Mint Venture 2021-09-15 07:31:59 阅读数:521
author ：Ryan Watkins
translate & Editor's note ：Mint Ventures Xu Xiaopeng
The original title ：Speculation and The Smart Contract Wars
The intensive reading of good articles is Mint Ventures New content section launched , We will translate excellent overseas articles in the field of encryption , In this section, it is presented to readers .
meanwhile , We will also pass in the article “ Editor's note ” Annotation form , Explain some concepts , It is convenient for readers at different levels to understand . And our different views on the author's point of view , Will also “ Editor's note ” Form attached , Maybe it can help you look at the article from a more diverse point of view . In order to distinguish from the original , The editor used italics in typesetting according to parts .
I hope you like our attempt .
A quick look at the core ideas Editor's note ： This paper deeply expounds the bottom speculative logic of the new public chain that has erupted rapidly in recent months , namely ：1. The time window created by Ethereum congestion ;2. The head public chain has a trillion Level Valuation space in the long run ;3. Compared with the previous , At present, the new public chain has richer means of competition ;4. Winner take all may not be the end , Even if you can't surpass Ethereum , The top few in the industry will also enjoy huge valuation growth ;5. The war will not end soon , Even if there is a bubble , It may also be difficult to be falsified quickly . See the text for details .
“ This chain is not used at all . Compared with Ethereum , The valuation of this ghost chain is outrageous .”—— A comment on twitter
Sometimes people forget , The market is forward-looking . But before we delve into the valuation of smart contract platforms , Let's start with some background knowledge .
Editor's note ： Smart contract platform —— That is what we often call the public chain , Like Ethereum 、BSC、Solana.
Now , The smart contract platform has once again become the center of speculation , But this time it's a little different . It is different from the wave of speculation on the smart contract platform in the previous cycle , Today, smart contract platform is no longer just a “ World computer ” Ideas , They are created by the user 、 An active ecosystem of capital and Applications , Together, it has promoted trillions of dollars in economic activities . Ethereum is a leader in this area , Now more than 7000 $billion in assets , Quarterly trading volume exceeds 2.5 Trillions of dollars , And running thousands of decentralized applications . In return , In recent months, the market value of Ethereum has reached 4500 US $billion record .
But in this rush , Ethereum is not alone .
As Ethereum is at a critical point in its capacity expansion roadmap , Its performance has been struggling in the face of growing user demand , This opens a window of opportunity for other public chains . With the promise of scalability , The competitors of the smart contract platform began to take positive action , Through the optimization of user experience and various incentive policies , Attract users to their own chain . With the of Ethereum gas Costs continue to soar , The activity of these competitors in the chain has increased significantly . It is as expected , As Ethereum's dominant position is challenged and questioned , Speculators are buying tokens of these competitive platforms .
The market value proportion of the public chain platform is changing
However, as many people have pointed out , Price movements do not always represent value , Even if the activity of Ethereum competitors increases significantly , Compared with Ethereum , They are still only a small part . So small that you start to doubt ： Are the valuations of these public chains reasonable ？ Why is the market value of some competitors' tokens a double-digit percentage of Ethereum , But its relative active percentage is only a single digit ？
Editor's note ： The active behavior mentioned here （ The original for activity） More refers to the amount of funds and activities applied on the chain , Not an active address 、 Number of transfers and other active indicators . otherwise BSC Number of active addresses 、 The number of transfers has been much higher than Ethereum ,Polygon The number of transfers is also higher than Ethereum .
Public chained TVL Trends
First , At present, there is no consistent valuation model for the smart contract platform . The native tokens of these platforms have multiple internal attributes , Make them different from any assets that existed before . In many ways , They are similar to money , Because they are the main value storage means and trading medium in their economic ecology . In other ways , They're like equity , Because investors have demands on the fees they earn from dealing with transactions . There are still some aspects , They are like commodities , Because they are necessary resources for the operation and calculation of smart contracts on the chain . This combination of internal attributes makes them surpass the value of three types of traditional assets , And provide a variety of internal driving forces for their valuation rise . But it also makes them extremely difficult to value , Especially considering that these projects are still at an early stage , Facing an uncertain future .
For all that , Investors are still trying to combine quantitative and qualitative approaches , Absolute and relative valuations of these assets . They agree on one thing ： No matter which smart contract platform wins , It will be worth a lot of money （ Trillions of dollars ）.
The internal value triangle of public chain tokens
At the most basic level , Investors evaluate assets based on two things ： Fundamentals and willingness to invest .
Fundamentals usually involve quantitative factors （KPIs）： For example, lock in the total value 、 Transfer amount and expenses ; Qualitative factors include ： competitive edge 、 Developer interests and community level . Evaluation of these fundamental elements , On the one hand, it is based on the past history , On the other hand, on the basis of looking forward , Make predictions about potential . Historical expression provides a sense of where things come from , Future performance provides a sense of where things may go . The market always looks forward , The future value that the asset will create is the core driving force driving its valuation .
Editor's note ：KPIs yes Key Performance Indication Abbreviation , It is the core evaluation standard for the performance of a system or person .
Investment intention also involves quantitative and qualitative dimensions . It determines what investors are willing to do for the future “X” How much will the fundamentals pay in . It's more like an art than a science , And subject to the price of the reference asset （ Relative valuation ）、 Macroeconomic conditions 、 Market sentiment 、 narrative 、 Meme （ Great influence ） And so on .
So how should these be applied to the investment of smart contract platform ？
Remember the comment I quoted at the beginning about the smart contract platform ？
“ This chain is not used at all . Compared with Ethereum , The valuation of this ghost chain is outrageous .” A comment on twitter said .
ok , The reason why this sentence is wrong , Because, as we said earlier , The market is looking forward, not backward . Speculators did not value Ethereum's competitors based on their current fundamentals , They are based on the fundamentals they may have in the future .
If we take TaiFang as a reference , Then the fundamentals will change very quickly .18 Months ago , Ethereum settles less than... Transactions every day 10 Billion dollars , Less than... Assets are stored 200 Billion dollars , And it only runs hundreds of applications with active users （ If the user is true ）.18 After a month , In the birth of breakthrough applications 、 Growth driven by incentives and supported by one of the strongest bull markets in the industry's history , Ethereum's ecosystem has grown by nearly two orders of magnitude . Can Ethereum's competitors in the future 18 Replicate this growth within months ？ It can even grow faster ？ This is what smart contract speculators are betting on .
With the main network of all major smart contract platforms online , The application ecosystem began to develop on each platform , And build a bridge between them , The smart contract war has entered a new stage . There is no need to repeat the competitive intention between platforms , For the user 、 developer 、 The competition for funds is in full swing .
Given Ethereum's leading edge for many years and its often boasted developer network effect , It's not easy to compete for attention from Ethereum , But competitors are implementing various innovative strategies to achieve this goal . In some cases , Including the introduction of a large number of liquidity mining incentives , To motivate users to try their platform , And try to copy Ethereum 2020 year “DeFi Summer of the year ” The success of the . In other cases , The public chain project provides subsidies for developers , To help their applications attract liquidity . In other ways , It is reaching out to the developer community outside the encryption world , Hold a hacker Marathon , And provide donation funds for builders . In all these examples , Public chains are aggressively pursuing growth . The window of opportunity is still open , Although Ethereum has also launched its combined solution for capacity expansion .
Ask again , Why is all this important ？
Uncertainty brings opportunities , Opportunity brings speculation . As the smart contract war begins to enter the next stage , Competitors are taking risks to compete for market share from Ethereum 、 The future of the industry and the market value of trillions of dollars , under these circumstances , It's not surprising how wild valuations in the field of smart contracts seem . And this is the case , It may not disappear soon .
We have been living in a multi chain world for some time , Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two leading forces in this industry . With the emergence of various blockchains in the whole industry , Is there room for a third force ？ Maybe there's a fourth or fifth ？ Or say , Whether Ethereum can defeat all other public chains , It can even replace bitcoin , Take away the position of value storage that occupies the core of the industry ？ The answer depends on the final specialization of the blockchain , And the extent to which the dominant public chain finally covers the blockchain scene .
This answer , It will have a significant impact on how trillions of dollars of cake will eventually be distributed among the leading public chains . Encryption economy composed of a few dominant public chains , With what we have today 5 The market value of a home exceeds 1 Trillion dollar technology companies （ Apple 、 Amazon 、 Microsoft 、 Google 、Facebook） The world is no different . Maybe this model is also applicable to blockchain , Because on the one hand, they continue to become easier to combine with each other , On the other hand, under the balance , Designed many functions that are not available in other chains . We may eventually find that these common chains together create more value than they create alone . If this is indeed the direction of the future , Then there are amazing opportunities among Ethereum's competitors , This provides a better reason for the industry to attract so much speculation ： A competitor may not only replace Ethereum as the first , And there may be enough space , To get more than one public chain to the top .
For the rest of this bull market , Ethereum's valuation may continue to be a valuation magnet for competitors —— A changing reference market value , That is, the value of becoming the first smart contract platform in the industry . Competitors will continue to price Ethereum based on their absolute and relative growth prospects . Again , As the market continues to heat up and popularity rises , Investors may continue to be willing to pay more for this growth .
Ethereum may continue to maintain its leading position , And everyone else is chasing . It may continue to be the base of all grassroots innovation . Continue to be DeFi and NFT The birthplace of . It may be the first public chain to attract institutional participation at the application level . It may be the first to rely on the integration of exchanges and brokers , Large scale reach C End user projects . In all these areas , Ethereum relies on its large and diverse developer community 、 Proven protocols and a vibrant user community , Will continue to be ahead of competitors .
But its competitors will go hand in hand . As long as the market is growing , As long as the trillions of dollars of opportunity still exist , Speculation will continue to be active in the core area of smart contracts .
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