According to Peng Bo , Cryptocurrency market from 6 It will return to the upward trend from the beginning of this month , The market value of Ethereum is expected to surpass that of bitcoin .
Original title ：《 A long report from Pember ： bull market 6 The moon wakes up , Bitcoin is up to 10 Thousands of dollars , The dollar dominates the digital world 》
writing ：Mike McGlone, Bloomberg BI Senior commodity strategy analyst
compile ：Mary Liu
The next step in bitcoin ：2 Ten thousand dollars or 10 Thousands of dollars ？
The trend is upward .
We think ,4 About $10000 may be the upper price limit for the rest period of the crypto bull market . Ethereum, which ranks second, is rapidly moving towards the position of No.1 in market value , And it's always been 2021 The main driving force behind the year's Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index . Bitcoin is more likely to break through the resistance and rise to 100,000 dollar , Instead of falling into 20,000 Below US dollar .
The currency 「 Break time 」：3 Ten thousand dollars to 4 Thousands of dollars .
As we can see , The Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index (BGCI) It indicates that from 6 The bull market that starts in May will start with bitcoin discount .
Bitcoin has gone from 2021 The peak of the year was about 50%, And it seems to be building about 30,000 The bottom of the dollar supports . The level is close to last year's closing price and 12 Monthly moving average .BGCI stay 2021 It went up about 130%, And 5 Arrived at the beginning of the month 250% Compared with the peak above , There has also been a near 50% The callback . A lot of excessive speculation has been eliminated , The fundamentals of bitcoin are intact .
The market value of Ethereum is expected to surpass that of bitcoin .
The benefits of diversity need to be emphasized , Especially in emerging asset classes like cryptocurrency . The longer-term trend seems to be that Ethereum will gain more market share than bitcoin . Both have a bullish base , However, the foundation and use cases of Ethereum are a powerful supplement to the more macro value storage properties of the special currency . The chart below depicts trading volume as a leading indicator of Ethereum's development , In terms of market value , Ethereum has reached the level of bitcoin 50%. from 2021 Beginning of the year ,ETH Of 10 The average daily trading volume doubled , To reach bitcoin's 80%.（Coinmarketcap）
The currency 、 Ethereum's macroeconomic base is improving .
Bitcoin and Ethereum may have unique timing advantages . If economic rules apply , Reduced supply, historically low interest rates and massive capital injection systems form a solid foundation for the appreciation of crypto asset prices . Adoption is still in its early stages , But it's the key , Bitcoin seems to have won the game , Tesla's distribution of part of its equity wealth to digital assets is proof .
The figure below depicts to 2025 Bitcoin's annual mining supply fell to 1% following VS U.S. debt is growing rapidly .
Usually , This background is ideal for pushing up the dollar price of gold , But the old world's reserve assets are being replaced by digital upstarts . We see little to stop this trend and expect it to accelerate .
10,000 A cryptocurrency consolidates the foundation of Ethereum .Coinmarketcap The number of encryption assets listed above is increasing , It's the main foundation of the token, the wind of Ethereum .
The figure below depicts how to achieve 10,000 A milestone in the number of tradable cryptocurrencies , Many of them are built on the Ethereum blockchain . Compared to about half the number a year ago , A large number of encrypted currencies may indicate oversupply and excessive bubbles , But Ethereum is still at the top of the cryptocurrency gold rush .
According to the chart ,ETH It looks low at the moment , But we see the number of tradable cryptocurrencies as a general guide to the market . The etheric fang 5 The trading range for the month is slightly higher than 4,000 The dollar is slightly below 2,000 dollar , Key supports and resistances may be set over time , The upward trend is still the general trend .
The United States won the digital cold war
The digital cold war between the United States and China is as good as the victory of the Yankees . In a new cold war , China has suppressed bitcoin's new technology and currency's open source code digitization , We expect the United States to embrace it . Through proper regulation , The thing that's hardly going to screw up is the increased dominance of the dollar , Just like the most widely traded encryption asset in the world ——Tether As it turns out . We believe that , encryption ETF It's just a matter of time .
Money digitization is here ： The dollar is the king . It's the organic adoption of digital assets , And the dollar as the main currency , Make our prejudices more similar , In particular, the price of encryption assets has risen . Although U.S. debt and GDP The ratio is rising rapidly and quantitative easing policy , But the broad trade weighted dollar is 10 It's up about 30%, And the yuan is the most heavily weighted currency in the index .
The figure below shows that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remains roughly unchanged during the same period Tether The parabola market value rise juxtaposes .
Although the United States is global GDP The share of the market is declining , but Tether It has become the most widely traded encryption asset in the world , This fact is no different from the direction of things —— The dollar dominates the digital world .
American bitcoin ETF It's just a matter of time . As we can see , The US is very likely to adopt technology and properly regulate cryptocurrency , Thus in 2021 Year opened the door for bitcoin exchange traded funds . Crypto assets emphasize authoritarianism like China 、 The shortcomings of the central planned economy , Lack of free flow of capital and public discourse . in consideration of Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT),SEC There is no point in continuing to oppose futures based products traded on bitcoin exchanges .
Chart display , Encrypted Futures 30 The average daily trading volume is 26 Billion dollars , And wheat futures 200 The average daily trading volume has stabilized at 40 Less than US $100 million . There is little to stop bitcoin futures trading more dollars per day than wheat .
high Beta Bitcoin's advantage over stocks ？
When bitcoin is 5 month 19 When the sun falls sharply , Almost every market in the world has proved the importance of bitcoin . As we can see , Compared with the stock market , The advantages of cryptocurrency are emerging . The rise in the stock market should remain high Beta The rise of bitcoin , But if the stock market falls , More stimulus will boost the base of digital reserve assets .
Most assets are increasingly dependent on rising share prices for support , But bitcoin could be an exception . The graph depicts a relatively high 12 The beta coefficient of bitcoin to stocks in the past three months is about 2 times , lower than 2013 The annual peak is about 16 times .
encryption Top 3: The currency 、 The etheric fang 、Tether
Only at low tide , You know who's swimming naked , And bitcoin 、 Ethereum and Tether All dressed 「 clothes 」, And in the top three position in the encryption market . Bitcoin is a digital reserve asset , Ethereum is the main ecosystem builder , and Tether （ An Ethereum token ） It represents a rapid move towards a digital world supported by the dominance of the US dollar .Tether One of the most consistent trends in the digital world is to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value .
The currency 、 The etheric fang 、Tether—— Determined survivors . Consistent strength and performance deserve respect , That's how we look at Tether Currency digitization represented by . Despite the controversy and regulatory crackdown , But the rising market value of the world's benchmark dollar token has been a continuous indicator of the growing digital asset ecosystem . The picture below depicts 6 At the beginning of Coinmarketcap The top three encryption assets in the world ： The currency 、 Ethereum and Tether.
Although most encryption assets have fallen , but Tether stay 2018 He gained an important position in , At that time, its market value and trading volume were still rising . The adoption of digital dollars is surging , The dollar token based on Ethereum has entered the pre 10 name .
Tether And the digital wave . As we can see ,Tether And money （ Especially the dollar ） The digitization of encryption assets reflects the rising trend of encryption assets .Tether The market value of is 2021 The annual increase is about 190%, Ethereum's price has gone up 280%, The Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index is close to 130% The rise was mainly due to the relatively poor performance of bitcoin , The increase is close to 30%.
Ethereum's rising dominance . In our view , Ethereum's dominance and bitcoin's decline represent the dichotomy between cryptocurrencies , And it's a persistent trend . Ethereum is the key building block of financial digitalization , Bitcoin, on the other hand, is more likely to replace gold in its portfolio in the macro field . Not many smart contracts or tokens can be built on bitcoin , But it's moving in that direction into a digital reserve asset . The figure below depicts the market value of Ethereum as a percentage of the total market value .
Bitcoin is dormant 、 Stronger 、 More environmentally friendly
What happened to bitcoin ？ It will be stronger 、 More environmentally friendly and less scalable . In our view , The reason for bitcoin's rebound is the continuation of the bull market and the road to 10 The inevitable path of ten thousand dollars .4 The market was a little overheated in January , A major factor in the cryptocurrency correction —— Excessive energy use —— Represents the strength of the world's largest decentralized network . China's restrictions, on the contrary, promote the benefits of bitcoin , And turn to renewable energy .
2021 year , The fundamentals of bitcoin are solid .2020 end of the year , The historical trend of bitcoin shows that cryptocurrency will be 2021 It's going up a lot in 2007 , It is true . Bitcoin to this year 5 month 24 It's up about 35%, stay 65,000 It's getting a little too high around the dollar , But it's down about... From the peak 50% Under the background of , It's in 30,000 There are multiple layers of support below the dollar .
The picture below depicts 2021 A key part of the fundamentals of bitcoin in 2008 ： stay 2020 year , Unlike most major asset classes （ S & P in particular 500 Index ） comparison ,260 Day volatility fell to its lowest level ever . Plus the decrease in supply last year 、 The move to institutional portfolios 、 Ethereum futures and its launch in Canada and Europe ETF, We think bitcoin is going to 10 The potential ratio of US $10000 to US $10000 remains at 2 It's more likely to be under $10000 .
2021 Year of 100,000 The dollar is standard . The figure below depicts the trend of cryptocurrency 100,000 The potential path to dollar resistance . Be similar to 2013 year （55 times ） and 2017 year （15 times ） There's a huge rebound in ,2021 The annual supply is decreasing .2020 The year-on-year halving is taking place against the backdrop of unprecedented global fiscal and monetary stimulus and institutions' preference for bitcoin distribution . For most of the last decade , Cryptocurrency is more and more likely to become a digital reserve asset and maintain its planned route .
Another point of support is that people are beginning to recognize new asset classes . Gold may be losing its importance , So diversification may just be prudent .
What makes bitcoin reach 100,000 dollar ？— Follow Ethereum . If bitcoin is in 2021 The performance of Ethereum in 2005 , So the number one cryptocurrency will go to 100,000 The dollar is moving forward . Chart display , By 5 month 24 Japan , The Bloomberg Galaxy encryption index (BGCI) Up about 110%, Among them, Ethereum rose 230%. by comparison , Bitcoin is about 30% The rise of the price is relatively stable . Speed up 、 There are three possible options to keep or reverse , We see about two-thirds of the possibilities tend to ：BGCI rising .
Ethereum may represent the next level of innovation , Beyond the technology-based NASDAQ index . As the cornerstone of cryptocurrency market and financial technology , Cryptocurrency, number two, is becoming more and more glamorous , As Ethereum's supply declines , Financial technology is rapidly digitizing . Plus the shift to less expensive proof of equity , The foundation of Ethereum is gradually consolidated .
Technical analysis ： A discounted Ethereum bull market
Ethereum is the preferred platform for cryptocurrency and decentralized Finance , Our analysis shows that , Ethereum is at a discount in a long bull market . Look like 2017 Bitcoin of , Slightly higher than the market , Ethereum has eliminated excessive speculation , Should be in 2,000-4,000 The price of the dollar has been consolidation for a while .
2,000-4,000 The dollar may be the best point for Ethereum . Compared to bitcoin as a global digital reserve asset , Ethereum has a price advantage , Bitcoin is expected to be in 2021 Six figures a year . The etheric fang 5 In the middle of the month, it is slightly higher than 4,000 dollar , But in 5 month 26 Japan amended the contract 60% A contract 2,800 After the dollar , Now it looks like a discount bull market . The graph depicts ETH Back to the path of optimism , Follow bitcoin 2017 The price trend in 2007 . Similar to Ethereum at the beginning of this year , The currency 2017 At the beginning of the year, it was about 1,000 dollar , The highest is slightly lower than 20,000 dollar . Ethereum may be in 5 About the month 2,000 USD to 4,000 The dollar range remains to 10 month , And walk out of the similar 2017 The rising path of bitcoin in .
The etheric fang 4,000 Excessive speculation around the dollar seems to be falling below 2,000 When the price of US $1.5 billion was increased, it was basically eased .
Discount bull market ： Ethereum fell to 2,000 dollar . Compared to the broader encryption market ,ETH The fact that the price is close indicates that it will be in trouble for some time . The graph depicts ETH And MVIS CryptoCompare Digital assets 100 The ratio of the index , Slightly lower than 2017 The peak of the year . That year 6 month , Ethereum achieves 350 dollar , Fixed about 60%, And then in 11 The highest level of the month rebounded to its peak , We see similarities ,ETH It has come down 60% It's a little lower than 2,000 dollar , And in the bull market at a discount .
Ethereum is the main performance leader of the market , The overall trend is up ,2,000 Around the dollar is good support , The reasonable pressure level to limit its further walking is 4,000 dollar .