NFTGo 2022-04-03 19:37:57 阅读数:297
In many cases , People are willing to pay a premium for rare or unique items . The old saying goes , Rare things are precious , But in NFT In the world of , How can we quantify the rarity of this digital asset and its equivalent value ？
From a purely commercial point of view , Many assets do not need any form of restricted supply , But the value of rarity will affect the sum of consumer demand and market demand , Artificial design of rarity and quantity will produce different effects . Rare value is economically rooted in such a concept ： Limited resources , Unlimited demand , And price is a signal that resources are scarce .
Blue chip NFT The rare value of can be measured from the following four points , One is NFT The scarcity of the project itself —— Every Collection Issue a specific number , Mostly 1 m .
The second is related to other items in the total collection NFT Compared to the rare value . Rarity and ostentation “ A sense of exclusivity ” The concept of consumption is closely related ——NFT The similarity between the viewer and the aesthetic owner , In some cases, it also represents the emotional value of an attitude and identity . For example, Jay Chou holds Azuki Homogeneity with its own characteristics .
The third is NFT The use value brought by the scarcity effect of , Or a premium , Including buying and selling NFT The pleasure of , In a new field GameFi And a variety of applications and extensions in the metauniverse .
The fourth is to obtain difficulty or time value . Scarcity value also reflects the cost of community maintenance . For example, some communities PASS The increase of operation and maintenance cost will be reflected in the price , Form a closed-loop flywheel .
that , Whether rarity is the dominant influencing factor of price ？ from 1 Since the month , Although in the market NFT The overall trading volume of has declined , However, the price of blue chip projects under the early market consensus is still rising due to their scarcity , Reflects consumers' positive expectations for top assets .
We can quantify through data NFT The intrinsic correlation between price and rarity , So as to explore possible laws and patterns . We selected six blue chip projects with their own characteristics , assessment NFT The impact of rarity on its price .
rare NFT The holder of has more pricing power than ordinary NFT The holder is higher than 10 times .
And people's general cognition “ rare NFT More expensive ” contrary , The effect of rarity on price is not completely positively correlated .
The influence of rarity sometimes gives aesthetic value 、 Community consensus and other factors that are more hidden than rarity .
Even if Medium NFT In the market Bottom NFT Rarer , However, the market price stratification effect of the two is not obvious . and Top NFT Is far more valuable than Medium NFT.
List 6 Of the projects ,Doodles Rarity has the strongest correlation with price , and BAYC Obviously, there are other variables that affect prices .
Note: Depending on the rarity , We put NFT Divided into four groups ,x Express NFT The rarity of ：
90 ≤ x ≤ 100: Legendary
70 ≤ x < 90: Rare
40 ≤ x < 70: Classic
0 ≤ x < 40: Normal
The highest price NFT, Is it the one with the highest rarity ？
Different NFT The price of is affected by rarity , The figure below shows the top ten selling prices in each collection NFT The rarity of , And its total circulation time in the secondary market .
Each blue chip Collection The top ten in the middle price NFT Rarity distribution of , source ：NFTGo.io
In most scenes , Many people will find rarity through various tools . However , In addition to collection value ,NFT Other values of will largely dilute the impact of rarity on prices . The influence of rarity sometimes gives aesthetic value 、 Other more hidden factors such as community consensus .
CryptoPunks Our market positioning is more inclined to OG NFT project , As the first NFT The collection value of the project is self-evident , Rarity is undoubtedly an extremely important flavor enhancer in the collection experience . And for BAYC for , Although it is also a very classic 、 Earlier blue chips NFT, But the community and business system behind its project support NFT Some other value of , Thus dispersing the influence of rarity on its price . Top ten selling prices NFT The proportion of legendary rarity relative to CryptoPunks There has been a significant reduction .
therefore , From the perspective of different project positioning factors , The highest price NFT Not necessarily the rarest .
Whether rarity affects price stratification ？
By comparing two kinds of NFT The data of —— The most common Normal And the rarest Legendary（ They are after 40% And before 10%）, We can see that rarity has different influence on different collections . Yes PFP project , On the whole , The higher the rarity , The higher the price is. , Have 1/1 top trait Of NFT Often have a higher price .
As we can see from the picture below , stay Cryptopunks and Doodles In the project , The great difference in rarity makes NFT The surge in average prices . And yes BAYC Come on , obviously , Rarity has no obvious price stratification , Rarity does not represent and reflect NFT Its core value .
Ranking based on rarity NFT Average selling price （ In dollars ）; source ：NFTGo.io
Head and long tail effects
After comparing the price stratification gap between the highest and lowest rarity , There is also a problem that users often encounter , If you can't afford it 10% The high price of rarity NFT, Then 90% In the rarity interval of NFT, How to choose ？ Before we remove 10% High rarity NFT, At a relatively low rarity NFT Further analysis in .
By collecting the current rarity ranking in 2000 to 4000 Of NFT As a data set （ As a Medium NFT）, And compare it with the ranking 4000 Outside of the NFT Compare prices （ As a Bottom NFT）. A lot of people think ,Medium NFT Than Bottom NFT Contains more rare NFT, Obviously, its price should also be higher , Is this really the result ？ The figure below shows two categories NFT The average price of （ dollar ）
Different rarity ranking NFT The average price of （ dollar ）; source ：NFTGo.io
We can see , Those with high rarity ranking NFT With the lower ranking NFT There is a clear dividing line between . In order to study the role of high rarity , We set the rarity as Legendary Of NFT Join in , Select the ranking in 2 Within a thousand NFT（ be called Top NFT）, The following figure shows each group NFT Average price of （ dollar ）：
It's not hard to see , Even if Medium NFT In the market Bottom NFT You're in a higher position , However, the market price stratification effect of the two is not obvious . On the other hand , although Medium NFT Relatively rare in the market , but Top NFT The value of is still far more than Medium NFT. obviously , A kind of “ Head effect ” Affect NFT The price of .
There are a variety of trading behaviors in the market , We often hear sweeping the floor 、 There is a collection of heads , collect 1/1 trait, However, the related statement of collecting waist is very rare . Even for some of the rarity and gold related GameFi Play items , Collection and concentration, etc NFT Compared with the other two strategies, it is not very economical .
therefore , Some psychological and economic reasons , The influence of rarity on price has a certain effect on the waist “ Malfunction ”.
Which group NFT Is the most relevant ？
In order to further confirm the correlation between rarity and price , We also chose z-score Standardization, standard deviation and Pearson correlation coefficient （Pearson Correlation Coefficient） Yes Collection The selling price of . On the one hand, it measures the deviation of data from the average of its data set , And evaluate NFT The diversity of collectible prices , To understand how sellers drive the market .
Pearson correlation （Pearson Correlation）
among ,x Indicates the degree of rarity ,y Indicates the latest selling price . Only if each data set is normally distributed , Pearson correlation （Pearson Correlation） It was established. , and NFT The data is not even approximately normal , Usually more non normal . To evaluate the distribution of the two data sets （NFT Rarity and latest price ）, We counted the number of samples from six collections NFT Rarity and price , as follows ：
NFT Rarity and price distribution of collectibles ; source ：NFTGo.io
Pass the above figure , It's not hard to see , Although some collections , for example BAYC, Showing a normal distribution , But in terms of price ,NFT The distribution of collected data is still non normal , This also means that rarity has less impact on prices . When the price data set is non normal , We use it QQ-plot method To check whether the data conforms to the normal distribution . take NFT Compare the price with the normal distribution —— The red line on the graph represents the data that conforms to the normal distribution , Points represent real data .
NFT Price QQ-plot; source ：NFTGo.io
We observed that , Part of the data set is in accordance with the normal distribution , But when we choose the analytical method , All outliers in the collection must be taken into account . Generally speaking ,NFT Prices tend to be non normally distributed , Some studies have confirmed , It is this tendency that leads to the Pearson correlation coefficient （Pearson Correlation Coefficient） There is an error in the estimate of .
The non normal distribution leads to the expansion of the correlation coefficient +0.14, At the same time, we choose a more robust way to verify —— Spearman related （Spearman Correlation） The estimation of rarity and price should be relatively conservative , Here's Spearman related （Spearman Correlation） A simplified formula for .
The result of this formula is a value between -1 To 1 Between the value of the , Indicates that the relationship is completely positive or completely negative , The closer this number is to 0, It means that the more the correlation shows a non negative correlation . Spearman related （Spearman Correlation） There are great changes between different collections , According to the calculation results , The rarity of some collections has little correlation with the price , That is, there are other variables , The rarity of some collections is significantly related to the price . The figure below shows the Pearson correlation （Pearson Correlation） Related to Spearman （Spearman Correlation） Differences in analysis results .
The difference between Pearson correlation and Spearman correlation ; source ：NFTGo.io
The results show that , The error of Spearman algorithm is small , And when using Pearson correlation , Due to the existence of non normal distribution , The estimated results of all collections are too large or too small .
The final statistical results show that , List the research 6 Of the projects ,Doodles Rarity has the strongest correlation with price , and BAYC Obviously, there are other variables that affect prices , Maybe this is BAYC Become the most successful in history NFT One of the reasons for the project , Except for a rare monkey , People also value BAYC Bring other more valuable things .
Is the price defined by community or rarity ？
like Panini NBA Star card , Rare game cards , When there are enough players in a collection, there will be price stratification .NFT So it is with , but NFT Price stratification has not only a single factor of rarity . More may be defined by the community .
such as mfer, such as StartCatchers, There are different Dynamic Traits, The community will define 3 individual dynamic traits >2 individual >1 individual > All still . also ,mfers The value point of the project lies in the cultural consensus behind it ,NFT The image makes many holders seem to see themselves , Resonate .
The influence of rarity on price has been greatly diluted , Instead, there is aesthetic resonance and community consensus . Besides ,NFT Price is also related to the celebrity effect , Some associated with celebrities Trait NFT The selling price will be higher than the average . such as , Many people will choose to buy and Jay Chou hold Azuki identical Trait Of NFT, So as to push up this kind of NFT The price of .
thus it can be seen , In circulation NFT On , The project side also needs to have a lot of ideas . By creating more ways to play, the community means easier publicity and increased circulation ,PFP The playing method contained in the project picture （ Or gimmicks ） One of the things that needs to be considered is . On the other hand , For those who intend to do NFT For the project side of the valuation tool , Need to know NFT Value is determined and influenced by many factors .PFP Through cooperation and meme spread , While expanding their influence , Redefine rarity , Hidden Promotion NFT The price is .
Through the construction of data analysis mechanism , We explored NFT Correlation between rarity and price , Quantitative analysis of NFT Pricing power , Reassess the impact of rarity on prices . meanwhile , We need to pay attention to , Due to different holding time , And the difference in buying time , There are also some deviations and variables under the analysis of price and rarity . Besides , We are based on the circulation time of the secondary market 、 Dynamic factors such as project activities and differences , The characteristics of different collections are further analyzed , Help investors better plan NFT Market investment strategy and income expectation .