Can CELO, the three good students of stable currency track, copy Terra's rise?

Mint Ventures 2021-11-23 15:08:39 阅读数:878

celo good students stable currency

researcher : Xu Xiaopeng

 De centralization Section 1 key points of Research Report


Decentralized stable currency is a track with huge space and rapid growth ,Celo The project has a good team background , The project narrative includes financial equity 、 Negative carbon concept , Meet the expectations of mainstream values for encryption business , The luxury investor background of the project is also conducive to the introduction of industry resources . The stability of the project + The play of the public chain , More competitive than a simple stable currency agreement , The mobile priority strategy has also added many highlights to the project .

But from a quantitative point of view ,Celo The number of ecological funds and high-quality projects is very weak , To support the present 20 The circulation market value of US $100 million is difficult . Therefore, further observation is needed 8 Launched in late June “DeFi for people”1 The promotion of the $100 million incentive plan to the ecology , With the intense competition of the new public chain , Leave to Celo The golden window period of development will not be too long .

Get up early on the decentralized track , But in DeFi Ecologically “ Late set ” A good student Celo There are still development opportunities , The winner or loser may appear in the next six months .

1. Core investment logic

●  Decentralized stable currency market has broad space , The growth rate is much higher than that of the stable currency market as a whole , The supervision of centralized and stable currency may further open development space for decentralized projects

● Celo The stable currency + Business structure of public chain ecology , It is more competitive than a simple stable currency agreement , This is already in Terra Protocol Has been fully verified in the rise of

● Celo Mobile priority and focus on the differentiation strategy of financial backward areas , So that it has accumulated a large basic stable currency user population

●  Excellent team and investor background

2. The valuation

Celo Two core risks :a. On the chain DeFi Poor ecological expansion , Failed in the competition of the new public chain ;b. Most of the team is in the United States , Greatly affected by regulation .

3. Main risks

Compare with that of the same track Terra Protocol Business data , The market has given Celo A more optimistic valuation , This includes a pair of Celo Of “DeFi for people”1 The expectation of $100 million ecological subsidies . follow-up Celo Whether the market value can be maintained or even increased , It is necessary to further observe the introduction and capital capacity of ecological projects .

 De centralization Section 2 basic information of the project


1. Project business scope

Celo Our core business is to stabilize the currency with decentralization + With DeFi Public chain platform for core services , Or rather, “ Open source payment network ”. It is committed to reducing the threshold for users to use encrypted financial services , Let those who don't have bank accounts , People in areas that lack access to financial services , It is also easy to transfer money through mobile devices , And use it freely DeFi product .

2. Past developments and roadmap

Celo The project was established earlier , It is now in operation 4 Year time , Its main network is in 2020 Annual online , Since then, the progress of the project has been significantly accelerated .

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3. Business situation

As mentioned earlier ,Celo As an open source payment network with stable currency as the core , Its business is to stabilize money + Public chain platform . We will observe its current business situation from these two perspectives .

Stable currency

Celo At present, the stable currency that has been launched is the stable currency anchored to the US dollar cUSD(2020.6 go online ) And a stable currency anchored to the euro cEUR(2021.6 go online ), The main business data of these two stable currencies are as follows :

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Based on the above data ,Celo At present, the overall market value of stable currency is still small , The value lies in 1.6 About US $100 million , However, the number of stable currency holding addresses is very high , only cUSD Of 22 ten thousand + Number of addresses , Of all decentralized stable coins, it is second only to Dai Of 50 ten thousand + Number of addresses , Higher than third Terra The dollar stability currency of the agreement UST(14 ten thousand +,9 Data in the last ten days of the month ).

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Public chain platform

In the face of Celo Before introducing the public chain business of , It is necessary to discuss the necessity of the bottom public chain for stabilizing currency products .

Stable currency track is a track with obvious network effect , Whether it's users or merchants ( agreement ), Are more willing to choose a stable currency with a wider user network to make payments or expand business .

therefore , The latecomers of the stable currency track want to realize the cold start of the project , Quickly expand your user network , We must adopt a competitive strategy that is highly differentiated from the current head stable currency project , It's possible to come out .

The two core problems to be solved in the stable currency project are :1. How to realize the stability mechanism ;2. How to expand the user network and demand scenarios .

In the practice of most emerging decentralized stable currency projects , They mainly focus on the stability mechanism of stable currency 、 Design of liquidation mechanism , Among them, there are some innovative ideas that brighten people's eyes , such as Fei Protocol Of PCV( Agreement control value ) Mechanism , as well as Liquity Liquidation mechanism, etc . But as a result , These stable currency projects have not built a payment network of sufficient magnitude , in short : Their stability is too low . For details, see the comparison list of decentralized stable currency addresses in the previous paragraph , We found that most users of decentralized stable currency projects are related to Dai It's quite different .

In this , We can draw a preliminary conclusion : The key to the success of the stable currency project lies in the expansion of the client , Rather than the design of the stabilization mechanism .

Several decentralized stable currency projects mentioned above , All of them are exquisitely designed in the stability mechanism , However, the expansion of demand scenarios is not good .

The only stable currency item that has developed well in recent years Terra Protocol, Focus the project on “ Construction of requirement scenarios ” On , Achieved good results , The market value of the project has exceeded MakerDAO, In the top 20 name . The strategy is not just to make a stable currency agreement , But build the bottom public chain from scratch , And cultivate 、 Introduce a large number of DeFi project , For their own native stable currency UST Provide financial scenarios , Realize the early cold start and network expansion of stable currency .

The public chain has at least two core roles :

●  It can provide better performance than Ethereum , It also has higher autonomy in core parameters

●  Public chain tokens can be used for ecological incentives , Whether it's self built applications or subsidies to introduce third-party developers , Can quickly build the initial scene of stable currency

At this point ,Celo And Terra The play and positioning are very similar , Embodied in :

●  The starting point of both projects revolves around “ Decentralizing stable currency ” an , Instead of being a pan public chain platform, it directly connects with Ethereum PK, The focus of strategy makes the resources of the project more concentrated

●  The stories of both projects start from simple “ Decentralized stable currency agreement ” Gradually expand to the big financial ecology , Positioning from monetary services to an open comprehensive financial platform

●  Are used to DeFi Lead a stable currency , Play with ecological cultivation scenes , Vigorously cultivate and subsidize the application of

In this view , The author thinks Celo At present, the largest minefield of the stable currency project has been avoided , That is to say “ Re mechanism design , Light scene expansion , Expect the stable currency to expand spontaneously after achieving stability ”.

Besides ,Celo be relative to Terra Additional advantages of , From it to EVM Compatibility , This greatly reduces the developer's time in Celo The difficulty of building applications on .

that Celo What is the development of the public chain ? Actually, it's not so ideal .

Its core business data are as follows :

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according to Defillama Included in the dApp data ,celo Of TVL Ranking No. in all public chains 12

And in the TVL front 10 Of Celo Application ,Celo Used to stabilize its cUSD Price Mento DEX It takes up more than half of the country , As follows :

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overall ,Celo The public chain ecology is deducting the official Mento Of 7.7 After billion , Its TVL Only for 2 Billion dollars +, Whether it's hype or not , This is related to Celo until 8 The public chain subsidy plan was started at the end of this month , At present, it is still in the early stage of ecological construction .

Business summary

Celo Although the project was established in 2017 year , And the online time on the main network is 2020 Mid year , However, its ecological development is still in its early stage , There are fewer applications on the chain , The capital volume is also small . However, the number of stable currency holding addresses is large , And with the Terra Also chose the strategy of driving the development of stable currency through Ecology , This is Celo The expansion of user network brings more opportunities than those simple stable currency protocols .

4. Team situation

Core members

Celo There are two core institutions in the operation of , Namely Celo The foundation , as well as CLabs.Clabs Currently responsible for project development 、 Business development and other core work , More people .CLabs The founder partner is Rene Reinsberg and Marek Olszewski, Another partner Sep K and Markus F.

Two of the founders have MIT (MIT) Education experience , among Marek Olszewski made MIT PhD in machine learning ,Rene Reinsberg It is MIT Sloan business school MBA.

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Both founders have previously worked in MIT As a research assistant , After that, he co founded the community business platform Locu, Two years later 7000 The price of US $million is used by the online business service platform GoDaddy Acquisition , They are in GoDaddy Vice presidents , And all of them are in the 2017 He left and founded Celo.

The resumes of several other partners are also good , Most of them come from traditional financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley or large consulting companies .

among Marek Olszewski At the same time Celo Mobile payment application in ecology Valora Responsible person , The project this year 7 Independent financing was carried out in January , To obtain the 2000 Ten thousand dollars of investment , The investor is still A16Z and Polychain.

The whole team

CLabs The size of the staff is not small , Its leading English Linkedin The information on shows that there are 130 I'm a working employee , This is already a very large company in the field of encryption . Most of its employees are in the United States , have other 1/4 Around Germany , Many employees come from Ivy League schools , From MIT 、 University of California, Los Angeles and Davis 、 Stanford 、 Cambridge 、 Brown University is not a minority .

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CLabs The location of the employee and the Graduate School , source :Linkedin

In terms of Posts ,Clabs The largest number of Engineering developers , About half , The second is business development , occupy 1/3 about .

On the whole ,Celo The team is large , Education and Entrepreneurship of core founding members 、 Excellent working background , Most of the employees are from famous schools , It's a typical elite team .

5. Investment institution

Celo from 2018 Financing has been started since , A total of 6500 Million dollars , The company has sufficient grain and grass backup . Due to the founder's excellent education and entrepreneurial background , In addition, the project aims at a track with wide space ,Celo It has also won the favor of many investors , Its investment portfolio is luxurious .

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among , Both famous A16Z、Polychain capital、Dragonfly capital And other venture capital institutions , Also have Coinbase Such industrial capital , also Twitter founder Jack Dorsey、Linkedin Co-founder of Reid Hoffman Such a well-known entrepreneur . stay Celo In multiple rounds of financing ,A16Z They're constantly overweight , Didn't miss any round of investment opportunities .

6. Summary of basic information of the project

Through to Celo Sort out the basic situation , We are right. Celo The observations are as follows :

●  The business is stable currency + Open financial platform , It is quite correct in the expansion strategy of stabilizing currency

●  The business situation is mixed : The number of stable currency user addresses is high , But the distribution scale is still small ; Both the number of projects and the amount of funds are relatively small , At an early stage

●  The project team and staff have good background , Therefore, it has also won the favor of high-quality capital inside and outside the industry , The project has rich financing reserves , Hay enough

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In the third quarter

Business analysis


1. Stable currency Industry Overview

Stabilize the scale and market share of the currency track

according to Coingecko data , At present, the overall scale of the stable currency has reached 1400 Billion dollars , Daily trading volume 943 Billion dollars .

Among them, decentralized stabilization currency ( Top 10 , The market value accounts for all decentralized stable currencies 95% above ) The ratio of the total market value to the whole stable currency market is only 12% Less than , Its daily trading volume is only 0.8% about , as follows :

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drawing :MintVentures Data sources :Coingecko Time :2021.11.4

One side , This shows that the current centralized stable currency still has absolute dominance , In especial USDT, Its trading volume accounts for as much as 87.2%. But from another point of view , This also shows that decentralized stable currency has great growth space , Especially when the centralized stable currency faces regulatory constraints .

2021 year 11 month 1 Japan , The Biden administration's financial working group released a report on stabilizing the currency , It is considered that stable currency is a competitive means of payment , But it must be regulated , Biden's economic advisers have also repeatedly urged Congress to pass a legal framework for a stable currency , The framework will first centralize the stability currency, such as USDT、USDC and BUSD And so on , To supervise such banks .

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source :CNBC

Stabilize the growth rate of the currency market

in recent years , The scale of the stable currency market is developing explosively , according to Debank Data statistics ,2020 year 11 In January, the scale of the stable currency market increased year-on-year 441%, and 2021 In, the scale of the stable currency market increased year-on-year 445%, in consideration of Debank Our data have not been included yet Terra Wait for the new public chain and MIM And other emerging stable currencies , actual 2021 The growth rate of the stable currency market in should be 500% above .

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Stabilize the trend of currency market scale , Data sources :Debank

The market scale of centralized stable currency is growing more rapidly .

By 11 month , Its market scale has realized 10 A year-on-year increase of about times , according to Debank Statistical data , The total amount of decentralized stabilization currency increased from last year's 7.9 About US $100 million , To the present 94.1 More than $100 million , The year-on-year growth rate is 1091%.

Again ,Debank The data does not contain Terra On the main chain UST, And some other newer decentralized stable currencies , Therefore, in fact, the overall growth rate of decentralized stable currency market should be 1800% above , This growth rate is the key to stabilizing the growth rate of the currency market as a whole 3 More than double .

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Decentralization stabilizes the growth trend of currency market value , Data sources :DeBank

Among them, the largest decentralized stable currency DAI, The annualized growth rate of its market value is 1093% about . It is worth mentioning that , Leading decentralized stable currency DAI The existing scale of is compared to 2021 year 5 The scale at the market peak in June increased 62.%, This also shows that the growth of decentralized stable currency market may not completely depend on the bull market cycle .

Through the above data , We can make a summary of the current stable currency market :

●  Stable currency is still a market with huge growth , The growth rate this year is much higher than last year

●  The growth rate of decentralized stable currency is much higher than that of centralized stable currency , It is the of its growth 3 More than times

●  The size of the stable currency market does not depend entirely on the bull market , Its market value is growing much faster than the recovery of the encryption market

●  Although the regulatory stick may fall soon , But the golden period of decentralized and stable currency development may just come , It is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future

2. Project competition pattern

Celo The focus is on decentralization and stability , In this chapter, we will also focus on the competition pattern of decentralized stable currency .

according to Coingecko data , At present, the market value ranks the top 10 The total issuance scale of decentralized stable coins is 161.58 Billion dollars , as follows :

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We can find out ,DAI In the decentralized stable currency market, it still occupies an absolute leading position , The scale accounts for half of the country , The trading volume accounts for nearly of the top ten 70%. Plus the ranking 2,3 Of UST and MIM, The top three decentralized stable currencies account for 81%, The proportion of transaction volume reached 90% above ( Not included UST stay Terra Transaction data of the main network , In fact, the ratio should be higher ).

overall , The concentration of decentralized stable currency market is not much lower than that of centralized stable currency .

and Celo As a project “ get up very early ”, But in terms of stabilizing the market value of the currency “ Late set ” Project , Whether it still has the possibility of being a latecomer ? Where does this possibility come from ?

The author thinks , Compared with other decentralized stable currencies ,Celo Our core strengths come from the following :

  • The main chain + Stable business structure , Ensure its stability cUSD and cEUR There are preliminary scenes in its own Ecology , Cold start is relatively simple
  • The project has a strong investor background and well-known partners , Including Deutsche Telekom 、Opera Browsers and so on
  • compatible EVM, It is convenient for application developers to introduce other Ethereum and new public chain through subsidies

Besides ,Celo There are two main differences in the growth strategy of stabilizing currency users :

A. Mobile first : Pay attention to the mobile terminal

1. Create a mobile payment application in the ecosystem Valora, Led by the co founders themselves , And raise funds separately ;

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Valora stay Appstore and Googelplay Interface on

According to the data of the app store ,Valora stay appstore Yes 586 A score ,Googleplay Show Valora Installation times are 10 ten thousand +, Both versions are updated frequently ,IOS The latest version of was released on 10 month 18 Japan ,android The version of is published in 11 month 2 Japan . According to official public information ,Valora Before the official launch, the test users have exceeded 25000 people . Just Valora Current specific user data , The author asked Celo Official personnel verified , But so far no reply has been received . But by Googleplay Installation data for , It can be inferred that the cumulative number of registered users is 10-20 About 10000 . The data here does not include indirect customers provided by their business partners .

Compared with the traditional transfer ,Valora It has the following advantages :

●  The transaction is based on Celo Blockchain operation , Easy cross-border payment and transfer , Service charge is 0.01 dollar , Average arrival time 5 second

●  The user can transfer money to another user's mobile phone number through the mobile phone number , The block address of the payee is the public key generated through the decentralization of the mobile phone number ( This is done by the authentication node )

●  This operation is simpler than traditional encrypted wallets , Reduce the user's use cost

2. In the introduction of ecological applications and the cultivation of developers ,Celo It also attaches great importance to the adaptation and scenario of the mobile terminal , For example, the theme of its recently launched hacker song is “Make Crypto Mobile”( Make encryption mobile ).

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3. There are also many partners from related fields of mobile devices , Including Deutsche Telekom 、 Mobile browser Opera、 Mobile payment service provider Moola etc. .

B. Focus on areas with backward financial services

Celo In terms of developer rewards , Special bonuses are provided for development teams in the following regions , Hope to cultivate local applications for the local market , Include : Latin America 、 Africa 、 Brazil 、 Asia-Pacific 、 India . These areas are also Valora The main market of .

Celo The reason for adopting the strategy of mobile priority and focusing on backward areas , Based on a judgment : The area and population of smart phones are more popular than that of traditional finance , Many people in backward areas don't have bank accounts , But there's a smartphone .Celo It is the hope that by stabilizing the currency +Defi+ Mobile devices , Bring them a low threshold 、 Efficient transfer and financial services .

Maybe that's why ,Celo The stable currency cUSD The market value is not large , But in the decentralized stable currency , The number of money holding addresses is second only to DAI, There are many people present , But the per capita account amount is low . Of course , This is still a little verified .

In addition to paying attention to the financially backward population ,Celo Still helping the poor 、 A lot of efforts have been made in environmental protection , For example, many attempts have been made to donate money to disaster victims in Haiti through stability currency , Through and with Wren( A project to fund tree planting and rainforest conservation ) Cooperate to reduce carbon emissions . Besides ,Celo There are also many applications related to poverty alleviation fund-raising and carbon emission trading in the ecosystem . It is worth mentioning that ,Celo Will use 0.5% Reserve pool funds , Direct purchase of carbon credit tokens cMCO2.

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At present, carbon credit tokens cMCO2 Occupy Celo Of total reserve funds 0.09%, source :

Under the background that the world pays great attention to the pressure brought by encryption mining to the environment ,Celo“ Negative carbon blockchain ” Self positioning , And MakerDAO It has been talked about many times recently “ hold DAI Transition to a green currency ” agree without prior without previous consultation , All hope to strive for a better social image for themselves in the space of public opinion .

On the whole ,Celo In their own stable currency network expansion strategy , Unlike most stable currency items , Its core features can be summarized as :

●  Public chain + Stable business structure

●  Mobile first product positioning and growth strategy

●  Focus on the financial needs and population of backward areas

As the author has repeatedly stressed before , Stable currency is a track with strong network effect , The same set of strategies can't accommodate 2 More than competitors , Latecomers who want to run out must be positioned 、 New insights into strategy and products .

Celo Basically follow the above principles , It is different from the existing stable coin players in many dimensions .

More vividly ,Celo At present, it seems to be an early stage of development , Adopt a mobile priority strategy , And focus on the demand of the population in backward areas Terra Protocol.

3. General certificate model analysis

Celo The general certificates in the system are 2 set :1. Core governance pass :Celo( Original name Celo Gold);2. Stable currency :cUSD and cEUR.

Stability mechanism of stable currency

Celo It adopts a set of stability mechanism that integrates the characteristics of many stable currency items in the world , The key points are as follows :

● Celo The stable currency is backed by a reserve pool composed of a set of comprehensive assets , The reserve rate of the reserve pool ( The ratio of the value of reserve assets divided by the value of stable currency in circulation ) Far above 1, This provides the core underpinning for the intrinsic value of its stable currency

●  Despite the existence of reserve funds , But with MakerDAO Different ,Celo The stable currency is not forged by excess mortgage , But through the official stabilization module Mento Hair Celo For a token , The user sends 1 Dollar value Celo, You can get 1 The dollar cUSD Wait for the stable currency , It can also be reversed to Mento send out 1 Dollar value cUSD, Exchange for 1 The dollar Celo. Under this mechanism , When cUSD The market price is below 1 dollar , Someone will buy at a low price cUSD Go and get 1 dollar Celo, In the same way cUSD higher than 1 Dollar time , Someone will use Celo Casting cUSD To sell , The existence of arbitragers will ensure cUSD It will not deviate too far from its anchor price .

●  There are three mechanisms that will be used to ensure the adequacy of the reserve pool :1. When the reserve rate is below the threshold , Block output Celo Will be included in the reserve pool , Replenish capital ;2. You can charge a certain rate of transfer rate , Replenish capital ( Not currently in use );3. stay Mento A certain stabilization fee is charged in the transaction module of , Used to replenish reserve capital .

●  To improve the security of reserves , Its portfolio is more diverse , Currently include Celo、BTC、ETH、Dai And carbon credit tokens cMCO2, It would be safer than just using project tokens as collateral (Terra Similar to this scheme ,Luna It is the invisible deposit of its original stable currency ).

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Celo The composition of reserve pool assets , Data sources :

Celo Stable currency mechanism and Terra protocol There are many similarities , Its core is to ensure its stability through coinage arbitrage . however Celo The design of the stabilization tank is more systematic and complete , Better stability . review Celo Stable currency cUSD The historical trend of , There was no significant loss of anchor , Basically stable at 0.99-1.02 Between , Even in this year's 5.19 During the collapse of the encryption market , Its price has not fluctuated much .

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cUSD Historical trend , source :Coingecko

Governance token Celo

a. Token allocation and release scheme

Celo The actual total amount of tokens is 10 Million pieces ,2050 The specific distribution before the year is as follows :

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By 2021 year 11 month ,Celo The proportion of tokens in circulation is about 34.73%, The monthly inflation rate is 2% about .

b. Token usage and scenario

Celo The main uses of governance tokens are as follows :

●  Get a bonus : Obtain the block output reward of the main network through pledge

●  Community governance :Celo It is the campaign verification node 、 Vote for nodes 、 Necessary assets for initiating and voting on governance proposals , Nodes can obtain block output rewards through verification behavior

●  It can be used to cast stable coins of the system, such as cUSD and cEUR etc.

●  Can be used to pay for the network Gas( You can also pay with system stable currency )

Like other token assets ,Celo The price of is ultimately determined by market supply and demand , Its supply comes from the token allocation and unlocking of the system , And its long-term needs , Mainly from the demand for stable coins , Because the stable coin can only be struck through Celo Conduct , So the more stability money the whole ecology needs , The greater the casting demand ,Celo The greater the locking rate , As the supply gradually decreases , Form the core driving force of price rise .

4. risk

Celo At present, the risks mainly come from the following 2 Parts of :

a. On the chain DeFi Poor ecological expansion , Failed in the competition of the new public chain

Celo And Terra Protocol Established at a similar time , And in the overall strategy, they all chose to focus on the main business of stable currency + Differentiated competition mode of public chain platform , But at the moment Celo The overall development of ecology on the chain is obviously slower than Terra, add BSC、 Avalanche agreement 、Fantom、Polygon And the rise of a large number of Ethereum layer 2 networks ,Celo The competition situation in the public chain is becoming more and more severe . The public chain is similar to the stable currency , It is also a track with obvious network effect , A fast-growing public chain can form : user — Money — developer Positive cycle of , Formation of Matthew effect .

For now ,Celo Of Defi Subsidy Scheme “Defi for people” The appeal to Ethereum head applications does not seem to be enough , In its 8 The subsidy cooperation project announced by the government in June includes Aave、Curve、Sushiswap wait , At present, only Sushi, stay Aave Recently announced V3 Cross chain function diagram , Which includes L2 And several new public chains , But it doesn't see Celo.Celo If you can't seize the opportunity to introduce more rich chain applications as soon as possible , The gap between it and other public chains will be more and more difficult to catch up .

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Aave V3 Cross chain planning of functions , source :

b. Supervision comes

Stabilizing currency is the key direction of current supervision , Although the first to bear the brunt should be USDT、USDC、BUSD Isocentric stabilization currency , But those decentralized stable currency projects with large market value will also attract regulatory attention . For example, recently Terra Protocol Upper Mirror The agreement was by the United States SEC Stare at , And give Terra Protocol The actual leader of Do Kwon Sent a summons , Ask him to testify for this , This behavior triggered Do Kwon A strong rebound , Its direct counterclaim SEC. However ,Celo Behind the scenes CLabs The founders and most of their employees live and work in the United States , The influence and deterrence of regulation is obviously greater than that of its base in South Korea Terra.

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The fourth quarter,

Preliminary Valuation


1. Five core issues

Which business cycle is the project in ? It's maturity , It's still in the early and middle stages of development ?

The project is at an early stage of development . Its stable currency business and public chain ecology are still small , There is still a large space for development .

Whether the project has a strong competitive advantage ? Where does this competitive advantage come from ?

Celo Investors with a luxurious lineup , Its “ Stable currency + Public chain ” Ecological play , It is also more competitive than a simple stable currency agreement . But compared with the existing stable currency and the new public chain leader , And similar “ Stable currency Legion ”Terra comparison ,Celo At present, there is no very solid competitive advantage .

Whether the long-term investment logic of the project is clear ? Whether it is in line with the general trend of the industry ?

Celo The medium and long-term investment logic of the project comes from the huge development space of decentralized and stable currency market , And its own public chain Ecology + The force of mobile strategy . Decentralized stability is still a very good track ,Celo stay “ Stable currency + Public chain ” Based on the mobility strategy and focus on backward areas , Also with other competitors out of a certain degree of differentiation , Generally speaking, it is in line with the development trend of the industry .

What are the main variables in the operation of the project ? Is this factor easy to quantify and measure ?

at present Celo Whether the ecology on the chain can rise rapidly , Seize the window period of the development of the new public chain , Provide a cold start scenario for its stable currency in time , This is a Celo Whether it can remain on the decentralized stable coin table . This factor can be determined by Celo The whole of Ecology TVL、 Number of high-quality projects , And the number of transfers on the chain of stable currency .

What is the way of project management and governance ?DAO What's the level ?

Celo Formal community governance has been started , At present, it has passed \ Yes 43 A proposal , The content includes parameter adjustment , Add reserve assets, release of contracts and product functions, etc . The number of participating addresses in each voting period is basically 100 above , The number of participants is large .

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2. Valuation level

Celo It is a stable currency + Comprehensive project of public chain ecology , Its token Celo Contains triple intrinsic value :

●  resources \ goods : Used as an intra ecological transfer Gas fee

●  currency : As a medium of payment , Transfer and store value

●  equity : Have voting and control over the project , It can capture the economic value of some agreements , You can pledge to obtain the new token distribution of the system

Any public chain token , It's hard to PS\PE Class for horizontal comparison , Even more unable to DCF Cash flow discount, etc . But for the sake of Celo Observe the current market value level , The author will choose to follow... In many dimensions Celo Another project with high similarity Terra Protocol, Compare the core indicators of the two projects horizontally , Yes Celo The current market is worth a preliminary evaluation .Terra And Celo The comparability of is mainly reflected in :

●  The track is consistent : All focus on stability , Stable currency + Finance is its core business

●  The business mix and strategy are similar : All use stable currency + The combined business form of the public chain , Provide the initial scenario for the original stable currency through the public chain ecology to expand the user network

●  There are many similarities in product mechanism : For example, the stability mechanism of stable currency is similar , And all use POS Consensus mechanism, etc

Next, we compare the core data of the two projects .

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We found that , Even though Terra The current market value is Celo Close to 20 times , but Celo And stable currency leading projects Terra There is little difference in some core data , such as :

●  Total addresses :Celo about Terra Of 1/2 about

●  Number of transfers : Close , In recent days, Celo Slightly higher

●  Number of stable currency addresses :Terra At present, there is no public data on the number of stable currency addresses , But according to Previous data , Its 9 The number of stable coin holding addresses in the last ten days of the month is 14 All around ( At present, data update has been suspended ), Now it is estimated that it will not exceed 20 ten thousand , Same as Celo The number of stable currency addresses is similar .

so , In terms of user scale and the number of ecologically active users , There is not much distance between the two . The real gap between the two projects lies in the issue scale of stable currency and the ecological development of the public chain DeFi Capital capacity , On these two indicators ,Terra Namely Celo Of 24 Times and 36 times , Only from the market value \ Eco core applications TVL Look at , be relative to Terra The market has given Celo A more optimistic valuation , This includes a pair of Celo Of “DeFi for people”1 The expectation of $100 million ecological subsidies .

therefore , It may still not be buying Celo The best time .

But qualitatively , The author thinks Celo Have the right differentiation strategy , Stable currency + The combination of common chains , And mobile priority and attention to financial backward areas . This makes Celo It has a user scale and active population that is not inferior to the leading decentralized stable currency project , That's exactly what it is. Celo Early focus on Marketing under the chain ( Focus on offline promotion in backward areas of Asia, Africa and Latin America ) The results of , Created a “ Multi user , Wide area , Low per capita assets ” User status of , But it also makes Celo Missed this year 2-8 Yuexin public chain DeFi Early dividends of development .

But if Celo The ecological construction and project introduction are rapid , Its TVL There is a significant growth trend , The project still has high configuration value .

3. Summary of preliminary value assessment

From a qualitative point of view , Decentralized stable currency is a track with huge space and rapid growth ,Celo The project has a good team background , The project narrative includes financial equity 、 Negative carbon concept , Meet the expectations of mainstream values for encryption business , The luxury investor background of the project is also conducive to the introduction of industry resources . The stability of the project + The play of the public chain , More competitive than a simple stable currency agreement , The mobile priority strategy has also added many highlights to the project .

From a quantitative point of view ,Celo The number of ecological funds and high-quality projects is very weak , To support the present 20 The circulation market value of US $100 million is difficult . Therefore, further observation is needed “DeFi for people”1 The promotion of the $100 million incentive plan to the ecology , With the intense competition of the new public chain , Leave to Celo The golden window period of development will not be too long .

Get up early on the decentralized track , But in DeFi Ecologically “ Late set ” A good student Celo There are still development opportunities , The winner or loser may appear in the next six months .

 De centralization

Section 5

References and thanks


This article needs special thanks Celo APAC Community information 、 Help in information sharing .

Other references :

The market value of the project

Business data

Terra Station

Project documentation

Official information :

* If there are obvious facts about the above 、 Wrong understanding or data , Welcome to give me feedback , I will revise the research report .

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