The tide ran away from the yuan universe, and the new bottle continued to contain the old wine

The way of meta universe 2022-04-05 03:40:17 阅读数:616

tide ran away yuan universe

There is still no new story about selling servers .

author   |  Wang Siyuan

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Reprinted from Financial news (ID:caijingxinzhi)

The last two years , Any company with technology , You have to rub the heat of the meta universe , It seems to have become a consensus in the industry .

last year 3 month , from Roblox take “ Meta universe ” Write it into the prospectus and start , The wind is blowing . Half a year later , Abroad Facebook renamed Meta, At home BAT The three companies followed in their footsteps , Microsoft 、 Super giants like apple finally gave up their stature .

Recently in the domestic market , There is an upstream company closest to these science and technology network enterprises , Also began to engage in the meta universe , It is the leader in the server field —— Wave information .

Back in the last century 90 s , Sun Pishu, the current chairman of Inspur Group , Lead the team to develop the first minicomputer server in China . This was all the way at that time IT Players gather PC In the case of the field , It's a new way .

As the first person to eat crabs in the server industry , Inspur information with the development of domestic server market , It has become one of the most powerful server manufacturers in China , Stand on the top of the wave .

But when Inspur information desperately sells server equipment . Huawei 、 Colleagues such as Zhongke Shuguang have turned to , Start to develop further upstream of the supply chain .

Because the homogenization of domestic server manufacturers is extremely serious , And as a midstream enterprise in the supply chain , If you lack core technology , So it's essentially a large assembly plant , Eventually, it will not become stronger even if it is bigger , This is also the difficulty under the current situation of Inspur information .

Once the wave of information was in the development of the times , There have been countless opportunities , Continuous investment in solutions and chips , But sun Pishu, a technical worker, insisted “ MaoGongJi ” This relatively mature and conservative way .

But sun Pishu is good at “ Eat crab ” People who , Under the vent of the meta universe , Inspur information has become the first enterprise in the industry to enter the meta universe , It's just , Wave information without core technology may still not have much room for imagination .

01 A big but not strong wave

As the world's second 、 The largest server manufacturer in China , Genzheng Miaohong's Inspur information is undoubtedly the representative of the independent server industry .

But a little observation will find that , Servers were sold twenty years ago , Just like Lenovo sells computers , It's a fat man with a lot of money , Now it's actually a brick moving job that only makes shouting but no money , The state of existence can also be summarized by receiving Qi from top to bottom .

Because Inspur information is the upstream supply chain that determines the fate , Or downstream customers have weaknesses , And directly decided “ Big but not strong ” Plight .

From upstream , Supply three key equipment to Inspur information server CPU、 Memory and disk are all Intel 、 Ying Wei Da 、 samsung 、 Seagate 、 Western Digital, these enterprises with monopoly ability .

According to the annual report , from 2019 Year begins , The total purchase proportion of the top five suppliers of Inspur information exceeds 60%, The cumulative amount is more than 291 RMB 100 million , To 2020 In, this figure reached 381 Billion .

As the largest supplier , The total supply of Intel and NVIDIA, two core chip manufacturers, amounted to 240 One hundred million yuan , Proportion to 41%; In addition, Seagate 、 Samsung and other hard disk and memory suppliers , The supply amount exceeds 40 One hundred million yuan . This also makes Inspur information almost have no bargaining power in the face of upstream supply chain manufacturers .

although 2021 The annual data have not been released yet , But it can be expected that , At present, Inspur information has not made a breakthrough in the three core devices of the server , According to the new products released, no new suppliers have been found .

Over reliance on upstream manufacturers , It is also easy to fall into the risk of supply interruption .

2020 year 7 month 1 Japan , Intel announced that , Temporary suspension of supply to Inspur . Affected by this , Inspur information's share price plunged sharply in the afternoon of that day , And quickly hit the limit .

Later confirmed by Intel and Inspur information , This is just that Intel needs to make some corresponding adjustments to the supply chain in accordance with the relevant laws of the United States , As a result, we have to temporarily suspend the supply to this customer , The suspension period is expected to be two weeks .

Although it was a false alarm , But it exposes the weakness of wave information . Some people in the industry also said ,“ According to the style of the US government , Even if I don't beat you today , There's no guarantee that one day I'll do it to you , Any Chinese server manufacturer has the risk of being cut off by the United States at any time , It is urgent to strengthen the ability of self-control .”

Inspur information seems to disagree with this . An investor once asked on the open platform , Short term power outage for Intel in the United States , What is the company's response ? Whether to layout the chip and processor industry , Whether domestic processor Godson can be used to replace , Have you always adopted American suppliers? Is it easy to be controlled by others ?

Inspur information responded that , The company's production and operation are normal at present ,Intel Supply has been resumed . The company's business orientation is the research and development of the complete server 、 production 、 sales , Server products can adapt to a variety of architecture processors, including domestic processors .

Such an answer , Obviously, it is difficult to satisfy netizens . Many professionals point out that : If we recognize the current international situation 、 Especially the supply chain situation , It's not hard to see. , Whether for Chinese manufacturers such as Inspur or Lenovo , If you still put your eggs in a basket , Obviously, it is not so safe .

Of course , Inspur information does not want to master the core technology , Previously, there have been actions to explore in the field of high-end technology .

2009 year 5 month , Qimonda Technology ( Xi'an ) Ltd. was taken by Inspur , Renamed Xi'an Huaxin . at that time , This move of Inspur is interpreted as that Shandong has begun to vigorously develop the integrated circuit industry .

Authoritative experts in the industry also said , Qimengda Xi'an R & D center has the world's most advanced semiconductor memory product design and development ability , This acquisition enables Inspur to have a memory chip design and development team with international advanced technology level , Take a substantial step to build China's independent memory industry .

It's just that the later stories are very sad . The wave no longer follows the trend of semiconductor development “ wave ”, Take the initiative to give up Xi'an Huaxin with high gold content , Continue to start the server business .

The reason behind this , Insiders have revealed that ,“ The R & D cost is too high , The R & D cycle is too long , The result is also unknown , These are the factors for Inspur to give up Huaxin ”.

Look at the customers of Inspur information , Relatively concentrated , Most of them are strong Internet companies and government related units . data display , In the income of Inspur information , Yes 65% The above is from Internet enterprises . Among them, Alibaba cloud 、 Baidu cloud 、 Tencent cloud and other domestic cloud service providers , More than 90% of them are their customers .

At present, Inspur information mostly adopts JDM(Join Design Manufacture) Development mode , That is, jointly develop with enterprises , This makes its R & D and supply cycle must be greatly shortened , In addition, for these large customers , The required account period is generally longer .

This will lead to , On the surface, these customers can bring good market share and revenue to Inspur , But in terms of actual profits , Can reflect little value . Some insiders also said , These internet customers , Inspur information is basically shouting at a loss , Almost no bargaining power .

It's the same thing . From the past financial reports of Inspur information , Its net profit has stabilized to less than 3%, Even in the domestic market, the shipment volume is far behind the wave of Zhongke dawn , The net interest rate also has 6.7%.

It can be considered that , Inspur information in the domestic and even global server market , The so-called growth and leadership , Not because its products have extremely high technical barriers and irreplaceable , More because of this “ Exchange price for quantity ” The new model has won the first mover advantage in the market .

At present, peers in the industry , Including HUAWEI 、 Zhongke Shuguang and other enterprises are developing their own chips , go “ Technology, industry and trade ” Route , And have some achievements , Although it is difficult to realize the independent control of high-end chips in the short term , But for capital markets , To some extent, self-developed chips represent imagination space , It represents more room for growth .

But Inspur information has no plan to develop high-end technology by itself , So in other words , Want to keep growing , We need to tell more new stories in the server market , Their downstream service providers are doing metauniverse , It seems to be the best story to tell right now .

02 Is the universe an opportunity ?

This year, 3 At the beginning of , Wave information IPF2022 The conference was held as scheduled , At this conference to show yourself to the outside world , Inspur information takes out the first meta universe server in the industry MetaEngine.

There is no denying , This wave of information has become the enterprise that eats crabs .

But looking back at the company's strategy in recent years , Whether it's Intelligent Computing 、 Open computing or Intelligent Computing Center , These waves are the first to enter the field , Only provide them with bigger capital , There has not been much breakthrough in core technical barriers , Of course, the most important thing is that these new businesses have not improved the bad earnings .

from 2019 Year to 2021 First three quarters , The revenue of Inspur information is 516 One hundred million yuan 、630 One hundred million yuan 、462 One hundred million yuan , There has been no significant growth , Besides , The annual net profit margin is still pitifully low .

Some insiders said , Over the years, Inspur information can often be the first “ Eat crab ” The enterprise , In fact, the main reason is the demand from customers .

Because most of the customers of Inspur information are the world's top Internet enterprises , The increasing demand for these enterprises , And the tide JDM The model can make it understand the customer's needs in more detail . It means , Inspur information can get product feedback faster than its peers to a certain extent , Product update frequency will naturally be faster .

Into the meta universe , Introduction MetaEngine Is the same . Many customers of Inspur information service , Are exploring the meta universe , And higher computational power is needed to build and run the metauniverse , Using traditional servers has been stretched , Inspur information, which is closer to customers, can also launch meta universe server faster and targeted , To meet customer needs .

So the foresight of Inspur information , To some extent, it can be understood as , A behavior of downstream service providers forcing midstream suppliers .

However, although Inspur information can rely on such advantages to lead into new fields , Take the lead in the market , But in essence, it can not change its big but not strong core problem , It can't even change the current situation of low profits , This entry into the meta universe is no exception .

First , The action of wave information in the meta universe , It has not changed the current situation of upstream and downstream . No, not at the moment , The future will not change at least for a long time .

Because according to MetaEngine The matching chip 、 The storage unit can see , Its main core components still rely on NVIDIA 、 Intel 、 Seagate and other old suppliers ; Downstream buyers, not to mention , They are based on the needs of the universe .

Even into “ Meta cosmic age ” The wave information of , Whether upstream or downstream , Are still similar to before , It belongs to the two ends .

Besides , The metauniverse is still in its infancy , Even the most radical Meta Founder Zuckerberg said ,“ Distance to the functional metauniverse , It may take a few more years . The metauniverse we know and witness at present , It also belongs to the conceptual meta universe .”

under these circumstances , Early layout doesn't seem to be a good choice . As a midstream enterprise in the industrial chain , The upper limit of its products is still determined by the upstream enterprises of the supply chain . It can be understood that the meta universe server of Inspur information is essentially , Yes, there will be more 、 Higher end processors 、 Storage media, etc 、 It's just optimized together .

in other words , Even if the future wave information can rely on the meta universe to expand its revenue , But in terms of net profit , It may still be in a difficult situation .

Of course , The fact that the outside world is not optimistic about Inspur information stems from the word chip . Because different from other industries , In the realm of servers , There are many so-called independent core chip genres in China , But there is no name of wave information .

There is haiguang under the Shuguang banner of Zhongke , Huawei has Kunpeng , Both have the ability to develop their own chips , Although there is still a gap with the world's top chips , But this is obviously more imaginative than wave information without this ability , This can be well reflected in the secondary market .

The market share of Inspur information is much higher than that of Zhongke dawning , But the market value of Zhongke dawn is billions higher than that of Inspur information , P / E ratio (TTM) aspect , As of the date of publication, the closing price is , The P / E ratio of Zhongke Shuguang is 43 times , In contrast, the wave information is only 18 times . To a certain extent, this can also reflect that the dawn of Zhongke is relatively more imaginative .

Many years ago , Inspur information has tried “ Technology, industry and trade ” Pattern , Although finally abandoned with tears . But today , Inspur information has occupied a leading market share , In this case ,“ MaoGongJi ” The pattern is clearly out of place , Go again “ Technology, industry and trade ” It's imminent .

Because if the profit margin is suppressed for a long time , It will greatly limit the growth space of Inspur information , And the story of assembling the server will be finished sooner or later , Without core technology, it is bound to become a mine that can detonate at any time .

Inspur information is good at being the first “ Eat crab ” The company , But the wave of eating crabs so much , But has not been able to create a set of tools with core patents , And as we all know , If you don't have a set of equipment to eat crabs , Meat you can eat , In fact, there are very few .

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