Encryption market investment survival law: please take back your attention and make prepared decisions

0xRusowsky 2022-04-04 23:20:10 阅读数:41

encryption market investment survival law

writing :0xRusowsky

compile :Amber,ForesightNews

In this fast-paced world of information and data change , Everyone is fighting for your attention . You are often drowned in vast amounts of information . And it's easy to get addicted to twitter , And mistakenly believe CT The information on can bring you wealth and success .

This view will force you to constantly refresh the page , Intended to be shared by others 「 a move 」 news . actually , This will only lead you to despair , Because there is hardly any alpha in this noisy environment , And when your brain is filled with information , And finally can't effectively distinguish between real alpha and spam , You will be abandoned by the market .

Before entering the text, we need to emphasize one point , This is not an investment guide or advice , This is just my personal perception and thinking in the process of investment .

A problem you and I often need to face

You often find it easy to blindly believe some voices on social media . You may get caught up in a lot of social media about the rising potential of a new token 「 Brainwashing 」 purchase , And will have great confidence in this token with strong marketing ability 「 Hundredfold 」 The expectations of the , But in fact, the trend of the final token price is often not what you want , You may even become a high point 「 Answer man 」.

Suggest

First of all, you should make it clear , Real alpha is very scarce , The so-called... That can be hyped on social media 「 alpha 」, In fact, there are probably a lot of 「 have an ulterior motive 」.

Of course, I don't deny that for the encryption market , Social media is a very important tool for learning , But you must not rely too much on it , In particular, do not blindly follow . If you make a hasty investment decision just because you read a few articles or read a few posts , In most cases, you will suffer losses .

therefore , Build a suitable investment framework , It's very important .

Invest in a planned way

It must be admitted that , In the process of cryptocurrency investment , I did learn a lot from social media , And it's also very helpful to shape the way individuals see the market today . Some knowledge is easy to obtain , For example, project information or technology related content, etc , Especially when some people hold tokens for some new items , They will naturally take the initiative to 「 Extension 」, This makes a lot of introduction information about the project appear on our social media platform .

However , The story actually has another side . Background information of these market participants . Their financial habits 、 Investment methods and investment strategies, etc , Generally speaking, it is private .

As the public knows , The vast majority of large market participants have experienced multiple cycles of cryptocurrency , And generally have rich experience in traditional financial markets . If you don't have similar accumulation , You should learn to understand these 「 bosses 」 Their mode of thinking , Instead of simply going to a random time node , Copy these people's portfolios .

The reality is that , The behavior pattern of investors you admire is completely different from that of immature you .

You think these people will read a few tweets , Blindly invest money in a project without due diligence ? Whether these people will invest in the so-called possible 「to da moon」 A local dog ? These people are in position management and risk management , Will you do it at will ?

actually , Most can beat the market , And earn astronomical wealth , Have enough professional investment plans and can stick to them .

Another thing worth mentioning , People who come into contact with the encryption market earlier generally get some wealth because of the dividends of the market , But if you don't make a reasonable investment strategy , If you rush through the market just by luck , You and those friends you despise ( They may think the market is just gambling ) There is no essential difference .

in summary , If you want to make your investment in the encryption market wider and wider , Then you need to establish a professional investment strategy , And imitate the behavioral logic of those professionals , Is one of the shortcuts to building an investment framework .

draw up a plan

that , How to be a successful investor ?

 investment

 

step 1: Learn to shield noise

You must learn to take back your own attention .

The first step is to organize your twitter messages . Put together a list of people you care about . Browse all the accounts you follow . Close accounts that don't provide really valuable information . Unless you're a short-term trader , Otherwise, I don't suggest you follow any account that shares market analysis views .

In addition, those projects that you are sure you will not be interested in can also be closed , Human energy is limited , No one can become an expert in all fields .

step 2: collect 「 Insight 」

Build an insightful flow of information , And build it into its own exclusive resource pool .

As far as I'm concerned , I like to collect those posts and articles that look interesting . You can use some tools and classify these high-quality content according to different topics .

Of course , Some alpha does exist in the information shared by others on the Internet . Although building a partnership that is willing to share quality information with you is not easy , But once it works , Can greatly improve your resource integration efficiency .

 investment

My advice is to communicate directly with people through comments or private letters . Become a person who shares alpha . Don't expect anything in return . And this altruism will eventually pay off .

step 3: Study

This step is where miracles happen .

Once you collect and organize information , It's time to deal with it . You need to digest this knowledge .

Master the basic knowledge . To succeed , You need to understand how this industry works . You don't need to be a developer , But you should know the underlying logic behind your investment ( The currency 、PoW、 The etheric fang 、PoS、AMMs、Curve、 Oracle and clearing, etc ).

And learn to do proper due diligence . Once you know the basics , Every time you see a new project , You can have a critical starting point . You will be able to judge whether it is interesting . Then you can try to understand the mechanism of the protocol , Evaluate the token economics of the project , And judge the prospect of the project through the community and team background .

step 4: Establish a suitable investment strategy

You need to determine which stories will succeed in the long run . I like to think of it as a road map , It will give you a sense of direction . Since you believe that some stories will succeed in the future , Make sure these investments match your core narrative .

Everyone's focus will be different , Some people will pay more attention to decentralization , Some people are optimistic about the future of the private track , Of course, you may also trust DeFi Will lead to a larger financial revolution , Or believers in cross chain development prospects , Which field do you prefer , It all depends on your own research and preferences .

You shouldn't expect to establish clear preferences from the beginning , But as long as you keep the right way of thinking , Your judgment will gradually increase , You will also be able to better understand the market .

Maybe your investment strategy is not perfect at first , But this model will be perfected in your continuous learning , As long as you make sure what you do 90% Your investment is consistent with your long-term vision , Then your chances of choosing to fall into the trap of stupid projects will be greatly reduced .

Although this may be the most difficult step , But this is also the most important step . The irony is that , Most people don't spend any time thinking about it at all .

Sit down and think about how you view the market , Find out which tracks you think are more likely to succeed , And what are the reasons for success . If you can think these questions clearly , It's not far from you being able to establish an effective investment strategy .

step 5: perform

This is a very unstable and fast-growing market . Because of that , In the long run , Your investment will continue to grow , But if you invest blindly , Then you are likely to suffer losses , If you want to win the market , Then learn to build a portfolio , In order to control the risk .

I think in the huge amount of information on social media , Few people will discuss this topic . Your subscription stream may be full of all kinds of items , But few people share their risk management strategies . People will give you one that only accounts for their portfolio 2% Your position information , And after reading a few posts , It may be 15% Invest your assets in that project , In this way, there is a huge deviation in the risk you take .

I strongly recommend that you build at least two types of portfolios , For example, aggressive portfolios focused on growth in a bull market , And a conservative portfolio aimed at capital protection in a bear market . Planning these two types of portfolios can effectively control the risk exposure of your personal position .

As long as you are well prepared , So when the market starts to turn , You don't have to wait in despair for recovery , Instead, you can take action to protect your assets more effectively .

Everyone's risk tolerance is different . However , When determining the target portfolio for different scenarios , The type of subject matter is very important , Generally speaking, I will divide cryptocurrencies into the following categories :

Stable currency :USDT as well as USDC etc. . The theoretical risk is the lowest , The currency price will not fluctuate violently , For the widely used stable currency assets , Risk basically exists only in value decoupling , And the probability of this happening is very low .

Mainstream currency : Bitcoin and Ethereum ( There should be no need for 「 etc. 」 This word , At present, there are only two ). Experienced many rounds of baptism of cattle and bears , Assets that have established a very strong market consensus , At present, bitcoin has actually entered the threshold of large categories of assets in the macro financial market , These assets have the strongest ability to survive a long bear market .

Blue chip : Those who have proven to have sufficient influence and value , And now undervalued assets . Such assets are likely to outperform mainstream currencies in the future , Hitting such assets in advance is the significance of constructing investment strategy . But due to the 「 advance 」 It means that the project is still at an early stage , You need to be able to select potential projects that are most likely to be seen by more people in the future in a highly competitive market .

「 Local dog 」: Maybe a hundred times or zero . Such projects need careful adjustment before investment , You need to get as much relevant information as possible , In addition, we should always pay attention to risk control in the investment process .

But here's the thing , As the encryption market is still in its early stage of development, it is changing rapidly , Therefore, we should also maintain flexibility when implementing the established portfolio strategy , The goal of building a portfolio should be to establish a psychological framework that can help you manage risk .

Establish a process list for judging the project :

Before looking at a new project , You can first list a detailed judgment process and carry it out , This will ensure that you don't make irrational judgments because of impulse . Especially when you want to make a medium and long-term investment , Early preparation is even more important .

1. Make sure you have a basic understanding of the project

  • Read the documents on their website ;
  • Focus on the of the project Twitter View its news release history ;
  • The token economy model of the research project . Understand the initial token allocation and unlocking cycle ;

2. Know the founder and core team of the project

3. Join the community and observe and evaluate the community atmosphere

  • Ask questions in the community , Judge whether community members know enough about the project itself ;
  • Listen to the online sharing of the project ;
  • Try to get in touch with the founder ;

4. Looking for competitors on the same track

  • Find the differences and competitive advantages of the project itself ;
  • Take the historical performance and market value of competitive products as a reference , Used to judge growth potential ;

After you've done all this research , You should be able to answer the following questions :

  • Whether there is real market demand for this project ? What problems it can solve or what kind of services it can provide ?
  • Why do people buy this token ? How the agreement will generate revenue ?
  • What is token economics like ? Whether the distribution is fair ?
  • Whether the team is reliable ? Whether the founder pays attention to the trend of the community ? Is the team working on Optimization ?
  • Is the community active ? Whether community members build a real consensus ? Or is it just for speculation ?

Of course , Figuring out the answers to all these questions does not guarantee the success of a project's investment , But it can also reduce your chances of failure .

The first 6 Step : iteration

as time goes on , We will learn something new , Our perception of things will also change . Because of that , You should regularly reassess your perceptions and goals . This is a continuous iterative process . You should constantly challenge yourself .

To make a long story short , I hope everyone should learn to do some professional things , Treat investment like work . The content on social media is really interesting , But remember , You're here to make money , And the capital market is cruel , So don't be fooled by people with ulterior motives , Don't invest blindly with the mentality of gambling .

Make sure every project you invest in matches your judgment , So even if the investment fails , You can at least take this opportunity to re-examine your investment strategy and optimize it , And this is also a harvest .


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