writing ：Raymond Chng
compile ：TechFlow intern
Macroscopic
The Russian Ukrainian war has made headlines in the past few weeks , This incident triggered TradFi A large number of portfolio changes of investors , And brought a partial bottom to the cryptocurrency market . But I believe the war may soon subside .
The Fed raised interest rates in an environment of inflation and slowing growth , It may lead to some bad events later this year . We were the first 2022 Third quarter of 2007 , It will change from inflation to stagflation .
What does this mean to the world ？-> This means a chronic death , This is bad for most people who are not ready .
If digital assets are to be associated with TradFi Market decoupling , Now will be a good time .
The world is now in chaos , Besides , There are not enough pensions around the world , Plus stagflation , This is the root of the disaster . Policymakers will need to consider how to manage this problem . If things don't go well , Will they ：1） Let the ship sink -- Let the economy go deep into recession -- Everyone will be unhappy ; perhaps 2） Continue printing money -- Give money to people , Let everything swell , Let people die slowly when their purchasing power gradually decreases .
Maybe a parallel world can become Noah's Ark ？ Let the world bleed and die slowly → Into the meta universe → fictitious / The yuan universe economy will eventually surpass the real world economy .
Cryptocurrency market
There are always large TradFi The fund entered the field of cryptocurrency , These funds are investing in the infrastructure layer of this field , for example , Temasek （ Singapore government affiliated funds ） To invest in IMX.
More and more funds focus on games and metauniverse .
The valuation of venture capital round is very high , For some funds , Buy liquid tokens （ Those tokens that are already on the market ） Maybe better , Because some of them are close to or even lower than the seed valuation . As a retail investor , This is good news for me , Because I have the opportunity to buy reliable projects at a cheap price , If I do research .
A fragmented market -- Some tokens are in a bear market , Others are in a bull market , The key is to identify this and trade accordingly
The season of full correction -- Most currencies rise first and then fall , Almost no currency has trended in any direction in the past few weeks
Old currency （EOS、WAVES、TRX） Make a comeback with the release of the news , This shows how the market creates a hot topic , But the full correction season also shows how PVP.
obviously , The current market conditions are most suitable for quantification / Shock traders , Not trend traders . I hope this situation will change in the second quarter -- Will share my thoughts on how to manage this situation . But I will focus on " May " The situation of .
The second quarter is expected to be a better quarter , For most sectors of the cryptocurrency market , There may be risks , Believe that the market has and will continue to allocate funds to ：1. game 2. Blue chip DeFi The coin
Bitcoin
BTC As TradFi Our collateral began , It may be that BTC The beginning of monetization into bond like assets , After all, it's worth about... In Europe alone 5T（2022 year 2 month ） Negative yield bonds .BTC The market value of is still lower than 1T dollar （2022 year 3 month ）.
Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) Triggered the current small bull market , And maybe in the future 2-3 Trend within months . I think the current price trend （pa） It is by people to LFG It is caused by the pre operation of buying .
There are also other market participants who buy in anticipation of stagflation , purchase " The hardest money "
Interestingly , stay Ray Dalio Say he is 2021 Have some BTC after , lately Bridgewaters Mention that they will enter cryptocurrency , As you know , They're not the only ones looking for cryptocurrency risk , I believe they will also start to configure BTC.
ETH
The key is to merge , Although most market participants are optimistic about this event , But I'm not sure how it really ends , somehow , When most people （ flock of sheep ） Think when things happen , It will go to the other side .
Due to strong liquidity ,ETH It is still one of the ways for institutional funds to access cryptocurrencies . In the long run , This is a good asset , Can hold the market Beta risk , But if you want to beat the market as a retail investor , Maybe it's best not to participate in ETH.
Most and ETH Related activities may take place in the future L2 On .
Eth L2
Starknet
The latest round of financing makes Starkware The valuation of 60 Billion dollars , Led by Sequoia ,Paradigm、3AC and Alameda And so on .
Starknet There are a lot of developer activities on , A vibrant community , Consistent ecological renewal .
There may be powerful DeFi infrastructure ,MakerDAO And other blue chips DeFi Will be ready at Starknet Push on .
The game ecology will also be strong , stay Starknet Game extensions on are under construction , Yes Loot Realms. also Matchbox DAO, Its goal is to become a game developer 、 The designer is waiting Starknet The center of the .
Arbitrum
When Airdrop（ There is a rumor that this is 2022 year ）.
Interestingly Arb Upper NFT The market is more flexible than all others .
Magic The ecosystem props up the chain NFT market , Ownership includes Seed of Life,Battlefly And more physical games , I think we'll see new money coming into the ecosystem .
image Dopex and Vesta And other derivative tokens may continue to remain sticky on the chain TVL.
L1（Sol/Luna/Avax）
1.Solana
stay Solana Push on Opensea May open their NFT And the game season
game ：Aurory Probably the most anticipated game to be launched soon .Star atlas It's also highly anticipated , But it may take some time . One game I might be watching closely is Meekolony, It may be in 2022 Launched in the second quarter of 2013 TGE.
2.Luna
After observing the performance of ecosystem currency , I decided to stick to buying Luna And will UST Anchoring
UST The ultimate goal is > USDT,Do Kwon And the team are building a complete ecosystem , With increasing interest in UST The needs of .
The game project is coming Terra ecology
Defi / FX Hope to help promote UST growth , Thus increasing combustion .
May soon break through ATH And on the rise
3.Avax
The subnet goes online → Cheaper transactions and more scalability
Game：Defi Kingdoms (Jewel) and Crabada (Cra) Will soon launch their subnet . Even though Crabada Of Swimmer There are some delays in the network , But in the end .Avax It is becoming the top industrial chain of game developers , I am very happy to follow their journey .
DeFi：Avax Most of them Defi Tokens have fallen from an all-time high 70-85%. I think this is a good place to focus on these tokens , because Avax Summer The coming .
DEFI
1.Badger The ecological system
Badger DAO It's a DAO, So that bitcoin can be used as DeFi Applied collateral .
TLDR; It gives you BTC Bring benefits
About Badger Hacking has been sorted out , I Believe Badger It will be possible for BTC The holder provides an important infrastructure , Monetize their coins .
2.CitadelDao
Citadel It's a treasury DAO, Designed to be the world's largest owner BTC Our community .
Citadel Will grow into the bitcoin whale of the people , The purpose is to support the creation of bitcoin focused products , not only DeFi, There is also a serious shortage of funds for the core development of bitcoin .
To ensure that it can generate sustainable returns on its bitcoin position , It will not only hold bitcoin , And hold the whole DeFi Earnings affect assets （ Such as Convex and BADGER）.
3.Tetra round table
a.Convex Finance
Everyone knows what the story is , Basically CVX Control most of their cooperation CRV、FXS And other tokens .CRV War has become CVX The war .
Curve v2 Soon to launch - Will be for CVX Holders bring huge returns .
Still DeFi One of the key items of the portfolio .
b.Dopex
rDPX New token economics
ve-DPX
c.Frax Finance
FPI Airdrop
FraxSwap
As I mentioned in the first quarter Outlook ,Frax Maybe the top stable currency ,FPI It's cryptocurrency CPI, and Sam Kazemian It is an indicator of our belief in a brighter future of the meta universe .
Maybe a few can be stored in a wallet and in hold 5 The price will come back in two years DeFi One of the tokens , But it's still hyping .
d.FeiRari
Fast code update
new xTRIBE Allow users to Fuse Direct emissions from lending platforms FEI or FEI LP Tokens, . All rewards are automatically compounded .
Maybe it's another one you can hold and come back with Ferrari in ten years DeFi Tokens, .NFA.
e.Redacted Cartel
all DeFi The influencer of the vote .
Behind the scenes （ Check their documents ）
It may be that retail investors buy tokens as ETF One way , because Redacted It has a wide range of influence .
I bought... At the auction BTRFLY And sold about 3,000 dollar . I intend to add it back to my portfolio in the near future .
AVAX DEFI
1.BenQi
Current pledge - sAVAX
The object of the anchor
DeFi Kingdoms partners
Still AVAX Native lending platform
2.Joe
The new token economics makes the agreement a launching pad .
sJOE、rJOE and veJOE It means that when demand picks up, the buying pressure will be higher
In the past few months, funds have been flowing out DeFi Under the circumstances , The team continues to build
It may be a good time to re-examine . At the nearest low ,JOE near VC The price of the financing round , So as long as you believe VC Not just invest 2 times , There is still a lot of room for prices to go up .
3.GMX
If you don't understand GMX, Please check out Blocmates Of GMX Complete Guide .
It's a Perp agreement , A lot of people are using it , Whether it's a bull market or a bear market , It's still a good currency .
Follow others in the list DeFi project
1. Aave v3 Cross link , The price has gone up , And you may see OG DeFi The agreement made a comeback after large-scale transformation .
2. A new decentralized foreign exchange agreement , Have a strong and mature team , Strong investors 、 A reliable road map 、ve- Token Economics 、 forthcoming GLP Token Economics 、MKR Vault type products 、 Monetize real-world assets 、Fiat on/off ramps Partner ranking , The team ensures that they focus on agreed profits rather than purely TVL Growing DEFI agreement .
Web3 Gaming Summer
Ideas about the game board
2022 year 1 month , I decided to turn to GameFi, Because I think the future of the metauniverse will need some reliable games that people want to spend a lot of time playing . So I decided to go deep into the game field . I wrote more about this in my twitter , So you can see more about my point of view .
Jason Choi mention ,GameFi It feels like 2020 Year of DeFi, This means that we are about to enter GameFi bull market , We're still early .
Wangarian Mention the next 100 Times the potential is in GameFi in , I tend to believe him , In fact, this is what I have been discussing with my partners .
Game guild transformation
Recently, a guild sold all their Pegaxy assets , Leading to scholars not working , And recently Slp There is a change , Guilds that focus only on the scholarship model may not survive for a long time .
therefore , Guilds need to re-examine what their main role is , I wrote an article about what the guild can get involved in 12 Posts in three fields , I believe some guilds may develop in this direction .
I believe some guilds will turn to game centers or studios as their main mode .Merit circle From cooperation / Invest in the selected game to start , I Believe GuildFi Will also switch to this mode , I hear they are developing , There will be announcements in the future to share their plans .
Interesting games
Game ecosystem - Treasure DAO (MAGIC)
MMORPG - Ragnarok / Treeverse / Meekolony / Ember Sword
RPG - Encryption strategy (RAIDER)
FPS - AFAR / Blast Royal
Meta universe
BAYC The upcoming sale of metacosmic land may trigger the next metacosmic bull market
at present ,The Sandbox (SAND) Still the most interesting project , And is the leader of the most successful virtual world project
NFT Worlds (WRLD) It is definitely a project worthy of attention , utilize Minecraft Design , Developers can easily build virtual worlds , Various NFT The project has been buying land and developing it into its own metauniverse （ namely Floki Verse）—— Where? NFT Worlds It seems to have great potential , And will write an in-depth discussion about it in the future .
just as Jason Choi Pointed out , image The Sandbox In this way, the winning meta universe bottom project will become the main winner in this field , It's kind of like L1 Fat agreement .
2022 Portfolio allocation in the second quarter of
General idea —— I think what happens in the market will naturally be expressed in my portfolio allocation , therefore ......
1. What are the possible benefits of a long-term bear market ？
The bear market is unlikely to prolong , Because the people I talked to were TradFi instis People at work have been telling me that they are preparing to configure cryptocurrency , Purchasing power will come soon .
The market is maturing , Market participants know BTC/ETH/Crypto Will continue to exist , We may only have frequent corrections .
If a bear market does happen , I'm going to mainly enter the stable currency , Only market transactions .
2. Which market segments are not discussed now , And in the next few months / It will be more popular in a year ？（ This is the question I often ask myself ）
I think the meta universe will be the mainstream in the next few years , But not many people talk about the meta universe . Maybe this will be a space worthy of attention .
I do know Facebook（Meta） Support Realy, And one called MONA Independence Web 3 The agreement was ignored .
3. Offensive or defensive ？
defensive , And look for powerful currencies
4. Based on the above problems , How will I better manage my risks ？
Tend to be more liquid , At the same time, stick to the good R/R game .
My portfolio （NFA）
1.(30%) game
Crypto Raiders（RAIDER）
I wrote my opinion on this project recently , however Cut a long story short ;Raider The team has a long-term vision , Give up short-term profitability for the long-term sustainability of the game .
This is a game that even some game designers are playing
TreasureDAO (MAGIC)
One of the most dynamic communities there
Treasure DAO Building a decentralized Nintendo , Their games can be combined with each other , game A Items in the game can be in the game B Use in .
Other games
There are other games , I'm currently getting a white list and / Or start buying their games NFT, When I get more information , Will share in the future .
2.(20%) Productive assets
Benqi(QI)
For the reasons mentioned earlier in the article
Convex Finance ($CVX)
stay Be4 Tetra Round tables and CitadelDao Accumulate more CVX
Badger DAO (BADGER)
Have an initial position , I will increase my position in the future .
3.(40%) Stable currency / Mainstream currency or L1 / Coin-Perps
Due to the current market situation , A market with scattered funds , I find it hard to buy and hold , It's more like a trader's market .
My strategy has shifted from holding productive assets to trading more , do T Good , Band trading is also good , Basically anything that can keep my portfolio liquid but also take advantage of market trends .
This part of the portfolio will be where I spend the most time , From stabilizing money to holding Avax/Luna Or trading market
4.（10%) Alpha Speculation
There is always such a configuration , It may take more than 6 Items with a very low market value with a holding period of three months , In fact, it's the kind of project that is heavy and easy to forget , At present, part of this combination is what I mentioned earlier DeFX The coin .
Tokens will not be revealed here at this time , Because they have a small market value and high risk .