Derivatives, lending and defi: a panoramic interpretation of bitcoin guarantee market

Deep chain finance 2021-11-23 14:39:13 阅读数:90

derivatives lending defi panoramic interpretation

author :Hegel

before , The new act of El Salvador came into force , Bitcoin became the legal tender of the country (Legal Tender), It has quickly aroused heated debate in the international community . Is there a landing scenario for bitcoin ? What is the value of bitcoin ? It's a bubble , Or the carrier of value ?

Norwegian Investment Research Institute Arcane Research This year launched a series of bitcoin research reports , One of them is entitled 《 Bitcoin banking : The state of bitcoin as collateral 》, This paper discusses the value and application scenarios of bitcoin from the guarantee market , Just in response to these questions .

Deep chain finance takes Arcane Based on Research Report , Compile this article , For Industry Exchange .

One Bitcoin guarantee

Collateral (collateral) It is the assets that the lender of funds requires as collateral . Once the borrower defaults , Unable to repay principal and interest , The lender can take the collateral and sell it , Change into cash to make up for the loss .

Arcane Data calculation , There are now 62.5 Ten thousand bitcoins are used as collateral , Value contract 300 Billion dollars , Accounting for only... Of the global collateral market 0.15%. The global collateral market value is approximately 20 Trillions of dollars , At present, the mainstream collateral is government bonds and cash backed securities .

Arcane mention , If bitcoin becomes mainstream collateral , Can play an important role in maintaining global financial stability .

The European Central Bank has made a summary : Evaluate whether an asset can become a good collateral in the bond market , The most important factors are liquidity and security .

To be specific ,“ Mobility ” Indicators include : Strong liquidity , Easy to value , Easy to transfer , Low unnecessary cost (deadweight cost, The cost paid by society ), Easy to verify .“ Security ” Indicators include : stability of price , Can resist cyclical economic crises , Corresponding to stable purchasing power .

The real estate 、 gold 、 Treasury bonds can also be used as collateral for loans , Better than bitcoin in terms of security , But it is at a disadvantage in liquidity . This is inseparable from the design of bitcoin :

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No counterparty risk . Bitcoin doesn't need anything else to support it , Because its value is inherent in the asset itself , Everyone can store bitcoin in their wallet . This decentralized network is protected by thousands of people , No third party can confiscate the user's bitcoin or review the transaction , Everyone has full control .

Global markets . Bitcoin has no borders , Do not rely on centralized entities , Therefore, we can quickly realize the global transfer of wealth . In the traditional way , Trust must be given to a third-party entity , For example, banks or governments .

7*24*365 transaction . Traditional financial markets are closed on weekends , Can't buy 、 Sell or transfer assets , In this respect , Bitcoin has the highest liquidity .

Easy to carry , Easy to transmit . Hundreds of millions of dollars can be saved in a small USB In the device , Or just remember a string of passwords . gold 、 Real estate is impossible .

A conservative estimate ,3 There will be... In the year 42 Ten thousand bitcoins can be used as guarantee . In an optimistic situation , This figure may exceed 100 m .

In terms of collateral properties , Bitcoin and dollar cash 、 Both the dollar and the stable currency are in a competitive relationship . Although bitcoin is challenged by competitive currencies such as Ethereum in the proportion of cryptocurrency market value , However, due to the stability of the currency, the regulatory variables are greater , Bitcoin can find a place instead .

Bitcoin trading ecology is constantly improving , Increasing liquidity . Not long after , Bitcoin lending rates will fall sharply , After the opportunity cost becomes lower , This market will attract more attention .

The guarantee role of bitcoin , It is mainly reflected in three markets : Derivative 、 Lending and DeFi. They are both the embodiment of bitcoin value , It is also discovering and mining the application value of bitcoin . Overall Ecology , It can be summarized as follows , Later, we will introduce :

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Two Derivatives market

Bitcoin was the first to prove its value in the form of collateral , In the futures market . Not used in what most people are familiar with now u Standard contract ( With USDT Settlement ), Currency standard contract ( With BTC Or other cryptocurrency settlement ) It was the mainstream in the early stage of the contract market .

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however , After the outbreak , Bitcoin has been gradually in the contract market “ Fall out of favor ”. People are using dollars more and more , Or USD stable currency to price the contract 、 Undertake margin function .

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In contract transactions , Bitcoin and dollars / Change in the proportion of US dollar stable currency as margin , from Arcane Sort out according to public data

It's all tied up BitMEX exchange .BitMEX There are two characteristics : First, only derivatives , Do not do spot trading services ; Second, only bitcoin is accepted as collateral , Can be regarded as a staunch believer in bitcoin .

This exchange used to be the leader in the contract market , It's a perpetual swap ( abbreviation “ Perpetual contract ”) The inventor of the , It's also AC Milan's first official armband partner in history .

2018 Year is BitMEX The heyday of . According to the research statistics of scholars from the Business School of Sussex University and the HSBC Business School of Peking University , This year ,BitMEX The volume of contract transactions , More than the entire spot market .

2020 During the epidemic in , Due to the massive sell-off , Bitcoin value plunged into disaster .BitMEX Because it is completely traded in bitcoin , On the one hand, the system cannot handle the surge of transaction demand , On the other hand, it automatically liquidates the assets of many users , After the incident, his vitality was greatly damaged , Gradually withdrew from the Jianghu altar .


1. Bitcoin is in the contract market

BitMEX Have their own set of contract product classification . In addition to whether there is an expiration time , Share delivery contract and perpetual contract , You can also follow the mathematical principles behind the product , Split into linear contracts 、 Reciprocal contracts and dual currency contracts .

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BitMEX In the contract name , according to ISO standard , Record bitcoin as XBT;U Represents the... Of the year 9 A natural month , instead of USD or USDT;21 representative 2021 year . This article uses BTC For bitcoin

Through this complete mechanism ,BitMEX Almost brought the value of bitcoin to the extreme . It should be noted that ,BitMEX Design contract , More reference to the ideas of the foreign exchange market . On the spot market , It can be understood as trading some “ negotiable securities ”; But in the contract market , The reality we face is a deal pair , for example ETH / USD, In Finance , It can be regarded as their purchasing power in the commodity market (PPP), Or the division result of the coinage parity relative to gold .

Along the habit of the foreign exchange market , Oblique line ( The essence is the division sign in Mathematics ) It was the base currency (base currency), Then there is the valuation currency (quote currency). We usually say ETH The price has gone up to 4,000 USD, Mathematically, it's just ETH / USD The quotient of this division rises to 4,000.

Settlement currency (settlement currency), Is used to buy and sell contracts 、 Currency of deposit , Normal is the valuation currency in the transaction pair , But scientists have also designed dual currency contracts , Broke this Convention .

The first category : Linear contracts

Applicable conditions : 

Settlement currency = Valuation currency , Such as  ETH / BTC Delivery contract  

 Derivative ETHU21 yes 2021 year 9 Monthly delivery ETH contract , For details on the left, the red number is ETH The contract BTC Price (ETH / BTC), The gray number next to it is denominated in US dollars ETH The contract price (ETH / USD)

Transaction process :

Buy futures contracts and buy spot , There is little difference in form .ETH / BTC contract , Just use BTC business ;ETH / USD contract , Just use USD Settlement ;USDT The stable currency is similar to this . So-called “u Standard contract ” Is the most common linear contract .BitMEX The special thing is , Only BTC Can be used as a means of payment .

Yes BitMEX Speaking of , As long as the base currency is not bitcoin , It's all linear contracts . The difference from other exchanges is , All the contracts here are based on BTC As the valuation currency , So the numbers look a little strange . Used to three or four thousand u Of ETH Price , All of a sudden 0.07 BTC The price of , You need to press again BTC Yes USD Calculate the exchange rate again , It will make many users lose patience .

The second category : Countdown contract

Applicable conditions :

Settlement currency = Base currency , Such as  BTC / USD Delivery contract  

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The graph is BitMEX 2021 year 9 Bitcoin contract for monthly delivery , The green number on the left is the bitcoin price marked in US dollars (BTC / USD).

Transaction process :

The face value of a contract 1 USD, But only the converted equivalent BTC Come and buy this 1 USD. In other words , The contract is actually doing USD / BTC transaction .

Because of the reversal of the trading pair , So called “ Countdown contract ”. If you open the currency standard contract market , All the trading pairs seen here are reciprocal contracts . Whether it's sustainability or delivery ,ETH / USD All contracts are based on ETH Settlement , We only accept ETH margin ; Other counterfeit coins are similar .

BitMEX What's unique is , Only when bitcoin is the base currency , It's the countdown contract ; If it is ETH Other cryptocurrencies , It's not available on this exchange , When they become the base currency , The contract product becomes the one mentioned later “ Dual currency contract ”.

The third category : Dual currency contract

Applicable conditions :

The settlement currency is neither the base currency , It's not the currency , Such as  ETH / USD Delivery contract  

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BitMEX Medium ETH / USD contract , In the details on the left , The green number is ETH Of USD Price , But this contract only supports BTC transaction

Transaction process :

BitMEX Medium ETH / USD contract , Used as the settlement currency BTC It is neither the base currency of the underlying transaction pair , It's not the currency . The value of a contract is 1 ETH Press USD and BTC Calculated by multiplier BTC Number , Need to trade at this amount .

It should be noted that , The multiplier here is fixed , Not necessarily in the spot or futures markets BTC And USD Exchange rate calculation between , Its function is a bit like stock index futures 、 The index multiplier in stock index options . When closing a position , It's also calculated by this multiplier BTC Number .

Such contracts come from the foreign exchange market , It first appeared on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The Nikkei launched at that time 225 Index futures , It's dollars and yen 、 The product of the deep relationship between US stocks and Japanese stocks .

Arcane In conclusion : In the contract market , Compared with bitcoin USD and USDT, When used as margin, the biggest weakness is : It's too complicated .

Deep chain finance has previously written 《 Dismantle the bitcoin trading ecosystem : What institutions are there , What are you doing ?》, When it comes to exchanges, they can be divided into retail only 、 Only for institutions and two-way customer groups .BitMEX yes “ Retail only ” Type exchange , This determines that most users may not fully understand the of the exchange “ Good intentions ”.

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Because retail investors have many choices in the market , Loyalty is low , Therefore, the marketing expenses of retail exchanges are high . Although the product is perfect , But the genius of mathematicians still discourages many people , Finally, I chose to leave , Implicated bitcoin .

But why does bitcoin still have a chance ?Arcane From the other side , Reveals the complex mathematical model behind , The stability currency has incomparable advantages with the US dollar :


2. Bitcoin is an excellent hedging tool

First , Bitcoin is used to guarantee 、 Settlement , It can provide hedging opportunities for professional traders and market makers . The spot market can use USD or USDT transaction , The futures market can use BTC transaction . This happens to be BitMEX Recommended strategies , It is especially suitable for dual currency contracts , The jargon calls it “ Hedging ”(hedge).

by comparison , Exchanges such as Zhishang exchange are for “ compliance ”, On the contrary, bitcoin spot is not allowed to be used as guarantee or settlement , But there is no BTC and USD Interaction of , Rely solely on USD Financial products that hold up , The risk will only be higher .

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Chicago Mercantile Exchange regards bitcoin futures as equity futures , The settlement currency is still USD, And the expiration is only USD Cash delivery or extension , Traders don't compete with BTC There's any intersection .

secondly , Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency , Will not disappear because of policy or company operational risks . Stable currency, such as USDT、USDC Whether it can really achieve with the dollar 1:1 Anchoring , There are still many disputes ; Several members of Congress in the United States proposed the stable currency network sharing and bank license enforcement act last year (Stablecoin Tethering and Bank Licensing Enforcement Act, STABLE), To amend the Federal Deposit Insurance Act , Promote the classification and supervision of stable currency . The bill is still under discussion in Congress , Once through , All stable currency issuers are required to obtain a banking license , Comply with existing banking practice norms . If something really happens to the stability currency , The counterparty risk in the contract market is very high .


3. Bitcoin guarantee in the option market

Finally, look at the option market .

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Unlike the cold contract market , In the option market , Bitcoin is more widely recognized as margin . At present, about 95% Our open positions are based on bitcoin collateralized positions , Options settled in US dollars account for only 5%.

This is largely due to Deribit Absolute dominance in the option market . at present BTC The options market 88% All the open positions come from this exchange . stay BTC In the option market used as margin ,Deribit occupy 92% share .

3、 ... and The lending market

Arcane According to the cryptocurrency credit data provider CredMark Information about , Calculated 2019 year Q3 to 2020 year Q4, The size of cryptocurrency mortgage lending market has increased 1170%. Behind the active lending , It is the continuous maturity of blockchain business ecology .

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The lending market is diverse , You can lend legal currency , You can also lend cryptocurrency or stable currency ; Can be in CeFi In the operation , It can also be in DeFi Travel in . The participants in this part of the market are more diversified than the derivatives market , Different subjects have different demands when entering the site .

The first thing to say is , Retail investors do participate in the lending market , But the proportion is very small . We were there 《 Dismantle the bitcoin trading ecosystem : What institutions are there , What are you doing ?》 mention , There are four types of trading market subjects , majority “ Little fish ” Small amount of capital , There is no need for encrypted lending ; Active in the lending market , Most of them are familiar with the way of margin trading 、 A big fish with an incalculable amount of capital 、 Whales and “ Whales in suits ”.

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therefore , stay Arcane In the summarized lending service provider matrix , Retail service providers are mostly oriented towards “ Big fish ”, That is, large non institutional holders , Or miners . unexpectedly , Institutional lending demand side , Mostly from the United States .

Arcane quoted BlockFi data display , Institutional participants in the lending market , Mostly from the United States , More than twice as much as in the Asia Pacific Region .

What are the factors , Attract these professional investors into the lending market ?

1. A special track that is not affected by the cycle

Cryptocurrency mortgage lending , It is a financing channel outside the traditional bank credit evaluation system . No need to turn to the bank , There is no need to worry about the reduction of credit line , You can borrow working capital ; Moreover, international financing can be realized cross-border , Therefore, it is favored by practitioners .Arcane Their motives are divided into the following categories :

Deal with daily expenses

This is most obvious in the ore circle : Many miners are reluctant to sell their coins , I'd rather borrow money to live , Not even “ Dig and sell ”, Even spread such “ The quotes ”:

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When the situation is tight , You can mortgage bitcoin in your hand , In exchange for legal money , Pay for mining machine electricity 、 Living expenses ; Bull market , You can also mortgage bitcoin in your hand , Borrow legal currency to buy more mining machines . Whether it's a miner or a miner dealer , There is this psychology .

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in fact , And stock 、 Compared with futures trading , The rate of return that can be earned by lending money is very low . The reason why there are professional loan service providers willing to provide such services , The reason is that the amount of customer funds is large enough , Finally, the total profit is still considerable . And miners and big money holders are “ High net worth ” people , Credibility is also higher than that of ordinary traders .

Leveraged trading

This is a common way for professional investors to increase their exposure to cryptocurrency . Also mortgage part of bitcoin or other currencies , Borrow money in a certain proportion to buy some encrypted assets , The lending market has a big advantage over the futures contract market : The liquidation mechanism is different , Machine automatic strong leveling algorithm without contract market .

Encrypted credit rating companies CredMark Founder said :“ Only 10% Institutional borrowers have been liquidated , Far lower than other tracks in the market .”

In the lending market , The most used is LTV indicators , English full name Loan to Value, translate into Chinese “ Pledge rate ” or “ Loan to value ratio ”, The normal algorithm is :

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It's not hard to see. ,LTV Relative to the value of the collateral V, It's an inverse proportional function , The first derivative is negative 、 The second derivative is positive . The price of collateral fell , Will make the denominator of the fraction V falling , So that LTV rose , Until it reaches the strong level standard . The biggest risk occurs when the value of collateral tends to zero ,LTV The growth rate will rise infinitely , Strong average risk tends to infinity .

The lending market will not take the initiative to stabilize , Because the purpose of the service provider is to provide loans , Make money through interest . therefore , Lending platforms generally give borrowers up to 72 Hour time , Additional collateral , Or repay part of the loan , In order to LTV Reduce to a safe level .

Interest arbitrage

Interest arbitrage (arbitrage) It is a very professional trading strategy , The premise is to have professional knowledge , Use mathematical models and computer codes to instantly identify spread opportunities and complete transactions ; Second, a huge amount of money should be deposited , In order to enlarge the small point difference into a considerable profit . It is difficult for retail investors to meet these two conditions at the same time .

Carry forward (cash and carry) For example , This strategy is similar to the previously mentioned dual currency contract hedging , The difference lies in , It is not only the opposite operation of the spot market and the futures contract market , It also increased the operation of the lending market . This strategy , From futures in investment —— Spot parity relation theorem (Spot-Futures Parity Theory):

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among ,F0 Is the current futures price ,S0 Is the current spot price .rf For risk-free interest rates , Generally refers to the interest rate of short-term treasury bonds , This refers to the interest rate of borrowing legal currency or cryptocurrency in the lending market ;d It refers to the dividend rate of stocks or the coupon rate of bonds , For cryptocurrency, it is equal to 0;T Is the futures contract position period , Not necessarily held until the closing date .

Under normal circumstances , There must be a futures price in a currency , Greater than the spot price . Readers can open any exchange page , Verify this theorem . The above expression is , Is any cryptocurrency , The risk-free interest rate is rf Under the circumstances , The theoretical price of Futures .

Of course , Deviation from the theoretical price is bound to occur in the contract market . If the futures price is higher than this theoretical price , You can perform the following operations :

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In the table , A positive sign represents cash inflow , A minus sign represents an outflow of cash ,ST Is the spot price at the time of closing , The contract may not expire when the position is closed . In investment , Generally, the deposit paid when building a warehouse is ignored , Record the profit and loss of the futures market directly on the closing point at the end of the period . Finally, God operates in the three major markets , Earned back , Is the part where the current futures price is higher than the theoretical price .

If the current futures price is lower than the theoretical price , You can perform the opposite operation to the table , Funds lent at the beginning of the period 、 Sell goods 、 Open more Futures , The principal and interest are recovered at the end of the period 、 Buy back the stock 、 Pingduo Futures , This is it. “ Reverse arbitrage ” Trading strategies .

In the process , The lending market played a role in financing the purchase of spot goods at the beginning of the period 、 Closing positions at the end of the period realizes the function of price spread arbitrage cycle , And the premise for this strategy to work , Just enough collateral , The amount of funds that can support traders to borrow at a risk-free interest rate . In the cryptocurrency lending market , The best collateral , Bitcoin, of course .

Of course , Can do this , Are not ordinary people . in addition to , And gray trust premium arbitrage , Or the demand for cross market arbitrage .2019 At the beginning of year , There are many traders in China who mortgage cryptocurrencies , Borrow cash and rush into the stock market to make money . Some traders also mortgage mainstream currencies , borrow BNB Wait for platform currency , To participate in IEO Activities .

Market making

The importance of liquidity to market health is self-evident .BlockFi As early as 2019 It has been pointed out that , Among institutional participants in the lending market ,70% They are all market makers ,25% It's a fund ,5% It's the exchange . For market makers , The borrowed currency is mostly the transaction target currency , Most of the collateral is bitcoin . by comparison , Stable currency is rarely the subject of borrowing .

tax avoidance

stay 《 Why be pessimistic ? Ten thousand words long text says through the U.S. cryptocurrency tax 》 in , We have already mentioned , Tax laws and culture in the United States and many western countries , It is far from China . occasionally , Sudden large sales and large purchases are not market manipulation , Maybe someone just wants to avoid taxes , The jargon calls it “ Tax losses ”(tax loss harvesting) Trading strategies .

Take the United States for example , There is no tax on holding cryptocurrency , Only when it is sold will the taxable event be triggered . therefore , Other people think of borrowing , Realize the value of assets held in disguise . This is tax deferral (Tax deferment) Strategy . Of course , by comparison , This is a very unpopular tax saving method .

2. The game between the two sides of the debt : Consensus on the value of bitcoin

Due to the size and specific composition of the capital pool, it is extremely sensitive business intelligence , therefore Arcane Only based on public information , Estimate the performance of bitcoin as collateral in the lending market , Think mortgage lending , Bitcoin accounts for about half of the country ; By 2020 year Q4, There are about 42 Ten thousand bitcoins were pledged .

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From a rational point of view , Think about why the lending market can be so hot , Why can bitcoin play the role of collateral .

In Mathematics , All financial products , Whether it's stocks 、 bond 、 Futures contracts 、 option , Or real estate 、 Mortgage bonds , All can be reduced to some form of option .

Supporting behind , It is called the nine Yin manual classics by the investment circles. 、 It's a unique martial arts skill in the combination of sunflower Scripture and Wu Mu's suicide note : black — Scholes — Merton option pricing model (Black-Scholes-Merton Model).

From a mathematical point of view , Mortgage can be understood as a combination of call options and put options . Creditors are not just providing funds , It's selling a strange option : If the collateral price (St) rose , The debtor can use a lower price (L) Buy back collateral , The creditor must sell at this exercise price . If the collateral price falls , The debtor can use a higher price (L) Selling collateral , At this time, the creditor must use this exercise price to buy . therefore , Interest charged , It can be understood as the use cost of funds , It can also be understood as the insurance premium demanded by the option seller to provide convenience to the buyer .

Mortgage loan is mathematically equivalent to an exercise price, which is the loan principal L Of “ option ”, Substitute black — Scholes — Merton option pricing model , Solve second order homogeneous linear parabolic partial differential equations , Get is :

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In the figure L Is a ternary compound function , Is the price when the mortgage is regarded as a European put option , Corresponding to the formula in this paper 3.4 Medium P( It's bearish put Option prices ).Q The value of the collateral ,F Is the loan principal ,N Represents the cumulative probability distribution function of normally distributed variables .Log It's a natural logarithmic function ln The nonstandard way of writing . The rest will not be explained . source :Journal of Mathematical Finance Academic journals

If the loan market is regarded as a game between the buyer and the seller of exotic options , The best case , Of course, the price of collateral rises . Now , The borrower can take back the spot , Profit from spot appreciation ; The lender can also recover the principal and interest on schedule . Bitcoin is widely used in the lending market , In fact, it just means , Most professional players in the market , They still quite recognize the value of bitcoin .

To make a long story short , In the lending market , The most active are the large professional and institutional users in the mining circle and coin circle . Retail investors occasionally participate , But not the mainstream .

As far as miners are concerned , Because he is reluctant to sell his money , Mortgage bitcoin to borrow cash to maintain daily expenses , It's a good choice ; Occasional business needs , You need to buy mining machines in legal currency , You can also buy more means of production without selling money .

For large families , You can arbitrage for yourself , People can make a market , Bring liquidity . For retail investors , Foreign countries rely on the lending market to avoid taxes , In China, when the currency market is sideways, the loan funds enter the stock market , Or mortgage in exchange for BNB Wait for platform currency , Participate in IEO.

In the whole process , Bitcoin is giving play to the value of collateral , The lending market also undertakes the function of price discovery .

Four Decentralized market

Bitcoin's role as collateral , In the decentralized financial world, it is reflected in the mapping on other chains .

DeFiPulse I created an interesting indicator :“ Bitcoin at work ”(Bitcoin at Work), It means mapping to DeFi The number of bitcoins in the world .2018 in , Bitcoin at work is less than 1BTC; In the year to 8 End of month , This amount has reached 25.8 ten thousand BTC, The total lock volume is about 129.5 Billion dollars . The most obvious growth is 2020 and 2021 year .

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Data up to 2021 year 8 month 31 Japan , source :DeFiPulse

The most widely used is ERC-20 agreement ,DeFiPulse Classify them into four categories :

1. Hosting bitcoin (Custodial)

Place bitcoin in escrow with a third party , And generate vouchers , The price depends on the bitcoin in custody , And BTC The market is directly related to . The classic example is WBTC( Packaging bitcoin ), The issuer is BitGo, Is responsible for casting 、 redeem ( The destruction ) A centralized third-party entity . Once cast WBTC, The user can be in DeFi Free use on the platform ,BitGo In principle, there can be no intervention .HBTC( Fire coin bitcoin ) similarly .

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WBTC Can only be cast by a centralized entity , Individuals cannot make coins , But it can be in CEX and DEX transaction . The graph is Uniswap Trading data

2. Hybrid bitcoin (Hybrid)

Tokens are also supported by bitcoin , But the open source agreement is still in the transition from centralization to decentralization , The classic example is RENBTC. Sign in MetaMask, You can easily pass RenBridge, Transfer assets across chains .

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renBTC Allow personal coinage , The casting interface is very simple

3. Decentralized bitcoin (Decentralized)

Generate... In a fully decentralized protocol , The classic example is TBTC.

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TBTC The slogan is “ No pattern , Only believe in math ”, Bitcoin wallets outside the exchange need to be pledged or redeemed

4. Synthetic bitcoin (Synthetic)

Tracking the price of bitcoin , But it is not supported by bitcoin actually mortgaged , The classic example is SBTC. This is a DeFi One of the most difficult projects to understand : Users pledge platform currency SNX Not bitcoin ; After the pledge , Users are not creditors , Instead, he became a debtor ; Even if SBTC Rise in price , Users will also be unable to obtain net equity value due to debts owed .

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exchange Crypto.com Combed synthetic asset life cycle diagram

In terms of project positioning , Only managed 、 Hybrid and decentralized bitcoin really performs the function of bitcoin as collateral . Synthetic bitcoin is an alternative existence .

In terms of lock volume , Decentralized bitcoin, which has little to do with bitcoin , But entered the top four of the list .DeFi The bitcoin lock ranking on is usually stable : The first name is WBTC, At present, it accounts for... Of the bitcoin circulation on Ethereum 75.25%, Total breakthrough 19.45 ten thousand BTC. Followed by HBTC、RENBTC and SBTC.

The reason why so many people like to be on other chains “ reengineering ” The currency ”, Because the function of bitcoin chain itself is limited , There is no smart contract ecology on Ethereum and other chains . Bitcoin with a special prefix , Can be used for lending and other services . Bitcoin has become a kind of “ Stable currency ”, Function as collateral for anchored assets . The more you mortgage , The more special bitcoins are forged , The more you can tap the potential wealth value of bitcoin .

With WBTC For example , At present, the most widely used platform is still Compound,Maker and Curve.Balancer and Aave Our share is being Uniswap Instead, . As of press time ,Compound Still at the top of the list , super 17% Of WBTC All flow to this platform .

5、 ... and Back to reality :BTC How to embody the value of ? 

thus , We have traversed the derivatives market 、 Lending markets and DeFi, The role of bitcoin as collateral has been systematically recognized . It's not hard to see. , In financial markets , Especially in the capital market , Bitcoin now , And the future , Will have a wider application space . At least , As far as the track mentioned in this article is concerned , It was very successful .

We want to Arcane On the basis of the Research Report , Explore the next blockchain , And cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin , How far can we go ?

As mentioned at the beginning of the article , The bitcoin guarantee market is still small . Look around the world , The most commonly used collateral is government bonds , Mostly used for overnight loans . International Capital Markets Association (ICMA) Estimate , This global market can reach 15 Trillions of dollars , Daily turnover 3 Trillions of dollars . European market 80% Are guaranteed by government bonds , Two thirds of the US market is guaranteed by treasury bonds .

People are more exposed to Real estate mortgage . At the time of mortgage , The property itself becomes collateral , As the market is mostly optimistic about the rise in house prices , Therefore, acquiescence is also a safe means of storing value .Statista Statistics suggest that , The housing mortgage market in the United States has 16 Trillions of dollars . Of course , For enterprises , Stock goods 、 Plant and equipment can be used for physical mortgage . Take mining enterprises as an example , Mining machines can also be used as collateral .

gold It has a long history as a reserve asset , But after the collapse of the gold standard, its status declined a lot , Until after the economic crisis at the beginning of this century , People began to use gold as collateral again .2011 year , The European parliament agreed that the central counterparty would accept gold as collateral , Soon after, the third edition of the bassac agreement also defined gold as an asset . however , Gold controls still exist , The cost of cross-border transfer is high , Coupled with the lack of digital property rights records , This makes it difficult for this asset to become the number one collateral .

Of course , One of our most interesting questions , I'm afraid it's still : The currency , Can really be “ currency ” Do you ? Recently, El Salvador announced that bitcoin has become the legal tender of the country (legal tender), It has also triggered a great discussion in the international community .

Actually , As early as 2015 year , Warren, a visiting scholar at the Bank of Canada ·E· Webber (Warren E. Weber) From the perspective of coinage parity theory and gold delivery point , Looking back on the history of money , Answered this question .

1717 year , Newton set the price of gold at per troy ounce ( The purity is 0.9)3 pound 17 Shilling 10 also 1/2 Penny , Since then, the history of the gold standard has been opened . This Newton , Is to invent the law of universal gravitation 、 Scientists of the three classical laws of motion and calculus . so , Entire financial history , It's actually the history of science and Technology , I can't get around mathematics and Science .

But even so , The gold standard has not survived . More than two hundred years later ,1971 year , Nixon, then president of the United States, announced the disintegration of the Bretton Woods System , Declare the end of the gold exchange system . Before that , The world only pegs the dollar to gold ; After that , Global legal currency (fiat currency), No one has anything to do with gold .

Weber proposed :

“ Whether a monetary system can be established based on a cryptocurrency , And long-term maintenance ? actually , This coin , Not necessarily bitcoin . There are already too many cryptocurrencies , There will be more …… If there is such a coin , That should be directly linked to the monetary policy system .”

When England 1931 When the gold standard was abandoned in , Many people are celebrating that they finally broke free ‘ Golden fetters ’. If bitcoin becomes the world currency , Instead, it will bring cyclical economic crisis , Political pressure will Force central banks to abandon “ Bitcoin shackles ”, Reintroduce expansionary policies , Stimulate the economy with inflation 、 Rescue financial institutions in crisis . If the current 、 Dominated by the United States 、 There is no essential breakthrough in the macroeconomic management system established since the Great Depression , Bitcoin landing scene , Maybe it can only be limited to the financial field , It is difficult to expand to the real economy .

Member of the Chinese academy of social sciences 、 Professor Wang Xuegang of the school of Finance and economics of Renmin University of China also wrote an article about , Bitcoin itself lacks a value stabilization mechanism , In essence, it should become a financial instrument , Undertake financial transaction functions . at present , Bitcoin is most favored by investors in the international financial market and those in need of cross-border capital mobilization .

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Thai think tank Krungsri Research From easy valuation (valuation)、 Value preservation (store of value)、 Foreclosability (foreclosure)、 Mobility (liquidity) To assess the , Finally, I think land 、 negotiable securities 、 Gold is the safest , But it is also acknowledged that cryptocurrencies are not far from them —— As long as the value is more stable , Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin can also catch up with gold and real estate .

To make a long story short , The future is still to come .


Reference material

1.Banking on Bitcoin - The State of Bitcoin as Collateral

https://www.research.arcane.no/bitcoin-as-collateral

2.BitMEX Bitcoin Derivatives: Price Discovery, Informational Efficiency and Hedging Effectiveness

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3353583

3.Futures Guide

https://www.bitmex.com/app/futuresGuide#Mechanics-of-Futures-Markets

4.Understanding non-linear nature of inverse futures

https://futuresbit.com/understanding-non-linear-nature-of-inverse-futures/

5.What is Bitmex ETHUSD perpetual quanto swap contract?

https://futuresbit.com/what-is-bitmex-ethusd-perpetual-quanto-swap-contract/

6.Managing Bitcoin Futures Expiration: Rolling Forward

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-bitcoin/managing-bitcoin-futures-expiration-rolling-forward.html

7. Of the digital money lending market “ water ” How deep is ?

https://www.iyiou.com/analysis/20200121122489

8.The role of collateral in the modern banking world

https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/research-intelligence/ri-collateral-2021

9.The Role of Collateral in Credit Markets

http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2015.54027

10.A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/03/staff-working-paper-2016-14/ 

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