Blockbeats 2022-04-03 05:50:09 阅读数:744
Terra It can be said that in the current encryption industry , The most complex public chain of financial architecture design . Its original stable currency UST The distribution and anchoring mode of has also caused many fierce disputes . Let's not discuss this paragraph for the time being Terra Whether it's a Ponzi scheme , But focus on two important interest rates in its ecology ：Luna Of PoS Pledge interest rate and Anchor Of UST Deposit rate .
because Terra The main goal of is not simply to establish a smart contract platform , It's a stable currency UST And promote its adoption . therefore ,Terra Our economic model is also significantly different from other smart contract public chains .Terra Native token of Luna It is not only used to pay the public chain gas Fees and participation in governance , It also needs to be burned Luna Issue stable money UST.
So for Terra Come on , It seems that there are two sets of currency systems naturally in its ecology , The two tokens also have relatively independent interest rate systems . One of them is based on Terra Of PoS Determined by the yield of pledge Luna The interest rate , The other is by Terra Famous deposit application in Anchor Provided UST Stabilize the interest rate of currency deposits .
at present ,Luna The interest rate is about 7%, and UST stay Anchor The deposit interest rate in is as high as 19.4%（ See the picture below ）.
that , Who can represent Terra Ecological risk-free interest rate ？
According to the previous analysis , Secured by a coinage right PoS The yield of pledge can be considered as risk-free . therefore , In the Terra In the middle of PoS Pledged Luna And its yield is obviously more suitable as Terra Risk free interest rate .
Then the next question is , from Anchor Up to 19.4% Of UST Deposit rate , Whether it can also be regarded as a risk-free interest rate ？ Or say ,Anchor The interest rate offered is also secured by the seigniorage , Or from the normal operating profit of the agreement ？ Is there even another possibility , Namely Anchor It's just a Ponzi scheme to borrow the new and return the old ？
Keep paying depositors for a long time 20% Stable currency yield , Even in the encryption industry , It is also obviously unsustainable . that ,Anchor What mechanism can maintain this abnormal income level ？ Answer that question , We first need an appropriate analytical framework .
At present, the mainstream encryption economic system can be basically divided into two categories , One is the agreement to directly control the coinage right of the original currency in the system , And its forged tokens are used as the main means of payment in the economic system , For example, the public chain 、 Chain travel and other economic systems . This kind of economic system involves the issue and recovery of money , Therefore, it is very similar to the national economy in the real world , Therefore, it also needs to use a more complex macro analysis framework .
Another kind of economic system is Anchor or Lido This kind of application , Its basic business model , By absorbing resources outside the system , And manage it to increase its value, so as to obtain profits . This kind of economic system does not have the right to issue and recover the settlement currency in the system , Therefore, it is more similar to the traditional profit oriented company . So if you want to analyze this kind of application , You can directly apply the classical financial analysis framework , That is to describe it through the balance sheet and income statement .
Of course someone would say ,Anchor The agreement also issued its own native tokens ANC, It also has the right to issue money . you 're right , But these tokens will not participate in Anchor The main business , That is to say UST In the asset management business , It will not be used by any economy as a major payment and settlement intermediary . therefore , These tokens are essentially more like corporate stocks that rely on profits or governance to capture value , Not the currency circulating in the virtual economy system .
Put it another way , without ANC Token participation ,Anchor Of UST The deposit and loan business will not be materially affected , It can still continue to run according to the current business logic . therefore ,ANC Not at all Anchor An integral part of the business , It is only used as an external voucher for the system to capture profits or distribute governance rights .
ANC Meaning of existence , More is to discount the future profit expectation of the agreement , And subsidize users in the early cold start stage of the project . This is very similar to the subsidy war in the early Internet industry , It's just that the red envelope issued is changed from cash to company stock .
below , Let's go directly through the traditional income statement , Look at the Anchor The composition of deposit income .
Anchor The biggest and only cost , Is to pay deposit interest to the depositor . Here we have 3 month 31 Take the daily data as an example , at present Anchor in UST The size of the deposit is about 120 Billion UST, Deposit rate 19.4%, therefore Anchor The daily cost is about 640 ten thousand UST.
and Anchor The revenue side of consists of two parts , One of them is Anchor The loan interest charged by lending to others .
From the screenshot above, we can see , from Anchor Loan from UST You need to Anchor The interest rate paid is 12.69%. Of course , The lender will receive ANC Tokens, , Therefore, the actual loan cost is only 4.45%. But these subsidies only reduce the cost of users , Yes Anchor There is no direct impact on the revenue of the agreement . therefore ,Anchor Our daily interest income is still 321 Billion UST*12.69%/365, About equal to 111.8 ten thousand UST.
Anchor Another part of the income comes from loans and hostages being taken to Anchor The collateral in the agreement , That is, liquidity pledge certificate bLuna Income generated during the mortgage period .
We rely on Anchor The data in the dashboard is estimated , It can be concluded that the daily income of the three mortgages is about （48.7 Billion *6.9%+16.8 Billion *4%+0.17 Billion *7.2%）/365, About equal to 110 ten thousand UST.
In addition, it can be seen from these data , As Anchor The main source of income , at present Anchor None of the three types of collateral supported can generate interest rates that exceed 10%. in other words , Even if the size of the collateral increases to twice the size of the total deposit , The income generated can not cover the cost of interest expenditure . therefore ,Anchor Current business structure , No matter what market situation , Can't make a profit on their own .
After the statistics just now , We can finally come to the conclusion that Anchor The daily net operating profit is 111.8 ten thousand +110 ten thousand -640 ten thousand , About equal to -418 ten thousand UST. in other words , at present Anchor Lose every day 400 More than $million to maintain the normal operation of the business .
Then the next question is , Where did the money come from ？ Need to know Anchor Not in itself UST The right of coinage , If seigniorage cannot be levied on the whole system by printing money , Then the only way to make up for the loss is to borrow the new and return the old , And get subsidies from outside the system , And that's the decision Anchor The key link of basic properties .
But fortunately, ,Anchor Choose the latter way , That is to establish a reserve pool through external subsidies , To make up for daily operating losses .
The subsidy reserve pool was established last year , The initial capital is about 7000 ten thousand UST. After this part of the fund has been exhausted ,Terra official （Luna Foundation Guard） Again this year 2 The second round was held in September, with a total of about 5 Billion UST Capital injection . Up to now , The fund balance of this account is only 3.6 Billion dollars . At the current rate of burning money , Probably can only support 3 Months .
therefore , at present Anchor Deposit users receive up to 19.4% In the interest of , It's only about 6.7% originate Anchor Income generated by operating loan business , And the rest 12.7% Revenue , It all comes from Terra The subsidy fund pool established by the Ministry of finance through transfer payment . So for Anchor For savings users , This is one by reducing UST Circulation in exchange for Terra The financial game of financial subsidies .
For the consumption of daily subsidies , Readers can use this Website Monitor it more intuitively .
Finally, let's take a little more time , Give me an answer Anchor Provided by the UST Interest rate and Luna What is the essential difference between interest rates .
In short ,Anchor The interest rate is derived from business profits and subsidies , Much like large central enterprises taking the initiative to bear losses in order to undertake national phased strategic tasks , And maintain the operation through the continuous capital injection of the Ministry of finance . therefore ,Anchor The interest rate essentially belongs to commercial credit plus the invisible guarantee of the Ministry of finance of the public chain . and Luna The rate of return is completely guaranteed by the coinage , Reflect the Terra The sovereign credit of this public chain .（ What is guaranteed by commercial profits is commercial credit , What is secured by the seigniorage is sovereign credit .）
therefore , For the question at the beginning of this article , Now we can give a clear answer , That's it ：Anchor It's not a simple Ponzi scheme , however Anchor The current business model is obviously unsustainable .
Anchor The current model is clearly unsustainable , however Anchor Where will our future go , But it's not Anchor What you can decide . Mentioned above ,Anchor The main significance of existence at this stage , Is to cooperate Terra The team achieves phased strategic objectives .
And this strategic goal , Is in the Terra find UST Before the real main use scenario , do UST The reservoir of . If the follow-up UST The promotion of , be Anchor You can gradually reduce subsidies , Lower deposit rates , Gradually release to the market UST The liquidity of .
And if the UST The promotion of is not smooth enough , be Anchor In order to prevent UST Circulation and Luna The price of tokens has entered the death spiral , We must continue to adopt high subsidies to recover liquidity , And this is also the present Terra Being questioned by many people as the main reason for Ponzi's innovation .
therefore , From the current stage of development ,Terra Obviously, the strategy of exchanging space for time has been adopted to gradually promote UST Application scope of . Have to say , This is a strategic choice with extremely exquisite design and quite bold at the same time . But through Anchor In exchange for a limited time ,Terra Can it be UST Find a really suitable use scenario , Is the test for some time to come Terra The core proposition of the team . And the answer to this key proposition , It will also be finally decided Terra In the end, it will become a great financial innovation , Or another blockchain scam that will eventually collapse .
Although at present, we still dare not easily predict Terra Outcome , But at the moment Anchor The rate at which reserves are consumed , We'll probably wait for the break of this financial game this year .