CGVFoF 2022-04-05 11:18:20 阅读数:694
The most fascinating thing about the encryption industry is , It never lacks a new narrative .
2022 The first quarter of , Although the encryption industry has experienced the war in Ukraine and Russia 、 Uncertainty such as the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates , but STEPN、Genopets etc. “Move-to-Earn” The continued popularity of the project , Bring a shot to the whole industry “ A tonic ”,“Move-to-Earn” The mode is also quickly recognized by users , And get popular in the market .
Move-to-Earn And Play-to-Earn similar , Briefly , Track real-world motion data through smartphones or wearable devices , And map to the project , If certain task requirements are met , Players can get corresponding rewards . Like in a running app , The amount of exercise is required to reach 5000 Step , The user meets the requirements , You can get token Reward .
CGV Through to “Move-to-Earn” Mode and representative projects are deeply analyzed and judged , We are right. STEPN And so on Web3、 Bold exploration and practice of the integration of encryption and traditional markets , Feel very excited .
We firmly believe that ：Move-to-Earn The track is a new 、 Different from other X-to-Earn Direction of the track , It's just starting to start , In the future, it may become a huge blue ocean market .
Sports Health ：Web3 A great scenario for breaking the circle of encryption applications For practitioners in the encryption industry , How to apply encryption technology to Web3, Let more users have access to encryption applications and encrypted digital assets , Is one of the problems that we have been trying to solve . After all , Only new users continue to enter the encryption industry , Do incremental market business , To make the encrypted cake bigger .
Even though Web3 The combination with encryption is already learning 、 social contact 、 Entertainment and other fields are being explored , But in CGV It seems ,Move-to-Earn Sports health market , It has a broader user base and development space . Sports Health , Maybe at this stage Web3 A great scenario for breaking the circle of encryption applications .
Movement is cross-border 、 race 、 Forms of religious and cultural exchanges . Like the Olympic spirit “ faster 、 Higher 、 stronger ”, Sport is the universal value of human society . From the data point of view , The sports crowd is a very large user group ： exceed 10 Million people will walk 、 Jogging or fast running as a form of exercise ; The number of users of running apps worldwide has reached 4 Billion ;2021 In, the number of fitness people in China exceeded 3 Billion and so on . If you can expand users in the field of sports , signify Move-to-Earn Can drive millions 、 Even tens of millions of people entered Web3 Market and encryption .
Forecast of global fitness market revenue scale （2019-2028）
The scale of online sports fitness market is developing rapidly . since 2020 Since , More and more people attach importance to health , And start a new way of fitness life , Online fitness relies on convenient and fast use 、 Data monitoring effect 、 Dynamic usage analysis, etc , Become the user's first choice . According to the Runrepeat Statistics , The global online fitness market is expected to 2027 The years will reach 592.31 Billion dollars , from 2020 Year to 2027 The compound annual growth rate in is 33.1%. Users of online sports health application , All are Move-to-Earn Potential user sources .
Exercise health is carbon neutral 、 The theme of the era of environmental protection .Move-to-Earn The original intention of the project , Is to encourage users to participate more in sports , While exercising , Indirectly involved in environmental protection and public welfare , Make your own contribution to the promotion of global carbon neutralization . such as , On the way to the office , In the past 10 Minutes by car , Now change to 30 A minute walk .Move-to-Earn Advocate a low-carbon lifestyle , I believe it will be accepted by more people .
Web2 Experience and lessons from the application of sports health .Web2 Sports health applications are already a big market , The market for smart watches and wearable devices is heating up ,APP Developers continue to launch new tools and functions , All drive the vitality of the sports health application software market . here , Make a special mention of a running app “ Interesting step ”, Founded on 2018 year 6 month , The number of registered users in China alone once exceeded 7000 ten thousand . But its core model is the Ponzi scheme of drawing people to pay dividends , The final project is running . although “ Interesting step ” It's a negative case , But we can see from the development track , once Move-to-Earn The door of sports and health market is open , How many mass level users will flow into .
In the field of sports and health Web3 And Web2 Product representative comparison
The pain points and user needs of sports health market are clear . stay CGV It seems , For sports and health APP Users in need , It can be roughly divided into two categories ： One is to have a sports plan , But users who are hard to stick to . For many people who have a fitness program , The individual's subjective willingness and enthusiasm to participate are not strong , Habit is not easy to stick to , The movement effect is far less than expected . If you give appropriate incentives and feedback , Will promote individuals to stick to the plan ; The second category is users who have formed fitness habits . For fitness lovers , At the same time of fitness , If it can generate additional additional benefits , Will form new behavior habits , And keep a certain viscosity .
Of course , If it's already there Play-to-Earn Users who taste the sweetness in mode , They also want to be in the new Move-to-Earn In mode , Continue to earn a certain income . This group will also be Move-to-Earn An important participant in .
Move-to-Earn Do not belong to , Also is not equal to Play-to-earn In the encryption circle , There are a lot of media and KOL Tend to put Move-to-Earn attribute to GameFi market , Even equate it with Play-to-Earn A deformation or derivative of .
however ,CGV By comparing game attributes 、 User usage habits 、 Product competition and ultimate user experience , We think ,Move-to-Earn Do not belong to , Also is not equal to Play-to-Earn. The two are quite different ：
Play-to-Earn And Move-to-Earn Comparison of
First of all , The difference between games and Gamification .
Whether it's Axie Infinity Hyperbolic token economy model ,Loot“ Bottom up ” Unique game narrative , still StarAtlas Amazing interface and engine , These projects are typical Play-to-Earn representative .Play-to-Earn Encourage players to earn income through games , That is, players provide labor （ That is, the time and energy of the game ） And capital （ Usually need to buy NFT Join the game ）, And through the achievements and progress in the game , Get token rewards .
Games are easy to indulge , And a lot GameFi The rules of the game are complicated , There is a certain threshold for understanding and getting started . And Gamification is a form of expression different from games , Just adopted the rules of the game , In other words , Gamification is just a feedback effect logic extracted from the rules of the game .
and Move-to-Earn Project , Advocate investing in health , With “ Gameplay ” Build and operate products . Quite a few Move-to-Earn When designing and developing our products , Need to be gamed 、Token Economy and App Strike a balance between operations . under these circumstances , Developers will further weaken the elements of Gamification , Because it will cause difficulties in understanding , Or it's very complicated to use .
second , Compete for the difference between user use time and unit time efficiency .
about Play-to-Earn Project , If you choose to play Axie, You can't basically take into account other games , And the total amount of time everyone spends on games every day is also limited , If a person works and sleeps every day , Only a few hours to use , Play well 2 To 3 There are very few people in this game .
And for Move-to-Earn Project , You're choosing apps A At the same time , It doesn't affect your choice of application B, And get more benefits . Let's call it sports mining “ Double digging “. Just imagine , When you're running and working out , You can get... At the same time 2 Share 、3 Share even more revenue , The cost is only to increase the background running of several applications . To do so , Why not ？
It's easier to understand if you take a simple example ：Play-to-Earn Competition between projects , similar Facebook And TikTok; and Move-to-Earn Competition between projects , It's similar to Ethereum ETC Differences between mining machines .
The core difference between the two is ,Play-to-Earn It is a competition for the total length of user use , It belongs to stock market competition （ Everyone's leisure game time is limited ）, High yield can get more users , Revenue level is the key to product competition ; and Move-to-Earn It is a competition for the use efficiency of users per unit time , It belongs to incremental market competition （ There is no upper limit on the use of product superposition per unit time ）, Good product experience can help users form usage habits , Product experience is the key to competition .
If you follow the above logic ,Move-to-Earn Incremental space of （ Maybe several times 、 Even dozens of times ） than Play-to-Earn Much more .
Third , The difference between physical and mental health and spiritual pleasure .
Play-to-Earn The carrier of is the game , It takes players to stare at the screen for a long time , Perform manual operation , In addition to token income , And spiritual pleasure . But in fact ,Play-to-Earn Give players more , Is to make them click on a page with almost the same mechanism design , Instead of enjoying the game itself .
Move-to-Earn It liberates the player's hands and eyes , Fully mobilize the enthusiasm of user movement . No matter how much revenue , The effects of physical exercise are real . however , Somewhat Move-to-Earn The project will encounter “ Too hard ” Users of , Foot fracture 、 Knee injury 、 Muscle strain and other problems also occur occasionally .
in addition , The effects of exercise on health and mental pleasure , Although it is difficult to quantify with numbers , But the social resistance encountered by each user is completely different . Your family or friends will understand and support you to participate in sports , But if you're addicted to games , I believe that more people around you will advise you not to “ sap one's spirit by seeking pleasures ”, Even if you argue ,“ I'm not playing a game , Is making money ”.
STEPN After the explosion ,Move-to-Earn Where are the competitors ？ stay 2022 It's about Move-to-Earn, We have to mention STEPN. Objectively , No, STEPN The explosive growth of ,Move-to-Earn The track may not have entered the public's view so quickly .
CGV The team collated some public market data , Brief review STEPN A short and glorious history ：
As Solana First on Move-to-Earn NFT game ,2022 year 1 month ,STEPN Announced a complete 500 US $10000 seed round financing , Sequoia Capital India and Folius Ventures Lead investment , A moment of fame ;3 month , Currency security Launchpad Announced Online STEPN Governance token GMT, Less than a month on line （ As of the time of this article ）,GMT The price is from 0.001 The dollar rose to 2.8 dollar , about 280 Double the increase ,FDV Peak breakthrough 160 Billion dollars .
If you just see these numbers , Many people will put STEPN Unconsciously fall into a category of projects controlled or coerced by large capital , But actually ,CGV More people may not pay attention to details , They don't seem to be common in crypto circles ：
——STEPN Of APP Once ranked fourth in the Japanese application market , American sports APP Rank third ;
—— stay 3 month 16 solstice 30 Within two weeks of the day ,STEPN Consume tokens GST The number of addresses consists of 31k Growth to 78k;
——STEPN Governance token GMT stay 3 month 30 Of the Nippon money exchange 24 The hourly turnover exceeds BTC
Sum up , Whether it's operational data , Or transaction data , All reflect STEPN Strong kinetic energy for further development . It is no wonder that Adidas Vice President, Scott Dunlap Praise many times on social media STEPN：“STEPN Will become 2022 The dark horse of the industry ”“ More people will be obsessed with STEPN”.
in my opinion ,STEPN Today's success , a “ Right place, right time ”, It integrates the underlying technologies of blockchain 、token economic system 、NFT Different achievements in market and other fields , Fully enjoy the dividends of the development of the encryption industry .
First, based on the latest development achievements of blockchain infrastructure layer .
such as , Improvement of public chain performance .STEPN The preferred Solana Public chain , With its high scalability 、 Fast execution 、 Known for its low cost . This is STEPN Function module 、NFT And the interaction of digital assets , Brings a silky user experience . This undoubtedly greatly shortens WEB2 And Web3 User experience gap .
Think about the , If in 2 Launched directly on Ethereum years ago STEPN, Mend your sneakers once , Waiting 30 Minutes to execute instructions , Spend tens of dollars more , How many people will be deterred by this ？
The second is based on Play-to-Earn Development achievements of dual token model and economic system design .
As Play-to-Earn The representative of the Axie, Created a dual token model and economic system design . If you've played the so-called free mobile game , You will understand the gold coin and Diamond System . Gold coins are not worth money , And diamonds are really scarce , You have to work very hard to get them , Or you can buy diamonds directly with legal currency .
STEPN One of the most interesting parts of the profit model , It's also double Token System . Logic of gold coins and diamonds , By GST and GMT Take their place . Although players can get both at the same time , but GMT Supply is limited 、 Higher value and more difficult to obtain . by comparison ,GST It is the fuel consumed by players to do different tasks in the game .
The third is based on NFT The market continues to boom out of the circle and widely educate the development achievements of users .
2021 year , In the celebrity effect （ Stars such as Madonna surpass 50 For $million Bored Apes）、 Driven by factors such as the explosion of the meta universe , Avatar digital collection fire , And ignite the whole NFT market . according to NonFungible data ,2021 year NFT The scale of the transaction reached 176 Billion dollars , Than 2020 Year of 8200 Ten thousand dollars soared 210 times .
NFT Energy is intoxicating . Many startups 、 Multinationals 、 First line stars 、 Hollywood studios and many other companies come together , Discuss and celebrate NFT Disruptive potential in their respective fields . And to this day , This trend shows no sign of slowing down .
At present, it has NFT Traditional business brands that do business in the field
source : Counterpoint Research
without NFT Project out of circle and NFT Market education , Persuading a user costs nearly 1000 Dollars to buy a pair of virtual NFT Running shoes , Introducing them to two pairs of running shoes can mint New running shoes ……… How difficult it should be ？ Need to know ,2021 Years ago , They may all be absurd jokes .
STEPN Hot , Stimulated many competing products to follow . however , There is no project , Can monopolize a track .STEPN They have their own “ Achilles' Heel ”, It's not perfect .
about Move-to-Earn For competitors ,CGV Think , If you try in the following directions , There may be new breakthroughs ：
First , Completely recreate a STEPN. This statement sounds incredible , But if you think calmly , This seems to be a feasible direction with high probability . As mentioned above , stay “ Movement is mining ” In the mode of , Give two of the same model at the same time 、 A miner of the same power （Move-to-Earn APP） Electrify , The benefits are superimposed and do not affect each other .
secondly , Choose to support more scenarios .STEPN At present, only walking is supported 、 Limited outdoor sports scenes of running , Connection required GPS System , Not covered, such as ： Riding 、 Mountaineering 、 Skiing and other outdoor scenes , And for indoor sports , Such as treadmill exercise and other scenes , Nor can it support relevant data . These are potential opportunities .
Again , Lower the threshold for users to use . at present STEPN User access Move-to-Earn The world of , It will cost at least 800U The cost of buying shoes , For many users , It's not a small expense . If you can spend a few cups of coffee, you can experience APP, Then it will be easier for users to intervene . although STEPN Plan to open the rental function , But we haven't seen the detailed rules yet , We are also constantly observing .
in addition , It's also very important , Enrich sports and social play .CGV Think ,Move-to-Earn Or lead to SociaFi The most convenient way . motion App The image generated by the data makes the exercise of the fitness person have a concrete embodiment ,Facebook、Instagram And other social platforms provide a linkage self display stage for sports and fitness people . therefore , Play with social attributes , Would be Move-to-Earn The project brings huge user stickiness and fission speed .
Move-to-Earn Of “ In the first half ” Risks and “ In the second half ” Opportunity No matter what GameFi、Play-to-Earn project , still X-to-Earn project , Each has its own cycle , As short as a few weeks , As long as months or even years . As the heat decreases 、 The price is falling 、 After the old players are tired or imitation disks appear in large numbers ,Move-to-Earn Will your project “ A flash in the pan ”？
CGV Think , The construction and effective operation of the economic system , It's a decision Move-to-Earn Whether the project can successfully break through the bottleneck period , The key to further opening up the situation .
Simple metaphor , We can compare the economic system to a reservoir , The water flowing into the pool （ The total cost of the user for the project ） More than the water flowing out of the pool （ The total revenue users get from the project ）, This economic system can rely on internal circulation for sustainable operation .
Empathy , For a certain paragraph Move-to-Earn project , If more users make money than spend money , So this is a war after all “ Left foot on right foot ” The game of , The money made by users must be the money lost by latecomers .
Besides , The speed of water flowing in and out needs to be strictly controlled , Avoid flowing out too fast within a certain period of time , Causing the reservoir to dry up .
The root cause of the failure of previous projects such as fun step and other similar projects , It is also the above logic . The fun step is that players need to invest in scrolls , Through the scroll 、 Activity generates candy tokens . The end result is , The game became a relay race to pull people's heads , Candy tokens continue to be issued , No consumption scenario , Prices fell in a waterfall , Finally trample on the crash , The reservoir dried up .
And then Axie、STEPN Etc. take “ Dual currency mode ” Project , In terms of economic models , Gradually explore the balance mechanism of token casting and destruction , This provides an important basis for the inflow and outflow control of water velocity in the reservoir .
With STEPN For example , To consume tokens GST And governance tokens GMT Created a variety of scenes , Improve ease of use , For example, use GST You can upgrade your shoes 、 Accelerate upgrade time 、 Mend shoes 、 Synthetic new shoes, etc ; Control at the same time GST、GMT Produce , both , Reduce dumping pressure . It is difficult for players to simply seek rent by digging, selling and selling , Asset returns are implicitly limited and diversified . This avoids the project from falling into a death spiral to some extent .
CGV Think ,Move-to-Earn The boom has just begun , Belong to Move-to-Earn Of “ In the second half ” About to open . In the next few months or 1 To 2 During the year , We may see the following new changes ：
The first encryption application with tens of millions of users was born .2022 year Move-to-Earn The trend of will sweep the whole Web2 and Web3 field , Whether it's encrypted users 、 Fitness experts are from all walks of life KOL, Will be coerced by this wave of tide , And spontaneously shout and publicize .Play-to-Earn Of Axie Once in the 2021 It was all the rage in , Captured millions of users ,Move-to-Earn The number of users will greatly exceed this number . After all , take a walk 、 People who run are more than one order of magnitude larger than those who play krypton .
Asics It's the first entry NFT Sportswear brands in the field
“ Movement is mining ” Become X-to-Earn Classic model of . Exercise may be X-to-Earn Best application scenario .Move-to-Earn The model makes the concept of movement as mining deeply rooted in the hearts of the people , Plus with STEPN Represented by a series of applications in the exploration and practice of token economic model , Explore more scenes X-to-Earn The model sets a model . meanwhile , With more Move-to-Earn Project release , They will provide users with sports incentives “ mill ” More diversified and personalized choices .
The cooperation between encryption application and traditional business has entered a new chapter . The encryption movement is rapidly entering the mainstream , It is not just traditional financial institutions that are investing capital in encrypted assets , Many mainstream consumer brands are still embracing NFT, such as Visa purchase CryptoPunk, To Coca Cola and McDonald's launch NFT souvenir . and Move-to-Earn The application scenario not only opens up the sports and fitness hardware 、APP、 Clothing brand 、 Traditional business partners such as luxury fashion brands , Will also fully integrate NFT、 Encrypted economic elements such as encrypted assets , This brings new possibilities for cooperation between traditional business and encryption applications .
A16z Co-founder of Chris Dixon Said more than ten years ago ,“ The next big thing will start with something that looks like a toy .”
Move It's boring and simple and repetitive , but Move-to-Earn It's really colorful .
Maybe , We can get from Move-to-Earn In the innovation of , To glimpse at “ next big thing ”Web3 The prototype of application .
About CGV FOF：CGV FOF Is a master fund from Asia , Focus on investing Crypto Fund and Crypto Studio.CGV FOF By day 、 Han 、 Family funds such as Chinese mainland and Taiwan , Headquartered in Japan , Singapore and Canada also have branches .