Blockchain: people cannot perch on the bridge of pure means

User 9624935 2022-04-03 05:13:38 阅读数:754

blockchain people perch bridge pure

《21 Capital of the century 》 The whole book is discussing a core issue : Profit eaters earn more than labor . One class lends excess capital to another , To get a return on investment , This is the basic feature of financial capitalism .

Go back to the origin of money , Interest and debt have been locked up in Biblical quotations and Aristotle's exhortations . Bible 《 poem 》 It says :“ People of God , You can't lend for profit , Nor exploit the innocent . If so , Will be abandoned by God ”. Aristotle's naturalistic view holds that , Money is sterile , Therefore, using money to make money is unnatural , Deserve to be despised .

The same belief 《 The Old Testament 》 But the Jews because 《 Deuteronomy 》 And escaped moral torture :“ Never lend usury to your brothers and sisters , Whether it's money , Food or anything , Neither profit nor rolling profit is desirable …… If you are a stranger, you will , This is desirable ; If it is brotherhood, so , in no event .” This is called “ Deuteronomy double standards ” The creed of , Became the Jews to all over Europe “ Foreigners ” The main legal source of lending , But it has also formed an inexhaustible complex image in history , It has repeatedly become the target of the anti Semitic wave .

Religious reform and capitalism in Europe began, gradually correcting the name of interest and debt . currency 、 Credit and debt have become important cornerstones for the economic development of European countries , Even hegemony ( The war ) Tools for , For example, the British Prime Minister William · Peter ( Little Pete ) Has publicly claimed : “ The vitality and even independence of this nation are based on national debt ”. When the king of England presented the first note to the banker :I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of N Pounds.( I promise to pay the holder on demand N pound ), The modern banking and monetary system based on debt credit has been established , The era of national debt leverage has begun .

In the period of agricultural civilization , Economic activity is limited by seasonal changes , credit / The debt cycle is also consistent with seasonal changes , Money circulates between production and consumption . During the period of industrial capitalism , Price and revenue are linked to their cost value , Investment is to expand reproduction . In the period of financial capitalism , People have been pushing up asset prices by gambling , Banks are the biggest profit eaters , Or buy non-performing assets , Or get capital gains through debt leverage speculation . The expansion of debt based on legal tender has interrupted the flow of production and consumption , Led to economic contraction .

In the period of agricultural civilization , Economic activity is limited by seasonal changes , credit / The debt cycle is also consistent with seasonal changes , Money circulates between production and consumption . During the period of industrial capitalism , Price and revenue are linked to their cost value , Investment is to expand reproduction . In the period of financial capitalism , People have been pushing up asset prices by gambling , Banks are the biggest profit eaters , Or buy non-performing assets , Or get capital gains through debt leverage speculation . The expansion of debt based on legal tender has interrupted the flow of production and consumption , Led to economic contraction .

The bank makes money by the difference between the deposit interest rate and the loan interest rate , Call it spread . in addition , By expanding credit and issuing additional shares in the financial system during the economic boom “ currency ”, And the contraction of credit and money in a recession , This magnifies the impact of booms and busts in the business cycle .

Over the past few years , Global central banks “ Expanded assets and liabilities ”, Cause the stock market 、 There has been massive price inflation in the bond and real estate industries .

Take the United States for example , The mortgage debt of American households is about 8 Trillions of dollars , Car loans exceed 1 Trillions of dollars , Student loans exceed 1 Trillions of dollars , Credit card debt is close to 1 Trillions of dollars . The total debt of us enterprises is 25 Trillions of dollars , Which about 15 Trillion dollars in the financial industry ,10 Trillion dollars in non-financial enterprises .

GDP“ growth ” It's a euphemism for debt . In the United States “ Large decoupling ” For example , With GDP The growth of , The scale of global debt exceeds the scale of repayment . For families ,GDP The growth of has not kept pace with the growth of household income , Personal wages stagnate .

Around the 1986 year , US income and GDP The traditional correlation between growth has been broken , This is known as “ Large decoupling ”. source :《World After Capital》.

Former US economic adviser 、 Michael, an independent economist • Hudson pointed out that ,“ Most of the debt in today's economy is used to buy real estate ( Commercial and private properties ) And financial securities . In the field of industry , Most corporate debt is acquired through leveraged buyouts of smaller or damaged competitors .”

Similar currencies have appeared all over the world / Credit base expansion . On a global scale , Yes 250 Trillion dollars of outstanding debt and four times that amount of unfunded debt , Not to mention a lot of chaotic financial derivatives , Its size is roughly the same as the sum of outstanding debt and unfunded debt .

M1 It's the money supply , Including physical currency , Demand deposits , Traveler's checks , The most liquid part of the money supply .M2 Include M1 All elements of and “ Quasi currency ”, Such as savings deposits 、 Money market securities 、 Mutual funds, etc .

In addition to debt , Since the last century 80 The downward trend of long-term interest rates since the early s , It also marks the beginning of credit driven economic growth to replace real growth . stay 2012 Years and 2016 Global financial crisis (Global Financial Crisis) period , Interest rates have fallen to record lows : Only slightly higher than 1%( Many banks own lower interest rates ).

For decades , The ten-year Treasury bill that has the greatest impact on the bank's short-term interest rate (T-Bill) Interest rates have been in a long-term downward trend .

In the process , Two main problems facing capitalism .

The first is the debt cycle , Manifested as an economic crisis . As with any cycle , credit / The debt cycle will also accelerate with the completion of each loan . And every time you complete a debt cycle , The ability of the central bank to stimulate economic growth through monetary policy will be weakened .

The second is , For centuries , The dual role of money as a means of storing value and a medium of exchange has always been in conflict , Because the working class uses money to buy means of living , The bourgeoisie lent money to workers to get economic rent . This conflict has led to the distortion of government policies , This distortion is concentrated in interest rates . The working class wants interest rates to remain low , To pay their debts ; The bourgeoisie wants interest rates to remain high , To get the best return from their idle capital .

This dual role also makes the currencies of various countries become the plaything of huge speculation ( These speculations have economic and humanitarian consequences every year ). The daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market exceeds 1.3 Trillions of dollars , Dwarf the total market value of global stock markets , And one of 96% The deal is purely speculative . This has led to a notorious for weak currencies “ Soros ” Type attack , Led to several recent credit crises in developing economies from Argentina to Mexico .

that , Can blockchain save capitalism ?

Replace banks

Digital currency brings people a historic opportunity : Decouple the dual mission of money as a store of value and a medium of exchange , And dilute ( If not impossible ) The importance of national legal tender , Then take physical assets and common natural resources ( Minerals 、 Metal 、 air 、 land ) For backing , Create millions of more shaped local and regional currencies .

The source of bank profits is that everyone is chasing a definition of money for all purposes . The main goal of many different types of cryptocurrencies is to replace banks , That is to use an alternative currency to “ Replace banks ”, To replace the debt edifice that our economy has built in the era of credit and legal tender .

This kind of similar currency trying to replace banks has been tried before , But there has never been the power of blockchain .

Decentralized Economy

With digital currency , It can accelerate the development of sharing economy , Eliminate the dependence of borrowers and lenders on banks .Uber and Airbnb Has created the first stage of Decentralized Economy , In the second phase , People can trade in their own way with hundreds of different types of cryptocurrencies , earned income , Exempt from income tax or interest .

Devalue the currency

Local currencies and currencies that depreciate over time sound crazy , In fact, they have a long history . In the Great Depression (Great Depression) period , When American banks run out of money , Local governments and jurisdictions have issued their own alternative currencies , They are widely used in the United States and Europe in the form of tokens .

Devaluation stimulates the circulation and speed of money , Instead of hoarding money , Let people spend without credit or debt . The most famous example of demurrage currency is Worgl, or Freigeld( In German “ Free currency ”), Its value is expressed in monthly 1% It's going down , And stamp it every time you use it . The experiment was inspired by economist Silvio • Gessel (Silvio Gesell) Proposed “ Free economy ”(Freiwirtschaft) Concept , That is, no currency speculation .

In the Great Depression , Devalued currency in the Austrian town of Vogel (Worgl) Popular , go by the name of “ Vogel miracle ”(The miracle of Worgl), Because it pulled the town from the bottom of the economy , Although this is unlikely to continue .

Keynes's dream

Create a ( Decoupled from the value store ) The pursuit of money as a medium of exchange has gone through a long road , Economist John • Maynard • Keynes (John Maynard Keynes) Is one of the earliest advocates . He asserted that , The dual role of money leads to “ The rich ” and “ The poor ” Conflicts of interest between , And blame it on inequality . He doesn't approve of using common currency speculation and interest rate arbitrage , And advocate the implementation of negative interest rates in some cases .

In the last century 40 years , Keynes proposed a method called “Bancor” Supranational global reserve account unit , This is the predecessor of the International Monetary Fund's special drawing right . Although conceptually it is not a currency , Used as a purely speculative unit of international trade —— Individuals cannot hold or trade Bancor. The United States had intended to adopt Bancor, But after World War II and Bretton Woods , The dollar has become the de facto global reserve currency .

Terra Stable currency puts forward a dual token economic model , Its goal is to become the first non speculative global cryptocurrency , Focus on becoming a trading medium , Offset the boom and bust of the business cycle , Stabilize the global economy . most important of all , It will resolve the conflict between short-term financial interests and long-term sustainability ——Terra white paper

Keynes was also proposed Bancor A contemporary version of the style currency . Economist Bernard • Little (Bernard Lietaer) On 2000 Designed in “ International trade reference currency ”(Trade Reference Currency,TRC)Terra, It is a super sovereign supplementary currency , It aims to operate in parallel with the current international monetary system , Without geopolitics and the vagaries of national currency speculation .

Can blockchain realize Keynes's dream ?

Automation will exacerbate long-term deflation , And bring interest rates back to negative values

For the first time in history, the Internet has created the possibility of zero cost marginal production —— That is, goods that can be produced without labor or overhead costs —— This will have a huge deflationary effect on the future world .

Automation and technology are already replacing labor positions , In turn, it will replace consumer demand . Is that possible? ?

Millennial generation

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the millennials' indifference to bank interest rates . Digital currency will weaken the importance of bank interest rates among young depositors , A study shows :67% Of “ Young millennials ”(18 To the age of 24 Between the ages of ) There is not enough money in the savings account 1000 dollar ,46% Your deposit is 0 dollar . Older millennials ( Age 24-35 Between the ages of ) The situation is not much better , among 41% People don't have savings .

Coffee coins —— Microeconomics / Whether autonomous currency is feasible ?

As report goes ,CoffeeCoin Connect professional coffee producers in Indonesia with end buyers , It also provides a coffee trading platform for the whole coffee chain from farm to cup . The value of money can be interpreted as trust in the source of goods in the system .

Unlike food traceability , Give monetary attribute to all things of natural resources , Replace intermediary service providers through microeconomics , But does the world need so much money ?

Corporate community currency —— Do you need so much money ?

Earlier this year , Japanese Listed enterprise groups Kintetsu( Operates a railway connecting major cities and tourist destinations ) Issued its own pilot community currency .Kintetsu Group 400 Multiple locations have adopted Kintetsu The coin , Including a chain of department stores , And in 300 The tallest building in Japan... Meters high ( Osaka Abeno Harukas tower ). The pilot results are very positive , The company will gradually adopt this digital currency . Same question , Do you need so much money ?

All these above , It reveals the potential and possibility of blockchain . How blockchain will reshape our politics 、 economic 、 Social order and environmental structure ? I believe this is a gradual process . The world is changing from overloaded exponential growth to stable growth , Blockchain will play an important role . But blockchain will certainly not speculate on digital assets 、 Exchange traded funds (exchange traded fund) And the first token issue (ICO) The surge of 、 Innovation of trading platform 、 Decentralized exchange (DEX) Or the latest algorithms and strategies to change the world . One possibility is that the blockchain accelerates the capital market out of the market “ Debt ” Time , We have entered an era of slower growth and reduced consumption . Simmel is 《 Monetary Philosophy 》 I mentioned :“ Money is just a bridge to the ultimate value , And man cannot live on a bridge of pure means ”. Again , People can't perch on the leverage of debt economy in the end , Although it can pry the earth .

In the process , I am most concerned about the digital native economy and digital sovereign currency spawned by blockchain . From the perspective of evolution , The attribute of money is constantly evolving due to the rise and fall of the economic system , For example, the rise of gift economy has derived physical currency ; The rise of commodity economy has derived metal money ; The rise of gold power economy has derived metal currency and credit currency ; The rise of sharing economy has derived super sovereign currency . In the present and future of human digital dwelling , Digital native economy and digital sovereign currency will have a lot of imagination .

The history of currency is the history of gradual devaluation

For centuries , The currency has experienced different stages of depreciation . such as :

  • goods : food 、 cattle
  • trust : noble metal 、 gold / silver
  • Fractional-reserve banking : Expand the money supply , Make it more adaptable to supply and demand
  • credit : The current legal tender system that continues through debt and debt service
  • Cryptocurrency : Local or micro money in circular economy

Metal money dilutes cattle 、 Grains and other commodities ; The production of more metals dilutes the metal content ; Worthless legal notes dilute precious metals ; Finally, it will develop into partial reserve system and credit system , These are just digital bits in the computer ; What about blockchain ?

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