CGv research: why invest in move to earn?

CGVFoF 2022-04-05 11:18:20 阅读数:694

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The most fascinating thing about the encryption industry is , It never lacks a new narrative .

2022 The first quarter of , Although the encryption industry has experienced the war in Ukraine and Russia 、 Uncertainty such as the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates , but STEPN、Genopets etc. “Move-to-Earn” The continued popularity of the project , Bring a shot to the whole industry “ A tonic ”,“Move-to-Earn” The mode is also quickly recognized by users , And get popular in the market .

Move-to-Earn And Play-to-Earn similar , Briefly , Track real-world motion data through smartphones or wearable devices , And map to the project , If certain task requirements are met , Players can get corresponding rewards . Like in a running app , The amount of exercise is required to reach 5000 Step , The user meets the requirements , You can get token Reward .

CGV Through to “Move-to-Earn” Mode and representative projects are deeply analyzed and judged , We are right. STEPN And so on Web3、 Bold exploration and practice of the integration of encryption and traditional markets , Feel very excited . 

We firmly believe that :Move-to-Earn The track is a new 、 Different from other X-to-Earn Direction of the track , It's just starting to start , In the future, it may become a huge blue ocean market .

Sports Health :Web3 A great scenario for breaking the circle of encryption applications For practitioners in the encryption industry , How to apply encryption technology to Web3, Let more users have access to encryption applications and encrypted digital assets , Is one of the problems that we have been trying to solve . After all , Only new users continue to enter the encryption industry , Do incremental market business , To make the encrypted cake bigger .

Even though Web3 The combination with encryption is already learning 、 social contact 、 Entertainment and other fields are being explored , But in CGV It seems ,Move-to-Earn Sports health market , It has a broader user base and development space . Sports Health , Maybe at this stage Web3 A great scenario for breaking the circle of encryption applications .

Movement is cross-border 、 race 、 Forms of religious and cultural exchanges . Like the Olympic spirit “ faster 、 Higher 、 stronger ”, Sport is the universal value of human society . From the data point of view , The sports crowd is a very large user group : exceed 10 Million people will walk 、 Jogging or fast running as a form of exercise ; The number of users of running apps worldwide has reached 4 Billion ;2021 In, the number of fitness people in China exceeded 3 Billion and so on . If you can expand users in the field of sports , signify Move-to-Earn Can drive millions 、 Even tens of millions of people entered Web3 Market and encryption .

  

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Forecast of global fitness market revenue scale (2019-2028)

source :Runrepeat

The scale of online sports fitness market is developing rapidly . since 2020 Since , More and more people attach importance to health , And start a new way of fitness life , Online fitness relies on convenient and fast use 、 Data monitoring effect 、 Dynamic usage analysis, etc , Become the user's first choice . According to the Runrepeat Statistics , The global online fitness market is expected to 2027 The years will reach 592.31 Billion dollars , from 2020 Year to 2027 The compound annual growth rate in is 33.1%. Users of online sports health application , All are Move-to-Earn Potential user sources .

Exercise health is carbon neutral 、 The theme of the era of environmental protection .Move-to-Earn The original intention of the project , Is to encourage users to participate more in sports , While exercising , Indirectly involved in environmental protection and public welfare , Make your own contribution to the promotion of global carbon neutralization . such as , On the way to the office , In the past 10 Minutes by car , Now change to 30 A minute walk .Move-to-Earn Advocate a low-carbon lifestyle , I believe it will be accepted by more people . 

Web2 Experience and lessons from the application of sports health .Web2 Sports health applications are already a big market , The market for smart watches and wearable devices is heating up ,APP Developers continue to launch new tools and functions , All drive the vitality of the sports health application software market . here , Make a special mention of a running app “ Interesting step ”, Founded on 2018 year 6 month , The number of registered users in China alone once exceeded 7000 ten thousand . But its core model is the Ponzi scheme of drawing people to pay dividends , The final project is running . although “ Interesting step ” It's a negative case , But we can see from the development track , once Move-to-Earn The door of sports and health market is open , How many mass level users will flow into .

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In the field of sports and health Web3 And Web2 Product representative comparison

The pain points and user needs of sports health market are clear . stay CGV It seems , For sports and health APP Users in need , It can be roughly divided into two categories : One is to have a sports plan , But users who are hard to stick to . For many people who have a fitness program , The individual's subjective willingness and enthusiasm to participate are not strong , Habit is not easy to stick to , The movement effect is far less than expected . If you give appropriate incentives and feedback , Will promote individuals to stick to the plan ; The second category is users who have formed fitness habits . For fitness lovers , At the same time of fitness , If it can generate additional additional benefits , Will form new behavior habits , And keep a certain viscosity .

Of course , If it's already there Play-to-Earn Users who taste the sweetness in mode , They also want to be in the new Move-to-Earn In mode , Continue to earn a certain income . This group will also be Move-to-Earn An important participant in .

Move-to-Earn Do not belong to , Also is not equal to Play-to-earn In the encryption circle , There are a lot of media and KOL Tend to put Move-to-Earn attribute to GameFi market , Even equate it with Play-to-Earn A deformation or derivative of .

however ,CGV By comparing game attributes 、 User usage habits 、 Product competition and ultimate user experience , We think ,Move-to-Earn Do not belong to , Also is not equal to Play-to-Earn. The two are quite different :

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Play-to-Earn And Move-to-Earn Comparison of

First of all , The difference between games and Gamification .

Whether it's Axie Infinity Hyperbolic token economy model ,Loot“ Bottom up ” Unique game narrative , still StarAtlas Amazing interface and engine , These projects are typical Play-to-Earn representative .Play-to-Earn Encourage players to earn income through games , That is, players provide labor ( That is, the time and energy of the game ) And capital ( Usually need to buy NFT Join the game ), And through the achievements and progress in the game , Get token rewards .

Games are easy to indulge , And a lot GameFi The rules of the game are complicated , There is a certain threshold for understanding and getting started . And Gamification is a form of expression different from games , Just adopted the rules of the game , In other words , Gamification is just a feedback effect logic extracted from the rules of the game .

and Move-to-Earn Project , Advocate investing in health , With “ Gameplay ” Build and operate products . Quite a few Move-to-Earn When designing and developing our products , Need to be gamed 、Token Economy and App Strike a balance between operations . under these circumstances , Developers will further weaken the elements of Gamification , Because it will cause difficulties in understanding , Or it's very complicated to use .

second , Compete for the difference between user use time and unit time efficiency .

about Play-to-Earn Project , If you choose to play Axie, You can't basically take into account other games , And the total amount of time everyone spends on games every day is also limited , If a person works and sleeps every day , Only a few hours to use , Play well 2 To 3 There are very few people in this game .

And for Move-to-Earn Project , You're choosing apps A At the same time , It doesn't affect your choice of application B, And get more benefits . Let's call it sports mining “ Double digging “. Just imagine , When you're running and working out , You can get... At the same time 2 Share 、3 Share even more revenue , The cost is only to increase the background running of several applications . To do so , Why not ?

It's easier to understand if you take a simple example :Play-to-Earn Competition between projects , similar Facebook And TikTok; and Move-to-Earn Competition between projects , It's similar to Ethereum ETC Differences between mining machines .

The core difference between the two is ,Play-to-Earn It is a competition for the total length of user use , It belongs to stock market competition ( Everyone's leisure game time is limited ), High yield can get more users , Revenue level is the key to product competition ; and Move-to-Earn It is a competition for the use efficiency of users per unit time , It belongs to incremental market competition ( There is no upper limit on the use of product superposition per unit time ), Good product experience can help users form usage habits , Product experience is the key to competition .

If you follow the above logic ,Move-to-Earn Incremental space of ( Maybe several times 、 Even dozens of times ) than Play-to-Earn Much more .

Third , The difference between physical and mental health and spiritual pleasure .

Play-to-Earn The carrier of is the game , It takes players to stare at the screen for a long time , Perform manual operation , In addition to token income , And spiritual pleasure . But in fact ,Play-to-Earn Give players more , Is to make them click on a page with almost the same mechanism design , Instead of enjoying the game itself .

Move-to-Earn It liberates the player's hands and eyes , Fully mobilize the enthusiasm of user movement . No matter how much revenue , The effects of physical exercise are real . however , Somewhat Move-to-Earn The project will encounter “ Too hard ” Users of , Foot fracture 、 Knee injury 、 Muscle strain and other problems also occur occasionally .

in addition , The effects of exercise on health and mental pleasure , Although it is difficult to quantify with numbers , But the social resistance encountered by each user is completely different . Your family or friends will understand and support you to participate in sports , But if you're addicted to games , I believe that more people around you will advise you not to “ sap one's spirit by seeking pleasures ”, Even if you argue ,“ I'm not playing a game , Is making money ”.

STEPN After the explosion ,Move-to-Earn Where are the competitors ? stay 2022 It's about Move-to-Earn, We have to mention STEPN. Objectively , No, STEPN The explosive growth of ,Move-to-Earn The track may not have entered the public's view so quickly .

CGV The team collated some public market data , Brief review STEPN A short and glorious history :

As Solana First on Move-to-Earn NFT game ,2022 year 1 month ,STEPN Announced a complete 500 US $10000 seed round financing , Sequoia Capital India and Folius Ventures Lead investment , A moment of fame ;3 month , Currency security Launchpad Announced Online STEPN Governance token GMT, Less than a month on line ( As of the time of this article ),GMT The price is from 0.001 The dollar rose to 2.8 dollar , about 280 Double the increase ,FDV Peak breakthrough 160 Billion dollars .

If you just see these numbers , Many people will put STEPN Unconsciously fall into a category of projects controlled or coerced by large capital , But actually ,CGV More people may not pay attention to details , They don't seem to be common in crypto circles :

——STEPN Of APP Once ranked fourth in the Japanese application market , American sports APP Rank third ;

—— stay 3 month 16 solstice 30 Within two weeks of the day ,STEPN Consume tokens GST The number of addresses consists of 31k Growth to 78k;

——STEPN Governance token GMT stay 3 month 30 Of the Nippon money exchange 24 The hourly turnover exceeds BTC

Sum up , Whether it's operational data , Or transaction data , All reflect STEPN Strong kinetic energy for further development . It is no wonder that Adidas Vice President, Scott Dunlap Praise many times on social media STEPN:“STEPN Will become 2022 The dark horse of the industry ”“ More people will be obsessed with STEPN”.

in my opinion ,STEPN Today's success , a “ Right place, right time ”, It integrates the underlying technologies of blockchain 、token economic system 、NFT Different achievements in market and other fields , Fully enjoy the dividends of the development of the encryption industry .

First, based on the latest development achievements of blockchain infrastructure layer .

such as , Improvement of public chain performance .STEPN The preferred Solana Public chain , With its high scalability 、 Fast execution 、 Known for its low cost . This is STEPN Function module 、NFT And the interaction of digital assets , Brings a silky user experience . This undoubtedly greatly shortens WEB2 And Web3 User experience gap .

Think about the , If in 2 Launched directly on Ethereum years ago STEPN, Mend your sneakers once , Waiting 30 Minutes to execute instructions , Spend tens of dollars more , How many people will be deterred by this ?

The second is based on Play-to-Earn Development achievements of dual token model and economic system design .

As Play-to-Earn The representative of the Axie, Created a dual token model and economic system design . If you've played the so-called free mobile game , You will understand the gold coin and Diamond System . Gold coins are not worth money , And diamonds are really scarce , You have to work very hard to get them , Or you can buy diamonds directly with legal currency .

STEPN One of the most interesting parts of the profit model , It's also double Token System . Logic of gold coins and diamonds , By GST and GMT Take their place . Although players can get both at the same time , but GMT Supply is limited 、 Higher value and more difficult to obtain . by comparison ,GST It is the fuel consumed by players to do different tasks in the game .

The third is based on NFT The market continues to boom out of the circle and widely educate the development achievements of users .

2021 year , In the celebrity effect ( Stars such as Madonna surpass 50 For $million Bored Apes)、 Driven by factors such as the explosion of the meta universe , Avatar digital collection fire , And ignite the whole NFT market . according to NonFungible data ,2021 year NFT The scale of the transaction reached 176 Billion dollars , Than 2020 Year of 8200 Ten thousand dollars soared 210 times .

NFT Energy is intoxicating . Many startups 、 Multinationals 、 First line stars 、 Hollywood studios and many other companies come together , Discuss and celebrate NFT Disruptive potential in their respective fields . And to this day , This trend shows no sign of slowing down .

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At present, it has NFT Traditional business brands that do business in the field

source : Counterpoint Research

without NFT Project out of circle and NFT Market education , Persuading a user costs nearly 1000 Dollars to buy a pair of virtual NFT Running shoes , Introducing them to two pairs of running shoes can mint New running shoes ……… How difficult it should be ? Need to know ,2021 Years ago , They may all be absurd jokes .

STEPN Hot , Stimulated many competing products to follow . however , There is no project , Can monopolize a track .STEPN They have their own “ Achilles' Heel ”, It's not perfect .

about Move-to-Earn For competitors ,CGV Think , If you try in the following directions , There may be new breakthroughs :

First , Completely recreate a STEPN. This statement sounds incredible , But if you think calmly , This seems to be a feasible direction with high probability . As mentioned above , stay “ Movement is mining ” In the mode of , Give two of the same model at the same time 、 A miner of the same power (Move-to-Earn APP) Electrify , The benefits are superimposed and do not affect each other .

secondly , Choose to support more scenarios .STEPN At present, only walking is supported 、 Limited outdoor sports scenes of running , Connection required GPS System , Not covered, such as : Riding 、 Mountaineering 、 Skiing and other outdoor scenes , And for indoor sports , Such as treadmill exercise and other scenes , Nor can it support relevant data . These are potential opportunities .

Again , Lower the threshold for users to use . at present STEPN User access Move-to-Earn The world of , It will cost at least 800U The cost of buying shoes , For many users , It's not a small expense . If you can spend a few cups of coffee, you can experience APP, Then it will be easier for users to intervene . although STEPN Plan to open the rental function , But we haven't seen the detailed rules yet , We are also constantly observing .

in addition , It's also very important , Enrich sports and social play .CGV Think ,Move-to-Earn Or lead to SociaFi The most convenient way . motion App The image generated by the data makes the exercise of the fitness person have a concrete embodiment ,Facebook、Instagram And other social platforms provide a linkage self display stage for sports and fitness people . therefore , Play with social attributes , Would be Move-to-Earn The project brings huge user stickiness and fission speed .

Move-to-Earn Of “ In the first half ” Risks and “ In the second half ” Opportunity No matter what GameFi、Play-to-Earn project , still X-to-Earn project , Each has its own cycle , As short as a few weeks , As long as months or even years . As the heat decreases 、 The price is falling 、 After the old players are tired or imitation disks appear in large numbers ,Move-to-Earn Will your project “ A flash in the pan ”?

CGV Think , The construction and effective operation of the economic system , It's a decision Move-to-Earn Whether the project can successfully break through the bottleneck period , The key to further opening up the situation .

Simple metaphor , We can compare the economic system to a reservoir , The water flowing into the pool ( The total cost of the user for the project ) More than the water flowing out of the pool ( The total revenue users get from the project ), This economic system can rely on internal circulation for sustainable operation .

Empathy , For a certain paragraph Move-to-Earn project , If more users make money than spend money , So this is a war after all “ Left foot on right foot ” The game of , The money made by users must be the money lost by latecomers .

Besides , The speed of water flowing in and out needs to be strictly controlled , Avoid flowing out too fast within a certain period of time , Causing the reservoir to dry up .

The root cause of the failure of previous projects such as fun step and other similar projects , It is also the above logic . The fun step is that players need to invest in scrolls , Through the scroll 、 Activity generates candy tokens . The end result is , The game became a relay race to pull people's heads , Candy tokens continue to be issued , No consumption scenario , Prices fell in a waterfall , Finally trample on the crash , The reservoir dried up .

And then Axie、STEPN Etc. take “ Dual currency mode ” Project , In terms of economic models , Gradually explore the balance mechanism of token casting and destruction , This provides an important basis for the inflow and outflow control of water velocity in the reservoir .

With STEPN For example , To consume tokens GST And governance tokens GMT Created a variety of scenes , Improve ease of use , For example, use GST You can upgrade your shoes 、 Accelerate upgrade time 、 Mend shoes 、 Synthetic new shoes, etc ; Control at the same time GST、GMT Produce , both , Reduce dumping pressure . It is difficult for players to simply seek rent by digging, selling and selling , Asset returns are implicitly limited and diversified . This avoids the project from falling into a death spiral to some extent . 

CGV Think ,Move-to-Earn The boom has just begun , Belong to Move-to-Earn Of “ In the second half ” About to open . In the next few months or 1 To 2 During the year , We may see the following new changes :

The first encryption application with tens of millions of users was born .2022 year Move-to-Earn The trend of will sweep the whole Web2 and Web3 field , Whether it's encrypted users 、 Fitness experts are from all walks of life KOL, Will be coerced by this wave of tide , And spontaneously shout and publicize .Play-to-Earn Of Axie Once in the 2021 It was all the rage in , Captured millions of users ,Move-to-Earn The number of users will greatly exceed this number . After all , take a walk 、 People who run are more than one order of magnitude larger than those who play krypton .

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Asics It's the first entry NFT Sportswear brands in the field

“ Movement is mining ” Become X-to-Earn Classic model of . Exercise may be X-to-Earn Best application scenario .Move-to-Earn The model makes the concept of movement as mining deeply rooted in the hearts of the people , Plus with STEPN Represented by a series of applications in the exploration and practice of token economic model , Explore more scenes X-to-Earn The model sets a model . meanwhile , With more Move-to-Earn Project release , They will provide users with sports incentives “ mill ” More diversified and personalized choices .

The cooperation between encryption application and traditional business has entered a new chapter . The encryption movement is rapidly entering the mainstream , It is not just traditional financial institutions that are investing capital in encrypted assets , Many mainstream consumer brands are still embracing NFT, such as Visa purchase CryptoPunk, To Coca Cola and McDonald's launch NFT souvenir . and Move-to-Earn The application scenario not only opens up the sports and fitness hardware 、APP、 Clothing brand 、 Traditional business partners such as luxury fashion brands , Will also fully integrate NFT、 Encrypted economic elements such as encrypted assets , This brings new possibilities for cooperation between traditional business and encryption applications .

A16z Co-founder of Chris Dixon Said more than ten years ago ,“ The next big thing will start with something that looks like a toy .” 

Move It's boring and simple and repetitive , but Move-to-Earn It's really colorful .

Maybe , We can get from Move-to-Earn In the innovation of , To glimpse at “ next big thing ”Web3 The prototype of application .

About CGV FOF:CGV FOF Is a master fund from Asia , Focus on investing Crypto Fund and Crypto Studio.CGV FOF By day 、 Han 、 Family funds such as Chinese mainland and Taiwan , Headquartered in Japan , Singapore and Canada also have branches .

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