According to Ouyi market , Bitcoin has fallen to the lowest level in a month since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine 3.4 Thousands of dollars , Among them, cryptocurrency fund-raising supported by Ukraine has briefly recovered to 4.3 Around ten thousand dollars , At present, bitcoin is now 4.75 Thousands of dollars . In the near future , Under the pressure of sanctions led by western countries such as the United States and the European Union , Pavel, chairman of the energy committee of the Russian parliament · Zavarni (Pavel Zavalny) Said at a press conference last Thursday , Russia is considering accepting bitcoin as a payment method for its oil and gas exports , Willing to accept bitcoin for its natural resource export . If this policy is successfully implemented, it will be beneficial to the current foreign exchange 、 gold 、 And bitcoin pattern , Ouyi Research Institute will analyze from a macro perspective under the current international environment and situation , What impact will the role of bitcoin payment have on US dollar hegemony .
Severe international sanctions
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine heats up , The United States and EU countries have imposed a series of sanctions on Russia , The targets of sanctions include Russian leaders and civilians , Areas include finance 、 Bank 、 Technology 、 Import and export 、 Journalism 、 Politics 、 music 、 Communications 、 The movie 、 Social media and almost all aspects of life , Russia is also interested in these diplomacy “ unfriendly ” China has imposed anti sanctions , Including a no fly in Russian airspace , Energy export restrictions, etc . Russia is the world's largest energy exporter , Russia's crude oil production is as high as 1100 barrels ( Company :Barrel), Equivalent to... Of the world's total 10%, About... Days a year in Europe 1/3 All natural gas is imported from Russia , Imagine if Russia chooses to cut off the supply of natural gas in Europe , What great impact will it have on the survival of citizens in the extreme environment of winter in northern Europe , therefore , The crude oil and natural gas export agreement has become a favorable condition for Russia to carry out anti sanctions against western countries .
Sanctions have led to fluctuations in commodity prices
The escalation of geopolitical situation , It will substantially further aggravate the risk of imbalance in the commodity market , According to the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) Such risk premium shows , Commodities include crude oil 、 Natural gas 、 gold 、 Wheat 、 Prices such as corn are soaring and have reached 2012 The highest level since . As tensions between Russia and Ukraine rise steadily , The West will also increase sanctions accordingly , JPMorgan expects ,“ Given Russia's far-reaching impact on global commodity markets , Global geopolitical tensions and high risk premiums for all commodities are likely to last for a long time .”
Yahoo Finance Crude oil quotation
In addition to gold and agricultural products , Russia has always been a reliable oil supplier , Even at the height of the cold war, supply was never cut off , Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of Brent crude oil has stood at 100 dollar / bucket , But if the market starts to price changes in the situation , According to Russia's current anti sanctions attitude , If it chooses to interrupt oil supply for a year , Will cause Brent oil prices to rise to the highest 150 dollar / bucket , This is an extremely negative signal , Will cause inflation to soar and push the global economy into recession . The futures price of European natural gas can better reflect the evolving geopolitical risks of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine , JPMorgan Chase put it in 2022 Summer in summer TTF Revised value of benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price 77.50 euro / mega ,TTF The price shows the confidence of investment institutions that natural gas is not able to cope with the interruption of supply in Russia .
Dollar currency control and financial power behind a series of sanctions
The US dollar is the world's foreign exchange reserve currency , The dollar index is the core standard of the global economic situation , Crude oil, natural gas, gold and foreign exchange need to be settled in US dollars , The formation of this hegemonic position stems from 20 century 70 The mid - , Kissinger's first task as US Secretary of state is to guide oil exporting countries to accept US dollar as the only pricing method and settlement currency of international oil transactions , He persuaded OPEC through Saudi Arabia (OPEC: OPEC ) Other Member States , Finally, it has become a world consensus to link the dollar with strong oil . Besides , The US Treasury Department passed “ Privilege ” To print more money to buy oil , The United States exports “ fictitious ” In exchange for oil “ real ” resources , At the same time, other countries in the world need to exchange actual goods and services from the United States for dollars to buy oil , Finally, the US dollar payments through trading and trade with other countries are returned to the US stock market, treasury bonds and other financial assets . Long before the formation of the petrodollar hegemony system , The Bretton Woods monetary system pegged the dollar to gold , With the reduction of U.S. gold reserves , The end of the monetary system , The United States has turned to oil , This is why the United States has formed a financial power for decades , It has supported decades of economic take-off and financial development of the United States “ Eternal bull market ”.
How will the implementation of bitcoin payment affect ?
Once Russia supports bitcoin for energy payment , Global energy payment will be a new pattern . In fact, bitcoin is used in the oil trade , It won't be paid in full bitcoin , Bitcoin involved in settlement should be used as a supplementary currency for other foreign exchange , Therefore, countries that need oil trade with Russia will actively reserve to supplement their currencies . meanwhile , The demand for bitcoin as a new foreign exchange reserve will increase , New demand usually leads to a rise in the price of bitcoin .
Ouyi OKX Bitcoin market
According to official Russian customs data ,2021 The annual oil export volume is 1100 Billion dollars , According to Ouyi quotation, bitcoin cash report 4.8 Thousands of dollars , In theory, if all Russia's oil exports are paid for by bitcoin , Then a total of about 230 Ten thousand bitcoins , This amount accounts for about... Of the bitcoin that has been dug up so far 12.5%, This calculation is to test whether bitcoin can support the extreme situation of high energy import and export payments , In fact, countries with bilateral trade will not use full bitcoin to pay , And the price of bitcoin will gradually pick up and even climb to a new high due to the rising demand , Therefore, using bitcoin for energy payment can reasonably exist .
The way the two countries realize wealth cashing in bilateral trade is not to accumulate dollars or other countries' foreign exchange , Instead, they use high-quality goods and services to exchange , Achieve mutual benefit and win-win results , The role of the US dollar in the trade process is a tool to realize terminal payment , Now the pattern changes , If you choose bitcoin because you choose not to use US dollars for sanctions , Energy demand will not disappear . Choose bitcoin 、 RMB or ruble payment is an alternative that Russia may choose , In the future, countries will reserve bitcoin actively or passively out of trade demand , With the implementation of bitcoin in international trade, more and more people will see it , Coupled with the decentralization and strong consensus attribute of bitcoin itself , soon “ Dollar Hegemony ” The conspiracy theory that bitcoin is a scam may be shattered , Let's wait and see .