writing ：Raymond Chng
compile ：TechFlow intern
The Russian Ukrainian war has made headlines in the past few weeks , This incident triggered TradFi A large number of portfolio changes of investors , And brought a partial bottom to the cryptocurrency market . But I believe the war may soon subside .
The Fed raised interest rates in an environment of inflation and slowing growth , It may lead to some bad events later this year . We were the first 2022 Third quarter of 2007 , It will change from inflation to stagflation .
What does this mean to the world ？-> This means a chronic death , This is bad for most people who are not ready .
If digital assets are to be associated with TradFi Market decoupling , Now will be a good time .
The world is now in chaos , Besides , There are not enough pensions around the world , Plus stagflation , This is the root of the disaster . Policymakers will need to consider how to manage this problem . If things don't go well , Will they ：1） Let the ship sink -- Let the economy go deep into recession -- Everyone will be unhappy ; perhaps 2） Continue printing money -- Give money to people , Let everything swell , Let people die slowly when their purchasing power gradually decreases .
Maybe a parallel world can become Noah's Ark ？ Let the world bleed and die slowly → Into the meta universe → fictitious / The yuan universe economy will eventually surpass the real world economy .
There are always large TradFi The fund entered the field of cryptocurrency , These funds are investing in the infrastructure layer of this field , for example , Temasek （ Singapore government affiliated funds ） To invest in IMX.
More and more funds focus on games and metauniverse .
The valuation of venture capital round is very high , For some funds , Buy liquid tokens （ Those tokens that are already on the market ） Maybe better , Because some of them are close to or even lower than the seed valuation . As a retail investor , This is good news for me , Because I have the opportunity to buy reliable projects at a cheap price , If I do research .
A fragmented market -- Some tokens are in a bear market , Others are in a bull market , The key is to identify this and trade accordingly
The season of full correction -- Most currencies rise first and then fall , Almost no currency has trended in any direction in the past few weeks
Old currency （EOS、WAVES、TRX） Make a comeback with the release of the news , This shows how the market creates a hot topic , But the full correction season also shows how PVP.
obviously , The current market conditions are most suitable for quantification / Shock traders , Not trend traders . I hope this situation will change in the second quarter -- Will share my thoughts on how to manage this situation . But I will focus on " May " The situation of .
The second quarter is expected to be a better quarter , For most sectors of the cryptocurrency market , There may be risks , Believe that the market has and will continue to allocate funds to ：1. game 2. Blue chip DeFi The coin
BTC As TradFi Our collateral began , It may be that BTC The beginning of monetization into bond like assets , After all, it's worth about... In Europe alone 5T（2022 year 2 month ） Negative yield bonds .BTC The market value of is still lower than 1T dollar （2022 year 3 month ）.
Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) Triggered the current small bull market , And maybe in the future 2-3 Trend within months . I think the current price trend （pa） It is by people to LFG It is caused by the pre operation of buying .
There are also other market participants who buy in anticipation of stagflation , purchase " The hardest money "
Interestingly , stay Ray Dalio Say he is 2021 Have some BTC after , lately Bridgewaters Mention that they will enter cryptocurrency , As you know , They're not the only ones looking for cryptocurrency risk , I believe they will also start to configure BTC.
The key is to merge , Although most market participants are optimistic about this event , But I'm not sure how it really ends , somehow , When most people （ flock of sheep ） Think when things happen , It will go to the other side .
Due to strong liquidity ,ETH It is still one of the ways for institutional funds to access cryptocurrencies . In the long run , This is a good asset , Can hold the market Beta risk , But if you want to beat the market as a retail investor , Maybe it's best not to participate in ETH.
Most and ETH Related activities may take place in the future L2 On .
- The latest round of financing makes Starkware The valuation of 60 Billion dollars , Led by Sequoia ,Paradigm、3AC and Alameda And so on .
- Starknet There are a lot of developer activities on , A vibrant community , Consistent ecological renewal .
- There may be powerful DeFi infrastructure ,MakerDAO And other blue chips DeFi Will be ready at Starknet Push on .
- The game ecology will also be strong , stay Starknet Game extensions on are under construction , Yes Loot Realms. also Matchbox DAO, Its goal is to become a game developer 、 The designer is waiting Starknet The center of the .
- When Airdrop（ There is a rumor that this is 2022 year ）.
- Interestingly Arb Upper NFT The market is more flexible than all others .
- Magic The ecosystem props up the chain NFT market , Ownership includes Seed of Life,Battlefly And more physical games , I think we'll see new money coming into the ecosystem .
- image Dopex and Vesta And other derivative tokens may continue to remain sticky on the chain TVL.
- stay Solana Push on Opensea May open their NFT And the game season
- game ：Aurory Probably the most anticipated game to be launched soon .Star atlas It's also highly anticipated , But it may take some time . One game I might be watching closely is Meekolony, It may be in 2022 Launched in the second quarter of 2013 TGE.
- After observing the performance of ecosystem currency , I decided to stick to buying Luna And will UST Anchoring
- UST The ultimate goal is > USDT,Do Kwon And the team are building a complete ecosystem , With increasing interest in UST The needs of .
- The game project is coming Terra ecology
- Defi / FX Hope to help promote UST growth , Thus increasing combustion .
- May soon break through ATH And on the rise
- The subnet goes online → Cheaper transactions and more scalability
- Game：Defi Kingdoms (Jewel) and Crabada (Cra) Will soon launch their subnet . Even though Crabada Of Swimmer There are some delays in the network , But in the end .Avax It is becoming the top industrial chain of game developers , I am very happy to follow their journey .
- DeFi：Avax Most of them Defi Tokens have fallen from an all-time high 70-85%. I think this is a good place to focus on these tokens , because Avax Summer The coming .
1.Badger The ecological system
- Badger DAO It's a DAO, So that bitcoin can be used as DeFi Applied collateral .
- TLDR; It gives you BTC Bring benefits
- About Badger Hacking has been sorted out , I Believe Badger It will be possible for BTC The holder provides an important infrastructure , Monetize their coins .
- Citadel It's a treasury DAO, Designed to be the world's largest owner BTC Our community .
- Citadel Will grow into the bitcoin whale of the people , The purpose is to support the creation of bitcoin focused products , not only DeFi, There is also a serious shortage of funds for the core development of bitcoin .
- To ensure that it can generate sustainable returns on its bitcoin position , It will not only hold bitcoin , And hold the whole DeFi Earnings affect assets （ Such as Convex and BADGER）.
3.Tetra round table
- Everyone knows what the story is , Basically CVX Control most of their cooperation CRV、FXS And other tokens .CRV War has become CVX The war .
- Curve v2 Soon to launch - Will be for CVX Holders bring huge returns .
- Still DeFi One of the key items of the portfolio .
- rDPX New token economics
- c.Frax Finance
- FPI Airdrop
- As I mentioned in the first quarter Outlook ,Frax Maybe the top stable currency ,FPI It's cryptocurrency CPI, and Sam Kazemian It is an indicator of our belief in a brighter future of the meta universe .
- Maybe a few can be stored in a wallet and in hold 5 The price will come back in two years DeFi One of the tokens , But it's still hyping .
- Fast code update
- new xTRIBE Allow users to Fuse Direct emissions from lending platforms FEI or FEI LP Tokens, . All rewards are automatically compounded .
- Maybe it's another one you can hold and come back with Ferrari in ten years DeFi Tokens, .NFA.
- all DeFi The influencer of the vote .
- Behind the scenes （ Check their documents ）
- It may be that retail investors buy tokens as ETF One way , because Redacted It has a wide range of influence .
- I bought... At the auction BTRFLY And sold about 3,000 dollar . I intend to add it back to my portfolio in the near future .
- Current pledge - sAVAX
- The object of the anchor
- DeFi Kingdoms partners
- Still AVAX Native lending platform
- The new token economics makes the agreement a launching pad .
- sJOE、rJOE and veJOE It means that when demand picks up, the buying pressure will be higher
- In the past few months, funds have been flowing out DeFi Under the circumstances , The team continues to build
- It may be a good time to re-examine . At the nearest low ,JOE near VC The price of the financing round , So as long as you believe VC Not just invest 2 times , There is still a lot of room for prices to go up .
- If you don't understand GMX, Please check out Blocmates Of GMX Complete Guide .
- It's a Perp agreement , A lot of people are using it , Whether it's a bull market or a bear market , It's still a good currency .
Follow others in the list DeFi project
1. Aave v3 Cross link , The price has gone up , And you may see OG DeFi The agreement made a comeback after large-scale transformation .
2. A new decentralized foreign exchange agreement , Have a strong and mature team , Strong investors 、 A reliable road map 、ve- Token Economics 、 forthcoming GLP Token Economics 、MKR Vault type products 、 Monetize real-world assets 、Fiat on/off ramps Partner ranking , The team ensures that they focus on agreed profits rather than purely TVL Growing DEFI agreement .
Web3 Gaming Summer
Ideas about the game board
- 2022 year 1 month , I decided to turn to GameFi, Because I think the future of the metauniverse will need some reliable games that people want to spend a lot of time playing . So I decided to go deep into the game field . I wrote more about this in my twitter , So you can see more about my point of view .
- Jason Choi mention ,GameFi It feels like 2020 Year of DeFi, This means that we are about to enter GameFi bull market , We're still early .
- Wangarian Mention the next 100 Times the potential is in GameFi in , I tend to believe him , In fact, this is what I have been discussing with my partners .
Game guild transformation
- Recently, a guild sold all their Pegaxy assets , Leading to scholars not working , And recently Slp There is a change , Guilds that focus only on the scholarship model may not survive for a long time .
- therefore , Guilds need to re-examine what their main role is , I wrote an article about what the guild can get involved in 12 Posts in three fields , I believe some guilds may develop in this direction .
- I believe some guilds will turn to game centers or studios as their main mode .Merit circle From cooperation / Invest in the selected game to start , I Believe GuildFi Will also switch to this mode , I hear they are developing , There will be announcements in the future to share their plans .
- Game ecosystem - Treasure DAO (MAGIC)
- MMORPG - Ragnarok / Treeverse / Meekolony / Ember Sword
- RPG - Encryption strategy (RAIDER)
- FPS - AFAR / Blast Royal
- BAYC The upcoming sale of metacosmic land may trigger the next metacosmic bull market
- at present ,The Sandbox (SAND) Still the most interesting project , And is the leader of the most successful virtual world project
- NFT Worlds (WRLD) It is definitely a project worthy of attention , utilize Minecraft Design , Developers can easily build virtual worlds , Various NFT The project has been buying land and developing it into its own metauniverse （ namely Floki Verse）—— Where? NFT Worlds It seems to have great potential , And will write an in-depth discussion about it in the future .
- just as Jason Choi Pointed out , image The Sandbox In this way, the winning meta universe bottom project will become the main winner in this field , It's kind of like L1 Fat agreement .
2022 Portfolio allocation in the second quarter of
General idea —— I think what happens in the market will naturally be expressed in my portfolio allocation , therefore ......
1. What are the possible benefits of a long-term bear market ？
- The bear market is unlikely to prolong , Because the people I talked to were TradFi instis People at work have been telling me that they are preparing to configure cryptocurrency , Purchasing power will come soon .
- The market is maturing , Market participants know BTC/ETH/Crypto Will continue to exist , We may only have frequent corrections .
- If a bear market does happen , I'm going to mainly enter the stable currency , Only market transactions .
2. Which market segments are not discussed now , And in the next few months / It will be more popular in a year ？（ This is the question I often ask myself ）
- I think the meta universe will be the mainstream in the next few years , But not many people talk about the meta universe . Maybe this will be a space worthy of attention .
- I do know Facebook（Meta） Support Realy, And one called MONA Independence Web 3 The agreement was ignored .
3. Offensive or defensive ？
- defensive , And look for powerful currencies
4. Based on the above problems , How will I better manage my risks ？
- Tend to be more liquid , At the same time, stick to the good R/R game .
My portfolio （NFA）
- I wrote my opinion on this project recently , however Cut a long story short ;Raider The team has a long-term vision , Give up short-term profitability for the long-term sustainability of the game .
- This is a game that even some game designers are playing
- One of the most dynamic communities there
- Treasure DAO Building a decentralized Nintendo , Their games can be combined with each other , game A Items in the game can be in the game B Use in .
There are other games , I'm currently getting a white list and / Or start buying their games NFT, When I get more information , Will share in the future .
2.(20%) Productive assets
- For the reasons mentioned earlier in the article
Convex Finance ($CVX)
- stay Be4 Tetra Round tables and CitadelDao Accumulate more CVX
Badger DAO (BADGER)
- Have an initial position , I will increase my position in the future .
3.(40%) Stable currency / Mainstream currency or L1 / Coin-Perps
- Due to the current market situation , A market with scattered funds , I find it hard to buy and hold , It's more like a trader's market .
- My strategy has shifted from holding productive assets to trading more , do T Good , Band trading is also good , Basically anything that can keep my portfolio liquid but also take advantage of market trends .
- This part of the portfolio will be where I spend the most time , From stabilizing money to holding Avax/Luna Or trading market
4.（10%) Alpha Speculation
- There is always such a configuration , It may take more than 6 Items with a very low market value with a holding period of three months , In fact, it's the kind of project that is heavy and easy to forget , At present, part of this combination is what I mentioned earlier DeFX The coin .
- Tokens will not be revealed here at this time , Because they have a small market value and high risk .