Head project :WBTC,Ren


9. NFT markets and creation

NFT Since the outbreak, a series of projects have sprung up . But just like FT equally , The first thing that stands out is the exchange . and Opensea Has occupied a considerable share of the market . quite a lot NFT The exchange also provides the link of pictures to make NFT The function of . Therefore, the value of such platforms is in addition to the transaction itself , And the artist community behind it .

Head project :Opensea, Rarible, SuperRare


10. DAO

DAO In the future, it may be an important part of blockchain and metauniverse , But at present, there is no typical project in the market . however DAO It is of positive significance for connecting blockchain participants and promoting the industry . Now, of course DAO There are many kinds and functions of , Let's sort it out here .

Head project :snapshot( vote ), Juicebox( Crowd-funding ), discord( Community ), mirror( The media )

End App:

The following three tracks are the current blockchain terminal products . As an end product , The first thing to face is ordinary users ( Although the proportion of giant whales is very high ), Provide users with financial value or entertainment value , Even become a productivity tool for users . It's like a blockchain “ consumer goods ” market .


11. Defi

2020 Year of Defi Summer, In a sense, it is the first batch of applications produced by blockchain .AMM, To loan ,Vaults, Liquidity mining . Among the top tokens in the current market value , Except for the public chain , The remaining considerable part is each Defi Our platform token .

Even for the new public chain (AltL1) Come on ,Defi Medium AMM、 Lending and Vaults It has become the infrastructure of the public chain , Will be given priority by the government .

Head :Uni(AMM),Aave( To loan ),Yearn(Vaults)


12. NFT(collection & art)

at present NFT The mainstream is still avatars and collections , And game props . And although these occupy NFT The mainstream of the market , But they can all find their destination in the meta universe in the form of chain tour .

Head :Cryptopunk( Head portrait ),NBA Top Shot( Collection ),Axie Infinity( Game props )


13. Game

Chain tour satisfies people's preliminary imagination of the meta universe , Moreover, chain tour also needs almost all blockchain tracks so far . So in this sense , Chain tour can bring together the value of the whole blockchain industry . But at present, it still needs time to develop products that are mature enough to change the industry .

Head :Axie Infinity


3、 ... and 、 Empirical research (Empirical Study)

BTC The bridge status and the connecting role of the exchange

BTC As a bridge between the encrypted world and the real world ( See previous research 《 A new perspective of bitcoin Ecology : From cornerstone to bridge 》,https://www.defidaonews.com/article/6716230), Connect with legal currency on the real side , Connect other native encryption assets at the encryption end . On the one hand, capital will affect BTC The blockchain industry behind it votes with money , On the other hand ,BTC Will act as collateral for other chain assets in a sense (Wrapped Assets and transactions in centralized exchanges are pairs of ), So as to condense the value of the whole blockchain .

From the perspective of value network , Reexamine this phenomenon .

When hot money pours in ,BTC The market value is falsely high , But because the value of most other mainstream projects comes partly from BTC, So the market is generally up , Even if you know how high it is .

And vice versa , The increase in the number of blockchain projects , especially BTC The number of surrounding projects has increased , The more value these projects create ,BTC The value of is also rising , Finally reflected in the market value of legal currency .

This effect is two-way , The demonstration shows that almost all mainstream tokens are related to BTC The correlation is not weak , And correlation is just two-way .

In the following figure, we select the 2022 year 3 month 10 Ranked by current market value on a daily basis Top30 project ( except BTC, Stable currency and wrapped assets ). From the time when there are statistics , Based on their daily rise and fall ratio and BTC Correlation analysis of rise and fall . It turns out that , except Shiba Show no correlation ,Leo and Stellar In addition to the weak correlation , other 27 All projects are related to BTC There is a strong correlation between the rise and fall of .


 Value network

BTC In addition to being directly affected by wrapped Beyond the impact of assets , And through a centralized exchange CEX Conduction . For each project , Being on the mainstream exchange also means entering a more valuable network , It is also more closely related to other tokens , It is also easier to assign values to other projects .

To verify the effectiveness of the exchange , In the study in the figure below Event Study, The previous correlation is divided into two stages , Before and after the time division of the mainstream exchange . The exchange tries to choose currency security , If you don't put money on it , Select the exchange with the largest trading volume in this currency to determine the time required on the .

stay Top30 in , Yes 11 There is no data before the project is listed on the mainstream exchange , be left over 19 Of the projects , except Doge and Fantom outside ,17 Each project shows the following and BTC The relevance of . and Doge and Fantom It shows a slight decrease .

This can prove to a certain extent , Mainstream exchanges like Qian'an , Indeed BTC Linking with other tokens provides a considerable role .


 Value network

3、 ... and 、 factors aN、VN and N Empirical evidence of


To prove that each of the three factors can work independently , The next study will try to control the other two variables . And reduce the value of the project to market value .

1. (aN) Tightness of connection : Similar to ecological projects , Closer , The higher the market value

In almost every public chain ecosystem , Almost all public chain projects are in great need and strongly supported by the project parties . Among them AMM Systematic DEX Most widely , Even in ETH After that AltL1 in ,AMM It has become an indispensable infrastructure for a public chain , such as BNB In ecology Pancakeswap. And of course there will be others in the ecology AMM project , But in almost the same public chain Ecology , Use similar architectural mechanisms , However, the market value can only be supported by the official support or not , That is, the tightness of the connection aN, And far apart .


 Value network

2. VN: Similar official projects in different ecosystems (AMM), The market value is positively correlated with the market value of the project public chain .

To examine the impact of the surrounding strong node value , You can still use... In various ecosystems AMM Compare the market value of the project . However, out of the control of the tightness of the connection , Here, the official projects in different public chain ecosystems and the market value of the public chain are selected for comparison .


 Value network

Although there are near A special case of Ecology , But basically the official in the larger Ecology AMM It also has higher value .

3. VN: The market value of the public chain is positively correlated with the number of ecological projects : The more prosperous the ecological public chain , The higher the value of the currency .

The value of the public chain is undoubtedly based on Ecological prosperity . The more ecological projects, the more public chains , The higher the market value .


 Value network

summary

This study applies social network value to the valuation of blockchain primary market for the first time , Provide the market with an alternative to comparative valuation . At the same time, re-examine each segment of the current blockchain industry from the perspective of network value . Last , In this understanding framework , Explain the market phenomenon with empirical evidence .


Reference resources :

1. PlatON Cloud chart 2021 Ecological profile of blockchain industry in - Application ecogroup https://forum.latticex.foundation/t/topic/4622

2. The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success, Albert-laszlo Barabasi, 2019

3. Cosmos Ecological map https://mapofzones.com/

4. Metcalfe's law :Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian (1999). Information Rules. Harvard Business Press. ISBN 978-0-87584-863-1.

5. Kahneman 《 noise : A flaw in human judgment 》,2021

6. A new perspective of bitcoin Ecology : From cornerstone to bridge ,https://www.defidaonews.com/article/6716230


Exemption

This report is prepared by time stamped capital based on public information , Some of the information may be based on statements about future situations 、 Estimate and predict , Timestamp capital strives to, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the above information , No independent verification of any information or independent evaluation of the assets or liabilities of any entity .

Unless otherwise stated , Otherwise, the information described in this agreement is based on economic 、 currency 、 Market and other effective conditions , And the market information as of the date of this material release . Subsequent changes may affect the information shown in this material , Timestamp capital will update our research in due course , But there is no guarantee that .

In any case , The information or opinions expressed in this report do not constitute investment advice to anyone , And it doesn't take into account the specific investment objectives of individual customers 、 Financial situation or needs . This report is for reference only .

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