Encryption analyst Q2 Industry Outlook: metauniverse will be the mainstream in the future, and the funds will be allocated to games and defi blue chips

Raymond Chng 2022-04-04 09:29:54 阅读数:190

encryption analyst q2 industry outlook

writing :Raymond Chng

compile :TechFlow intern

Macroscopic

The Russian Ukrainian war has made headlines in the past few weeks , This incident triggered TradFi A large number of portfolio changes of investors , And brought a partial bottom to the cryptocurrency market . But I believe the war may soon subside .

The Fed raised interest rates in an environment of inflation and slowing growth , It may lead to some bad events later this year . We were the first 2022 Third quarter of 2007 , It will change from inflation to stagflation .

What does this mean to the world ?-> This means a chronic death , This is bad for most people who are not ready .

If digital assets are to be associated with TradFi Market decoupling , Now will be a good time .

The world is now in chaos , Besides , There are not enough pensions around the world , Plus stagflation , This is the root of the disaster . Policymakers will need to consider how to manage this problem . If things don't go well , Will they :1) Let the ship sink -- Let the economy go deep into recession -- Everyone will be unhappy ; perhaps 2) Continue printing money -- Give money to people , Let everything swell , Let people die slowly when their purchasing power gradually decreases .

Maybe a parallel world can become Noah's Ark ? Let the world bleed and die slowly → Into the meta universe → fictitious / The yuan universe economy will eventually surpass the real world economy .

Cryptocurrency market

There are always large TradFi The fund entered the field of cryptocurrency , These funds are investing in the infrastructure layer of this field , for example , Temasek ( Singapore government affiliated funds ) To invest in IMX.

More and more funds focus on games and metauniverse .

The valuation of venture capital round is very high , For some funds , Buy liquid tokens ( Those tokens that are already on the market ) Maybe better , Because some of them are close to or even lower than the seed valuation . As a retail investor , This is good news for me , Because I have the opportunity to buy reliable projects at a cheap price , If I do research .

A fragmented market -- Some tokens are in a bear market , Others are in a bull market , The key is to identify this and trade accordingly

The season of full correction -- Most currencies rise first and then fall , Almost no currency has trended in any direction in the past few weeks

Old currency (EOS、WAVES、TRX) Make a comeback with the release of the news , This shows how the market creates a hot topic , But the full correction season also shows how PVP.

obviously , The current market conditions are most suitable for quantification / Shock traders , Not trend traders . I hope this situation will change in the second quarter -- Will share my thoughts on how to manage this situation . But I will focus on " May " The situation of .

The second quarter is expected to be a better quarter , For most sectors of the cryptocurrency market , There may be risks , Believe that the market has and will continue to allocate funds to :1. game  2. Blue chip DeFi The coin

Bitcoin

BTC As TradFi Our collateral began , It may be that BTC The beginning of monetization into bond like assets , After all, it's worth about... In Europe alone 5T(2022 year 2 month ) Negative yield bonds .BTC The market value of is still lower than 1T dollar (2022 year 3 month ).

Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) Triggered the current small bull market , And maybe in the future 2-3 Trend within months . I think the current price trend (pa) It is by people to LFG It is caused by the pre operation of buying .

There are also other market participants who buy in anticipation of stagflation , purchase " The hardest money "

Interestingly , stay Ray Dalio Say he is 2021 Have some BTC after , lately Bridgewaters Mention that they will enter cryptocurrency , As you know , They're not the only ones looking for cryptocurrency risk , I believe they will also start to configure BTC.

ETH

The key is to merge , Although most market participants are optimistic about this event , But I'm not sure how it really ends , somehow , When most people ( flock of sheep ) Think when things happen , It will go to the other side .

Due to strong liquidity ,ETH It is still one of the ways for institutional funds to access cryptocurrencies . In the long run , This is a good asset , Can hold the market Beta risk , But if you want to beat the market as a retail investor , Maybe it's best not to participate in ETH.

Most and ETH Related activities may take place in the future L2 On . 

Eth L2

Starknet

  • The latest round of financing makes Starkware The valuation of 60 Billion dollars , Led by Sequoia ,Paradigm、3AC and Alameda And so on .
  • Starknet There are a lot of developer activities on , A vibrant community , Consistent ecological renewal .
  • There may be powerful DeFi infrastructure ,MakerDAO And other blue chips DeFi Will be ready at Starknet Push on .
  • The game ecology will also be strong , stay Starknet Game extensions on are under construction , Yes Loot Realms. also Matchbox DAO, Its goal is to become a game developer 、 The designer is waiting Starknet The center of the .

Arbitrum

  • When Airdrop( There is a rumor that this is 2022 year ).
  • Interestingly Arb Upper NFT The market is more flexible than all others .
  • Magic  The ecosystem props up the chain NFT market , Ownership includes Seed of Life,Battlefly And more physical games , I think we'll see new money coming into the ecosystem .
  • image Dopex and Vesta And other derivative tokens may continue to remain sticky on the chain TVL.

 

L1(Sol/Luna/Avax)

1.Solana

  • stay Solana Push on Opensea May open their NFT And the game season
  • game :Aurory Probably the most anticipated game to be launched soon .Star atlas  It's also highly anticipated , But it may take some time . One game I might be watching closely is Meekolony, It may be in 2022 Launched in the second quarter of 2013 TGE.

2.Luna

  • After observing the performance of ecosystem currency , I decided to stick to buying Luna And will UST Anchoring  
  • UST The ultimate goal is > USDT,Do Kwon And the team are building a complete ecosystem , With increasing interest in UST The needs of .
  • The game project is coming Terra ecology
  • Defi / FX Hope to help promote UST growth , Thus increasing combustion . 
  • May soon break through ATH And on the rise

3.Avax

  • The subnet goes online → Cheaper transactions and more scalability
  • Game:Defi Kingdoms (Jewel) and Crabada (Cra) Will soon launch their subnet . Even though Crabada Of Swimmer  There are some delays in the network , But in the end .Avax It is becoming the top industrial chain of game developers , I am very happy to follow their journey .
  • DeFi:Avax Most of them Defi Tokens have fallen from an all-time high 70-85%. I think this is a good place to focus on these tokens , because Avax Summer The coming .

 

DEFI

1.Badger The ecological system

  • Badger DAO It's a DAO, So that bitcoin can be used as DeFi Applied collateral .
  • TLDR; It gives you BTC Bring benefits
  • About Badger Hacking has been sorted out , I Believe Badger It will be possible for BTC The holder provides an important infrastructure , Monetize their coins .

2.CitadelDao

  • Citadel It's a treasury DAO, Designed to be the world's largest owner BTC Our community .
  • Citadel Will grow into the bitcoin whale of the people , The purpose is to support the creation of bitcoin focused products , not only DeFi, There is also a serious shortage of funds for the core development of bitcoin .
  • To ensure that it can generate sustainable returns on its bitcoin position , It will not only hold bitcoin , And hold the whole DeFi Earnings affect assets ( Such as Convex and BADGER).

3.Tetra round table

a.Convex Finance

  • Everyone knows what the story is , Basically CVX Control most of their cooperation CRV、FXS And other tokens .CRV War has become CVX The war .
  • Curve v2 Soon to launch - Will be for CVX Holders bring huge returns .
  • Still DeFi One of the key items of the portfolio .

b.Dopex

  • rDPX New token economics
  • ve-DPX
  • c.Frax Finance
  • FPI Airdrop
  • FraxSwap
  • As I mentioned in the first quarter Outlook ,Frax Maybe the top stable currency ,FPI It's cryptocurrency CPI, and Sam Kazemian It is an indicator of our belief in a brighter future of the meta universe .
  • Maybe a few can be stored in a wallet and in hold 5 The price will come back in two years DeFi One of the tokens , But it's still hyping .

d.FeiRari 

  • Fast code update
  • new xTRIBE Allow users to Fuse Direct emissions from lending platforms FEI or FEI LP Tokens, . All rewards are automatically compounded .
  • Maybe it's another one you can hold and come back with Ferrari in ten years DeFi Tokens, .NFA.

e.Redacted Cartel

  • all DeFi The influencer of the vote .
  • Behind the scenes ( Check their documents )
  • It may be that retail investors buy tokens as ETF One way , because Redacted It has a wide range of influence .
  • I bought... At the auction BTRFLY And sold about 3,000 dollar . I intend to add it back to my portfolio in the near future .

 

AVAX DEFI

1.BenQi

  • Current pledge - sAVAX
  • The object of the anchor
  • DeFi Kingdoms partners
  • Still AVAX Native lending platform

2.Joe

  • The new token economics makes the agreement a launching pad .
  • sJOE、rJOE and veJOE It means that when demand picks up, the buying pressure will be higher
  • In the past few months, funds have been flowing out DeFi Under the circumstances , The team continues to build
  • It may be a good time to re-examine . At the nearest low ,JOE near VC The price of the financing round , So as long as you believe VC Not just invest 2 times , There is still a lot of room for prices to go up .

3.GMX

  • If you don't understand GMX, Please check out Blocmates Of GMX Complete Guide .
  • It's a Perp agreement , A lot of people are using it , Whether it's a bull market or a bear market , It's still a good currency .

 

Follow others in the list DeFi project

1. Aave v3  Cross link , The price has gone up , And you may see OG DeFi The agreement made a comeback after large-scale transformation .

2. A new decentralized foreign exchange agreement , Have a strong and mature team , Strong investors 、 A reliable road map 、ve- Token Economics 、 forthcoming GLP Token Economics 、MKR Vault type products 、 Monetize real-world assets 、Fiat on/off ramps Partner ranking , The team ensures that they focus on agreed profits rather than purely TVL Growing DEFI agreement .

 

Web3 Gaming Summer

Ideas about the game board

  • 2022 year 1 month , I decided to turn to GameFi, Because I think the future of the metauniverse will need some reliable games that people want to spend a lot of time playing . So I decided to go deep into the game field . I wrote more about this in my twitter , So you can see more about my point of view .
  • Jason Choi mention ,GameFi It feels like 2020 Year of DeFi, This means that we are about to enter GameFi bull market , We're still early .
  • Wangarian Mention the next 100 Times the potential is in GameFi in , I tend to believe him , In fact, this is what I have been discussing with my partners .

Game guild transformation

  • Recently, a guild sold all their Pegaxy assets , Leading to scholars not working , And recently Slp There is a change , Guilds that focus only on the scholarship model may not survive for a long time . 
  • therefore , Guilds need to re-examine what their main role is , I wrote an article about what the guild can get involved in 12 Posts in three fields , I believe some guilds may develop in this direction . 
  • I believe some guilds will turn to game centers or studios as their main mode .Merit circle From cooperation / Invest in the selected game to start , I Believe GuildFi Will also switch to this mode , I hear they are developing , There will be announcements in the future to share their plans . 

Interesting games

  • Game ecosystem - Treasure DAO (MAGIC)
  • MMORPG - Ragnarok / Treeverse / Meekolony / Ember Sword 
  • RPG - Encryption strategy (RAIDER)
  • FPS - AFAR / Blast Royal

 

Meta universe

  • BAYC The upcoming sale of metacosmic land may trigger the next metacosmic bull market
  • at present ,The Sandbox (SAND) Still the most interesting project , And is the leader of the most successful virtual world project
  • NFT Worlds (WRLD) It is definitely a project worthy of attention , utilize Minecraft Design , Developers can easily build virtual worlds , Various NFT The project has been buying land and developing it into its own metauniverse ( namely Floki Verse)—— Where? NFT Worlds It seems to have great potential , And will write an in-depth discussion about it in the future .
  • just as Jason Choi Pointed out , image The Sandbox In this way, the winning meta universe bottom project will become the main winner in this field , It's kind of like L1 Fat agreement .

 

2022 Portfolio allocation in the second quarter of

General idea —— I think what happens in the market will naturally be expressed in my portfolio allocation , therefore ......

1. What are the possible benefits of a long-term bear market ?

  • The bear market is unlikely to prolong , Because the people I talked to were TradFi instis People at work have been telling me that they are preparing to configure cryptocurrency , Purchasing power will come soon .
  • The market is maturing , Market participants know BTC/ETH/Crypto Will continue to exist , We may only have frequent corrections .
  • If a bear market does happen , I'm going to mainly enter the stable currency , Only market transactions .

2. Which market segments are not discussed now , And in the next few months / It will be more popular in a year ?( This is the question I often ask myself ) 

  • I think the meta universe will be the mainstream in the next few years , But not many people talk about the meta universe . Maybe this will be a space worthy of attention . 
  • I do know Facebook(Meta) Support Realy, And one called MONA Independence Web 3 The agreement was ignored .

3. Offensive or defensive ?

  • defensive , And look for powerful currencies

4. Based on the above problems , How will I better manage my risks ?

  • Tend to be more liquid , At the same time, stick to the good R/R game .

 

My portfolio (NFA)

1.(30%) game  

Crypto Raiders(RAIDER)

  • I wrote my opinion on this project recently , however Cut a long story short ;Raider The team has a long-term vision , Give up short-term profitability for the long-term sustainability of the game .
  • This is a game that even some game designers are playing

TreasureDAO (MAGIC)

  • One of the most dynamic communities there
  • Treasure DAO Building a decentralized Nintendo , Their games can be combined with each other , game A Items in the game can be in the game B Use in .

Other games

There are other games , I'm currently getting a white list and / Or start buying their games NFT, When I get more information , Will share in the future .

2.(20%) Productive assets

Benqi(QI)

  • For the reasons mentioned earlier in the article

Convex Finance ($CVX)

  • stay Be4 Tetra Round tables and CitadelDao Accumulate more CVX

Badger DAO (BADGER)

  • Have an initial position , I will increase my position in the future .

3.(40%) Stable currency / Mainstream currency or L1 / Coin-Perps

  • Due to the current market situation , A market with scattered funds , I find it hard to buy and hold , It's more like a trader's market .
  • My strategy has shifted from holding productive assets to trading more , do T Good , Band trading is also good , Basically anything that can keep my portfolio liquid but also take advantage of market trends .
  • This part of the portfolio will be where I spend the most time , From stabilizing money to holding Avax/Luna Or trading market

4.(10%) Alpha Speculation

  • There is always such a configuration , It may take more than 6 Items with a very low market value with a holding period of three months , In fact, it's the kind of project that is heavy and easy to forget , At present, part of this combination is what I mentioned earlier DeFX The coin .
  • Tokens will not be revealed here at this time , Because they have a small market value and high risk .


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