writing ：Fiona He,A&T Capital Investment manager
compile ：Perry Wang
The original title ：《 Point of view ：The rising wheel of history is unstoppable 》
- The issuance of tokens has accelerated the replacement process of centralized derivatives , In derivatives /CEX The trading volume ratio has increased significantly . In my submission DEX The trading volume is at least 20 Double the growth potential , Because derivatives should be traded with spot DEX / CEX Same ratio .
- It is the most popular decentralized derivative at present , Just like in the field of centralization , today （9 month 1 Japan ） The cumulative trading volume of decentralized perpetual contracts is 470 Billion dollars , Is the cumulative trading volume of options 921 times , The latter is more suitable for highly skilled gamblers to hedge .
- I simplified two liquidity models for Derivatives ：「 Point to pool /Peer to Pool」（Perpetual Protocol、 etc. ） or 「 Point to point /Peer to Peer」（dYdX etc. ）. The first allows derivatives to be traded freely , Low liquidity requirements ; But the latter platform is less risky , High leverage tolerance , There are many types of orders （ Fortunately, ,Uniswap V3 In fact, it makes limit orders and more order types possible .）
- I like vAMM Design ！vAMM For price generation only , At the same time, separate the liquidity pool , To reduce the collateral's impermanent loss . And AMM Design （ for example Uniswap） Different , Single token pledge （Staking） Hedge investors' positions , It alleviates the loss of profits of the pledgor . and Uniswap The pledgor has to bear all the profit losses of its position , Because they are also counterparties to pledged token pairs .
- In my submission , Use 「 Point to pool 」 Designed perpetual contract project , for example Perpetual Protocol, yes Synthetix Improved version , Have a better UIUX And higher capital efficiency .
- I defined a fully diluted valuation （FDV）/ Annualized estimated revenue （APR） ratio , In order to predict dYdX Of FDV about 114.51 Billion dollars . Whereas dYdX The total supply of tokens is 1,000,000,000, Every dYdX The price of the token should be about 11.45 dollar . Interestingly , This estimate is valid , Its estimate is not far from reality ： By 2021 year 9 month 1 Japan ,Perpetual Protocol Estimation FDV by 28.01 Billion dollars , The actual market value is about 30.1 Billion dollars .
Driven by macro factors ： ( If you already know very well DEX Is the general trend of the future , Please skip this section !)
- Centralized derivatives trading is facing more and more strict supervision . Coin security recently closed in Hong Kong 、 Germany 、 Derivatives trading products in Italy and the Netherlands .BitMEX It was once the world's largest derivatives exchange , Recently asked to pay 1 $100 million fine , With the commodity futures trading commission （CFTC） And the U.S. Treasury Department's financial crime enforcement network （FinCEN） A settlement . Traders in more regions are turning to decentralized derivatives .
- CEX Too strong , Lack of innovation . Due to hosting user assets , And exclusive access to transaction data , We've seen a lot of things like suspending withdrawals 、 frozen 、 Shut down, etc 「 emergency 」. What's worse is , CEX Possible misuse of transaction data .Robinhood Previously, it was accused that its main business model was to sell customer orders to high-frequency dealers , So benefit from divulging customer information . It is difficult for a centralized platform to win the trust of users .
- The first 2 layer （Layer 2） Empowering DEX Improve ability .8 month ,dYdX The trading volume of is 3 In the 55 times 2, And its Layer 2 The perpetual contract is in 4 Month on line . Perpetual Protocol Soon launch V2,Curie land Arbitrum layer 2 The Internet ,Futureswap Of V3 Will also log in .DEX It is expected to replace CEX.
Two internal signals show
Among all derivatives in this field , Perpetual contracts are by far the most popular 、 The most traded products . They are developed on the basis of futures delivery without maturity . therefore , It is characterized by the capital interest rate mechanism , To prevent the price from deviating from the spot price , Avoid becoming a pure gambling tool .
DEX / CEX ratio
2021 In the first quarter of, the transaction volume of centralized perpetual contracts exceeded 143 Trillions of dollars . And at the same time , Decentralized perpetual contracts have produced 704 Billion dollars of trading volume , Accounting for% of centralized trading volume 0.05%. At present, decentralized perpetual contracts account for... Of the monthly trading volume of centralized perpetual contracts 0.5%5, It's the first quarter 10 times .
In the spot market , The number is 10%6. This means that even if centralized derivatives do not grow , Decentralized derivatives trading volume will still grow at least 20 times .
Token issue effect
I personally believe , Leading projects issue platform tokens , It has a great pulling effect on the whole industry . The figure below shows the derivatives leader dYdX And spot faucets Uniswap The impact of platform tokens on centralized exchanges before and after issuance . It can be seen that ,UNI After issue , The spot DEX/CEX The ratio jumped to 20%, I never came back to 2020 year 8 The level before the month （ At that time, there were rumors of token issuance before and after the last round of financing ）.
Which are the best investment targets ？
In this article, I only discuss ： A perpetual contract with linear profit and loss 、 With convex profit and loss （convex P&L） Options for , And synthetic assets with irregular profits and losses .
Have 470 Perpetual contracts with a cumulative turnover of $billion prove to be the most popular crypto derivatives , This figure is the of the cumulative trading volume of options 92 times , Options are suitable for professionals to hedge . however , Several projects are trying to bring crypto options into the eyes of mainstream investors .Shield Official Testing simple sustainability for general users / Permanent option products .
Synthetic assets are interesting . But unfortunately , They are not as easy to understand and trade as perpetual contracts , Some of them offer a wide range of innovative products . for example ,UMA One of the most popular products in the world is Yield Dollar, Locked up about 3600 Thousands of dollars 7 The assets of the , Similar to zero coupon bonds （ Fixed interest rates / Yield ）.
- 「 Point to pool 」 It means that the counterparty of the trader is usually an asset pool or pledgor . for example , If you are in Perpetual Protocol V1 Pledge PERP, You are actually the counterparty of these traders . You take the risk , It's because you've got something in return （ The return comes from transaction costs and token inflation ）. They even created a virtual AMM To reduce the price fluctuation faced by the pledgor , To reduce the loss of impermanence . The purpose is to make the pledgor dare to pledge , To expand liquidity . This is important ： Imagine that there is only one trader in this system , If he makes the right bet , Who should pay him ？ Now we know why Perpetual Protocol So you can only have 10 Times the lever , And why it has an emergency shutdown function . For these derivatives platforms , Risk control is very important , To prevent a net negative position .
- 「 Point to point 」 A trader's counterparty is usually another trader or market maker . for example ,dYdX There is an order book , This is the symbol of matching market making . in other words , And Perpetual Protocol Different , Ideally ,dYdX Not involved in anyone's transaction . So we really see dYdX Can tolerate up to 25 Times the lever .
I believe that in the near future , Both need to be .「 Point to pool 」 Shows the capacity of long tail assets with low liquidity . It can even allow users to freely put token derivatives on the shelves in the future , May be in Perpetual Of Curie The first mock exam is in this version. . meanwhile ,「 Point to point 」 Similar offers CEX Experience , For example, various types of orders , by comparison , Perpetual Protocol V1 Only market orders . But I did see Uniswap V3 Designed solutions , Among them, limit order and more order types are possible .
The evolution of derivatives
I personally think ,「 Point to pool 」 Of Perpetual yes Synthetix Improved version . Yes 3 One reason ：a) When you can easily from Perpetuals When obtaining cryptocurrency exposure , Why use more complex systems ; b) at present ,Synthetix Up close 90%9 The underlying asset of synthetic assets is encrypted synthetic tokens , This means that the demand for real-world assets is not mature . Besides , Perpetual contracts also apply to real-world asset derivatives ; c) The margin mechanism is well used , It shows higher capital efficiency than mortgage , for example Synthetix The liquidation rate is 200% , and Perpetual Protocol The liquidation rate is 2.5%.
The future price is high ？
I analyzed the current stock DEX Indicators of , And a useful coefficient for further valuation prediction ：「FDV / APR」（ Fully diluted valuation / Annualized estimated revenue ）.
Will be in stock DEX Of FDV / APR The median is multiplied by the derivative APR, My estimate is ： dYdX Of FDV about 114.51 Billion dollars , and Perpetual Protocol Of FDV about 28.01 Billion dollars .
Whereas dYdX The total supply of tokens is 1,000,000,000, The price of each token should be about 11.45 dollar .
Interestingly , The estimated figures are not far from reality ： By 2021 year 9 month 1 Japan ,Perpetual Protocol Of FDV about 30.1 Billion dollars .
Special thanks MapleLeafCap, Jeff Ng, Jinze, 0xminion, Nicola Santoni, Charles, Leo Yeung as well as A&T Capital Wonderful suggestions from the team / Comments and support !
appendix : Comparison of the two derivatives
(all the data captured as of August 31, 2021)
(1) Accumulative Vol:
Perpetuals US$46.8B [dYdX: US$17.5B fromdYdX metabase metrics; Perpetual Protocol: US$25.1B fromDune Analytics @yenwen / Perpetual Protocol; Futureswap: US$4.2B fromfutureswap.com.]
Synthetics US$9.4B [Synthetix: US$9.4B fromstats.synthetix.io; UMA: no transaction data, TVL is US$144M fromprojects.umaproject; Mirror Finance: ~US$13.9M from the most traded assets onmirror.finance;]
Options US$507M [Hegic: US$492M fromhegic.co; Opyn: US$15M fromDune Analytics @loren / Opyn v2.]
(2) Our calculation is based on data from CoinGecko.
(4) Our calculation includes the volume of dYdX, Perpetual Protocol, and Futureswap sourcing from CoinGecko and Dune Analytics.
(5) Our calculation includes the volume of dYdX, Perpetual Protocol, and Binance Futures, Huobi Futures, OKEx Futures, FTX derivatives, Bybit Futures. Data source from CoinGecko.
(6) I ignore the Sept figure for incomplete data.
(8) Fundraising Amount:
Perpetuals US$97.4M [dYdX: US$87M; Perpetual Protocol: US$1.8M; Futureswap: US$1.6M; MCDEx: US$7M; from multi-sources including Crunchbase.]
Synthetics US$55.7M [Synthetix: US$46.1M; UMA: 4.6M if estimate IDO raised $2M; Duet Protocol: US$3M;]
Options US$26.1M [Hegic: ~US$12M on ICBO; Opyn: US$9.1M; Primitive: US$3M; Shield: US$2M; from multi-sources, including Crunchbase.]
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