What did Buffett miss in the valuation of digital assets?

Fun coin 2021-08-07 11:52:17 阅读数:490

buffett miss valuation digital assets


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Do digital assets have intrinsic value ? Some people think that , Digital assets have no intrinsic value , Because they are not tied to cash flow like traditional companies . essentially , Digital assets are a postmodern investment category , Its value is only related to the speculative value of others . in other words , The only use of digital assets is speculation .

If you use the standard of traditional neoclassical Finance —— Benjamin • Graham (Benjamin Graham) And Warren • buffett (Warren Buffett) Valuation theory —— To measure digital assets , It seems to be right . as everyone knows , Buffett failed to invest in early technology companies , Because they lack “ Basic value ”.

The problem in discovering the intrinsic value of digital assets is , For the intrinsic value of general digital media , At present, there is no recognized standard . Only know this , We can understand the intrinsic value of digital assets . This is the problem to be solved in this paper .

Even digital media companies that have risen successfully after the Internet boom , There have also been serious inefficiencies and coordination failures , Include : Monopoly concentration 、 review 、 Privacy concerns 、 Social division and polarization , And mental and physical health problems caused by Gamification and addiction .

These are economic inefficiencies and cultural problems that need to be solved , And provides opportunities for economic and social benefits . Despite the great success of large technology companies , But the core problem of their basic value has not been solved .

Let's consider Benjamin • Graham / warren • Buffett's fundamental valuation model . Essentially , It said :

Low price / High cash flow = Good basic value investment

Basically, it can be assumed that ,

Low price = Inefficient aggregation of public information

High cash flow = High customer demand / Low product supply

Now? , Let's think about : Why does digital media not conform to this basic valuation model ?

The product of digital media is data , Huge amount of data . Data is valuable only when the supply is limited . However, the current basic valuation model does not distinguish between valuable data and opposite data ( Nor does the efficient market hypothesis ). therefore , For what is valuable data , There is no consensus in the economic community .

The implicit consensus is , Valuable data is defined by market prices . But that doesn't make sense , Because price is only a small part of all valuable data . Valuable data must also include human natural communication that makes market activities possible . If the price is only a small part of valuable data , So it determines what is valuable, which is a cycle , If it's not ridiculous .

Valuable data is the first condition for price coordination . Because we haven't reached a consensus on what this means , We can't understand how data is limited in terms of Supply , Therefore, the price mechanism cannot coordinate production activities .

This may explain why since the dominance of digital media , Our economy and culture have always been so confusing ; We are still trying to use the price mechanism to coordinate the production of valuable data , Although valuable data is the cause of price coordination .

Google 、Facebook、Twitter all “ produce ” Valuable data to sell . But the valuable data they sell is actually created by their users through a lot of unpaid communication labor . People chat online , Technology companies charge rent , Earn free profits . In this economy , The actual content of the data is not important , Only price or its quantitative agent ; therefore , Prices or their proxies will stimulate the generation of worthless data .

Now? , With digital assets , user 、 Platforms and end products ( Valuable data ) The difference disappears . Users are owners and marketers . In this economy , The content or value of communication data is very important . The value of digital assets depends on the engineering of the platform 、 Design and community decision making . let me put it another way , Digital assets represent a platform specific form of communication data .

stay 1937 Year of 《 The nature of the enterprise 》 In a Book , Ronald · Coase emphasized two forms of coordination recognized by economists : Price coordination and internal coordination within the enterprise . He asked , Why isn't everything organized by the price mechanism ? Why do companies exist ? And he said , There is a cost to using the price mechanism . in many instances , Lower cost of internal coordination , More efficient .

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