Only 6.3% of the people are willing to spend more than 500 yuan for virtual idols. Beware of survivor bias

Fantasy space 2022-04-05 01:18:02 阅读数:752

people willing spend yuan virtual

source : Works of xinmou Technology Group

author | Ye Jing

edit | Sang Mingqiang

The original title :《 The virtual human is on fire , so what ?》

People have never stopped studying virtual people .

It points to virtual characters with digital shapes , Virtual human first appeared in the last century 80 years , Comic 《 Robotech: The Macross Saga 》 In the song Ji Lin Mingmei , After that ,Max It is well known in the UK by acting in films and advertisements , As a sign , The virtual human industry has officially entered the embryonic stage .

Limited by technology , At that time, the production of virtual human was mainly hand-painted , until 21 At the beginning of the century , Traditional technology is CG、 Mobile capture 、 Rendering and other computer technologies replace , Plus the improvement of speech synthesis technology , Using holographic projection technology 、 The first sound of the two-dimensional virtual idol holding the concert will be born in the future , Super high popularity directly pushes the commercial value of virtual human to the peak .

From the beginning to the future 、 Luo Tianyi , To Liu Yexi 、 Li Weike , People's depiction of virtual people began to jump away from virtual idols , Enterprise employees 、 Entertainment stars 、 Anchor with goods 、 Virtual separation …… Digital virtual people from all walks of life are constantly emerging , from 2D To 3D, Static to dynamic interactive , There are more and more ways to play virtual people .

According to the incomplete statistics of xinmou ,2020 year , The financing of virtual human related enterprises has reached 1713 rise , here we are 2021 year , Redwood 、IDG、 First tier funds including Shunwei capital also entered the market one after another , The number of financing in the field of virtual human soared to 2843 rise , The cumulative amount is more than 2540 One hundred million yuan . When “ Counterfeiting ability ” Far beyond people's ability to distinguish , The narrative mode of virtual human began to be recognized by the primary market , But is that really the case ?


01 Content realization


Virtual human is not human , It's a tool . In a sense , It is a play that uses content to realize .

In the first place , Virtual people are mostly “ Virtual idol ” There is a form of . Ruminglin virtual beauty 、 Hatsune Miku 、 Luo Tianyi et al , They release song albums 、 A concert 、 How to endorse the brand , A large number of secondary fans . Although the appearance is a lovely girl image , But ontology is actually sound source library software : Recording human voices , The song is like a real person .

It means , Users only need to input the tracks and lyrics into the software , You can finish the work , Compared with traditional music production , Create in this way 、 The threshold for publishing peer works is much lower . Sasaki ( Father of the future ) Once said ,“ As long as it is created by users, it belongs to them .” Everyone can interpret it 、 Create your own “ Hatsune Miku ”.

The evolution of mass media , Make virtual idols civilian . In this context , Fans become the creators of virtual idols 、 Admirers 、 Breeders , At the same time, they have become their common supporters . Highly participatory , Let the works of virtual people no longer be limited to official release , IKEA fans have a high enthusiasm for creation : Luo Tianyi's tens of thousands of original songs ,90% The repertoire comes from homemade , There is no lack of among them 《 Power reigns all over the world 》、《 Ordinary Disco》、《 Dara collapse it 》 Wait for the high heat Divine Comedy .

Second innovation with low threshold and high degree of freedom , Virtual human marketers can 0 Cost to obtain high-quality works , From breadth to depth , People's demand for virtual human has gradually evolved into emotional sustenance , This is actually a bit of a meta universe , Real and virtual blend , It brings new ideas to virtual people : Virtual separation , It is considered to be the first ticket to the meta universe .

such as RPG In the game , Players are keen to use the second avatar to replace the character , To enhance the realism of the game . But it is more used in virtual social networking , Different from traditional social platforms , It focuses on immersive experience , Combined with the landing situation , Whether it's Greek soil 、 Super QQ Show 、 Party Island , still Soul and VRchat, Most users use “ Pinch your face ” Customize 3D Virtual image , But it did not span space 、 Social time .

What's unexpected is , In the virtual idol IP On the way to modernization , Its tool properties are becoming more and more obvious . A typical example is , Compared with real people with the same number of fans KOL, fictitious KOL It's now ToC One of the best ways to commercialize : Liu Yexi has tiktok already. 830 More than 10000 fans . And according to cheetah research data ,2016-2020 Market scale of virtual anchor in CAGR by 58.2%, The increase is obvious .

Up to now , Pudong Development Bank 、 Thomson technology 、 Vanke has launched its own digital employees . In the eyes of insiders ,“ Digital people have no feelings , More suitable for Standardization , Especially suitable for scenes with simple interaction .” For example, News Hosts 、 Cultural tourism guide 、 Educate customer service , Virtual human through preset knowledge base , Identify the user's demands and respond with the set script , Among them , Including highly repetitive business processes .


02 Industrial chain disassembly


If the realization method is the skin of a virtual human , that , The industrial chain is the skeleton of virtual people .

as everyone knows , Although the threshold of virtual human track is low , But the main reason is that the technology is difficult , Like traditional enterprises , The face is still a three-step ladder from top to bottom : Base layer 、 Platform layer and application layer .

The basic layer mainly provides the software and hardware support required by virtual human manufacturing , Including display equipment and mobile capture equipment 、 Chip and cloud computing 、 Development of rendering modeling software 、 Content and IP Output, etc . In this respect , The bottom thickness of head comprehensive large factory technology sedimentation , For example, overseas Pixologic and AUTODESK, The former has the right to make 《 Sand dunes 》、《 "Avatar" 》 Of 3D Design software ZBrush, Latter AutoCAD and Maya, Let it in 3D The production and rendering are no less than .

under these circumstances , At home with BAT Internet giants represented by , Most of them adopt differentiated playing methods : Cut into platform layer and application layer , Curve of national salvation .

Robin Li regards technology and AI as Baidu belief. , In terms of virtual human, the action is intensive , With Intelligent Cloud Xi Ling 、 Digital star operation platform and Canxing plan , Set up a platform for virtual people , Immersive virtual space released at the end of last year , It is considered by the outside world to be Baidu C End virtual personification is the key signal of the industry .

by comparison , The virtual human developed by Alibaba is mainly used for e-commerce services , From business oriented AI Virtual model Taji , To users' virtual image of Taobao life , Then to tmall's digital virtual spokesperson AYAYI, These indigenous virtual people rooted in E-commerce , It is regarded as a sharp tool for operation by Alibaba .

Different from the first two , Tencent and Netease prefer to plant trees in the game ecosystem .

Goose factory's game IP, It provides a lot of materials for virtual human production , We have launched QQ Dazzle dance star pupil 、KDA women's team event . besides ,NExTStudios China Photographic Modeling Laboratory 、 Face production pipeline and animation generation pipeline based on optical technology , It is very similar to a virtual human production factory . Netease has found another way , The protagonist Fu Xiwei B End users provide solutions for virtual human landing in multiple scenes , Fuxi's Yaotai is also known as the first immersive activity system in China .

And finally B standing 、 Shake up the head players of such video streams , Because the natural genes of vector properties , Their application layout direction is mainly virtual idol and virtual KOL Mainly . Relevant data display ,2021 year ,B There are... On the station 32412 A virtual anchor , Subscriptions and rewards for virtual idols increased year-on-year 350%, Kwai Tai , its A Station surface capture assistant and Biyang special effect platform , Give Way UGC The threshold of content production and creation was further reduced .


03 Invisible noise


One caveat , When the market is immersed in virtual human carnival , It also means that the concept is bubbling. .

all the time , game 、VR/AR、 Virtual human 、 Social networking is considered to be the four major tracks of the metauniverse , Players keep coming , There are not a few people who were killed on the beach by big waves . Chased by capital last year “ The first strand of the meta universe ”Roblox, It has been on the market for nearly a year , But according to its 2021 The fourth quarter results of , Expanding losses and falling share prices , Make people more willing to believe that this is just VC A new scam .

There is a view that , At present, there are few serious products in the market , Everyone is chasing the tuyere , Because it's better to finance , Take up the air outlet first , It's possible to make it bigger later , It has become a common problem in the industry , For this reason, the voice of singing bad virtual personification can be heard all the time , One side of the ice CEO Li Di is worrying about the productivity of virtual human , On the other hand, the audience is also wondering whether the virtual human really needs mass production , The two sides went to the opposite .

Just as people thought that robots would rule the earth many years ago , For the hot virtual human , Conspiracy theories about it are also spreading , Compared with real people , It is difficult to distinguish the true from the false appearance and sound line , The effect of horror Valley always stimulates people's sensitive nerve about life and death , What is revealed behind this is the prejudice against science fiction , There is also distrust of technology .

Relevant surveys show that , Willing to spend 500 The population above yuan only accounts for 6.3%, Compared with the booming virtual human industry , External cooling and internal heat have become a spectacle . Some insiders said ,“ Most virtual human production companies have no hematopoietic function ,IP Still bleeding , If the virtual human can't get investment on this track ,90% Will die .”

It's also a key issue .

When people envy the commercial value brought by virtual idols and anchors ,B More than half of the virtual anchors in the station 0 income , It also shows that survivors are a kind of deviation . For the top virtual human hatched temporarily , Tens of millions of production costs for an event , Also in high investment 、 High maintenance costs , A big bet in the face of uncertainty . People who look after it , Think it's the next future , But what will the future be , Not yet known .

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