Sometimes people forget that the market is forward-looking . But in our in-depth studyBefore platform valuation , Get some background knowledge first .
today , The smart contract platform has once again become the center of speculation , But this time it's different . Different from the previous cycle , Smart contract platform is no longer just the idea of world computers , They are created by the user 、 An active ecosystem of capital and Applications , Together, it has promoted trillions of dollars in economic activities . The etheric fang Take the lead in this regard , Now more than 7000 $billion in assets , Quarterly trading volume exceeds 2.5 Trillions of dollars , And hosted thousands of applications . In recent months , The market value of Ethereum has reached 4500 US $billion record , So this growth has paid off handsomely .
But in this surge , Ethereum is not alone .
As Ethereum is at a critical stage of its expansion roadmap , And strive to support the growing needs of users , The window of opportunity has opened . With the promise of scalability now , Smart contract platform competitors have actively promoted attracting users to their own chain , In order to provide UX Improvements and incentives . With Ethereum gas Prices continue to soar , The activities of these products in these chains have increased significantly in the past few months . It is as expected , As Ethereum's dominance is questioned , Speculators poured into the corresponding tokens of these platforms .
However , As many people point out , Price movements do not always represent value , Even if the activity of Ethereum competitors increases significantly , It is still only a small part of Ethereum activities . As small as you start asking if these valuations are reasonable ？ Why are some competitors worth double-digit percentages of Ethereum , But other competitors have only single digits ？
This involves exploring the valuation of speculation and smart contract platforms .
The valuation 101
First , There is no agreed framework for the valuation of smart contract platform . The native assets of these platforms provide a unique combination of attributes , Make them different from any assets that existed before . in many ways , They are like money , Because they are the main means of storing value and trading currency in their economy . in many ways , They're like equity , Because they have made demands on the fees earned by dealing with the exchange . in many ways , They are like commodities , Because they provide access to computing . This combination provides them with the attributes of all three asset superclasses , And provide them with multiple attributes that drive value . This also makes them extremely difficult to value , Especially considering that these projects are still at an early stage , Facing an uncertain future .
Investors are still trying their best to make absolute and relative valuations of these assets , Apply various fuzzy quantitative and qualitative measures . however , One thing they all agree on is , No matter which smart contract platform wins , It will be worth a lot of money （ Trillions of dollars ）.
At the most basic level , Investors evaluate assets based on two things ： Fundamentals and willingness to pay .
Fundamentals usually involve quantitative factors （KPI）, For example, lock in the total value 、 Transaction volume and transaction costs , In addition, there is competitiveness 、 Qualitative factors such as developer interest and community . These fundamentals are based on backward evaluation to understand historical performance , And evaluate on a forward-looking basis to understand potential future performance . Historical expression provides a sense of where things come from , Future performance provides a sense of where things may go . The market is always forward-looking , The future value that assets will create is the driving force of valuation .
Willingness to pay also involves quantitative and qualitative factors . It determines what investors are willing to do for the future “X” How much will the fundamentals pay in . It's more like an art than a science , And subject to comparability （ Relative valuation ）、 Macroeconomic conditions 、 Market sentiment 、 narrative 、 Meme （ serious ） And so on .
So how does this apply to the smart contract platform ？
Remember the main quote about the smart contract platform ？
“ No one is using it . And ETH comparison , The value of this ghost chain can't be so high .” – Overheard on twitter
ok , The reason why this sentence is wrong , Because, as we know now , The market is looking forward, not backward . In this snapshot , Speculators did not timely evaluate Ethereum's competitors based on their fundamentals , They are assessing their fundamentals , Because they may waver in the future .
If Ethereum is some kind of guide , Then the fundamentals may change very quickly .18 Months ago , Ethereum settles less than... Transactions every day 10 Billion dollars , Less than... Assets are stored 200 Billion dollars , And hosting only hundreds of applications with any activity （ If any ）.18 After a month , In breakthrough applications 、 Supported by incentive driven growth and one of the strongest bull markets in the industry's history , The ecosystem has grown by nearly two orders of magnitude . Can Ethereum's competitors in the future 18 Replicate this growth within months ？ Can they even grow faster ？ This is the bet of smart contract speculators .
Start and end
As all major smart contract platforms enter the main network, they are enabled , The application ecosystem began to develop on each platform , And build a bridge between them , The smart contract war has entered a new stage . There is no need to theorize the competitiveness of one platform relative to another ; user 、 developer 、 The competition for funds is in full swing .
Given Ethereum's leading edge for many years and its often boasted developer network effect , It's not easy to win interest in Ethereum , But competitors are implementing various innovative strategies to achieve this goal . In some cases , This includes the introduction of a large number of liquidity mining incentives , To motivate users to try their platform and 2020 Copy Ethereum DeFi Summer success . In other cases , Developers motivate teams to attract mobility for their applications . In other ways , It's reaching out to the developer community beyond encryption , Hold a hacker Marathon , And provide grant funds for builders . In all cases , It is actively pursuing growth , At the same time, the window of opportunity is open , Ethereum has launched its extended solution suite .
that , Why is all this important ？
Uncertainty brings opportunities , Opportunity brings speculation . As the smart contract war begins to enter the next stage , Competitors get share from Ethereum , And the future and potential trillions of dollars of risk in the industry , It is not surprising that speculation in the field of smart contracts is rampant . And speculation may not disappear soon .
Winner takes all ？
We have been living in a multi chain world for some time , The currency And Ethereum are the two leading forces in this industry . With the emergence of various blockchains in the whole industry , Is there room for a third dominant force ？ Maybe there's a fourth or fifth ？ contrary , Ethereum may not only be enough to defeat all other smart contract platforms , And can it replace bitcoin as the industry's leading value storage ？ The answer ultimately depends on the final degree of specialization of the blockchain and becoming a dominant smart contract platform , Provide services for most use cases of blockchain .
This answer has a significant impact on how trillions of dollars of cake will eventually be shared among leading blockchains . The encryption economy with a few dominant blockchains is similar to what we have today 5 The market value of a home exceeds 1 Trillion dollar technology companies （ Apple 、 Amazon 、 Microsoft 、 Google 、Facebook） The world is no different . Maybe this model is also applicable to blockchain , Because they are continuing to become more combined with each other , And many provide functions that are not available on other chains due to design tradeoffs . We may eventually find that these chains create more value together than they create alone . If this is really the way forward , So there are incredible opportunities among Ethereum's competitors , This provides more reasons for the industry to attract so much speculation . A competitor may not only replace Ethereum as the first , And there may be room for more than one person to top the list .
Ethereum is like a magnet
For the rest of this bull market , Ethereum's valuation may continue to be a magnet for competitive smart contract platforms —— A changing target pricing has become the value of the industry's first smart contract platform . Competitors will continue to price against Ethereum based on their absolute and relative growth prospects . Again , As the market continues to heat up and popularity rises , Investors may continue to be willing to pay more for this growth .
Ethereum may continue to be the dominant platform , Everyone else is chasing . It may continue to be the base of all grassroots innovation . Continue to be DeFi and NFT The birthplace of . It may be the first to attract institutional participation at the application level . It may be the first company to achieve large-scale retail adoption through the integration of exchanges and brokers . In all these areas , Ethereum relies on its large and diverse developer community 、 Proven agreements and vibrant communities , Will continue to have an advantage over competitors .
But its competitors will continue to move forward in parallel . As long as the pie is growing and there are trillions of dollars in risk , Speculation will continue to be the core of the field of smart contracts .
Special thanks Wilson Withiam and Daniel Cheung Review and input to this article
original text ：Messari
author ：Ryan Watkins
To view more
This article is issued by qucoin.com , Opinions only represent the author , In no way does qucoin agree with its views or confirm its description . Part of the text / picture / video / Audio comes from the network , If it infringes upon the rights of the copyright owner , Please contact us （ WeChat /QQ:1074760229）. This article is not used as investment and financial advice . Reprint please indicate the source ： Qu coin network