NFT The real expectation is to be a part of ordinary people's daily life , Instead of news that is so far away from most people as it is now .

writing : Zero fire ,Nekowarp founder 、 China's two dimensional community builder

Welcome to 2021 year , It's not so nice the second year of the epidemic , It's also NFT A rising year .NFT In this year, like a supernova explosion, it came into the view of all of us . Maybe history is making a malicious joke with us , Plague and cultural movement , But it's hard not to think of near 700 The Black Death five years ago and the renaissance after it , Although in fact COVID-19 and NFT There may be no connection between the two .

But at least the Renaissance and NFT In my opinion, there are too many similarities . Da Vinci in the early Renaissance 、 Art broker 、 Medici family 、 Uffizi gallery , These elements construct the modern art auction collection system ( namely , The artist 、 The auction house 、 collectors 、 Art Gallery ) system . Now it is NFT This process is reproduced through electronic works . And it seems to me that NFT Auction is not an end, but a starting point . Entering the modern era, especially the Internet era , This process will be accelerated , At the same time, it's different from the Renaissance , Has a better industrial base , Destined not to follow the path of the past . So I think NFT Will 100 We're going to run the Renaissance twice as fast , Go through high art and enter mass art , More widely accepted .

It's in this one NFT The rising Era , As an editor who has been working in the secondary community for a long time to assist individuals and groups in independent publishing [ I'm sorry , Although I want to be more accurate to say that I am the leader of a fellow Club / Plan , But it's hard to explain , So to borrow a more understandable saying .], Over the past year, I have been constantly mentioned by friends NFT, And I want to be part of it . After their brief introduction , about NFT I came up with a series of ideas , Maybe these ideas are more unique and different from the current mainstream NFT Point of view . These ideas are quite interesting to my friends , So I'm honored to be invited to write this article .

It's very dangerous to oversimplify a thing , However, it is obvious that miscellaneous discussions can be daunting , So I will try to make my point as simple and clear as possible .

I'm going to divide it into two parts 5 Let's talk about it from three aspects :

  1. NFT Current mainstream views
  2. The background of these views
  3. The reflection of these views on the platform level
  4. The reflection of these views on the level of creators
  5. The foreseeable future and beyond

The first part NFT The current mainstream view of the world :

  1. Through technology to make the original lack of scarcity of electronic works have the property of scarcity
  2. Scarcity produces high value
  3. NFT Is it possible for electronic products to compare with reality ( Offline ) Faster circulation
  4. And games ( virtual world ) combination
  5. Unlike cryptocurrency, it's based entirely on consensus , It's an entity ( Electronic entity ), More reliable

almost NFT That's what the mainstream view is , Naturally, it is not difficult to infer from these views that NFT How will it develop .

  1. The premise of scarcity is that demand is greater than supply . Works of art that are not necessities of life , Only famous IP The demand is greater than the supply , Nature seeks fame IP Cooperation with the creator is inevitable and urgent .

  2. In the long run, creators 、 The group's staying depends on enough revenue ( money 、 reputation 、 Freshness and so on are what I call revenue here ). So it has to be maintained for quite some time NFT The income needs of enterprises are always higher than that of non enterprises NFT.

  3. In the field of games , In order to guarantee that the game assets will not be developed 、 Operational abuse , Form reliable virtual goods to keep value , It must be independent of development 、 Third party autonomous group in operation 、 Platform vs. in game NFT Supervision of goods and subsequent transactions and management .

The second part NFT The background of these views

in my opinion NFT What is the background of the rise :

With the massive release of water from the United States, investment institutions have entered the field of cryptocurrency , Let the believers of the coin circle get more money than they think , But at the same time, the more people believe in cryptocurrency , This uneasiness is also more and more onerous , Because up to now, the application scenarios of cryptocurrency are still very limited , It is far from normal that the proportion of its commercial attributes is too heavy . So the insecurity of cryptocurrency is stronger than ever . This uneasiness has prompted believers to urgently shift risk and release pressure , But because believers believe in cryptocurrency very much , Therefore, the NFT It's the best choice . This contributed to NFT stay 2021 The rise of China in 2000 .

but NFT It's not the creators themselves that are the core advocates and supporters of , But by the IT People in the technical field ( Later, it is called technical school ) Put forward . Even more directly NFT Based on blockchain and cryptocurrency technology , In technology, the copyright owners ( Gallery 、 The auction house 、 Copyright intermediaries and even individuals ) Lobbying led to the birth of what is now NFT.

With the support of the copyright owner , But they're not actual creators like technocrats , So at present NFT Lack of a creative point of view . The current thinking angle is more from the perspective of economic principles , If it's electronic now , It used to be tulips 、 horse racing 、 gold 、 Cryptocurrency 、 Star Wars toys not in mass production [ Star Wars toy sells for record-breaking $112,926 at central Pa. auction]、 Gym shoes .

But there's a fundamental difference , The output of the latter can be regulated , Although it needs a certain start-up time, it can increase and reduce production after completion , After all, plants 、 Animals can be bred quantitatively , Rare minerals or cryptocurrency can be obtained by consuming resources , Star Wars toys not in mass production 、 Shoes are made according to the order quantity . But cultural products depend on people's subjective creativity to produce works , It's very difficult to do it almost in an assembly line way , Even if Marvel succeeds , But this success is hard to achieve in the future DC We can get a complete reproduction of it . At the same time, if you have a certain understanding, traditional marketing does not include cultural market .

Therefore, it is absolutely forbidden to use the works created by the creators 、 The simple and crude analogy of electronic works to plants 、 animal , Ore 、 Cryptocurrency or some kind of industrial product , The creator itself must be taken into account as an important factor .

Because the technocrats don't know the creators , at present NFT It is difficult to know the essential needs of the creator , Even to a certain extent, intentionally or unintentionally ignored this point , Now, of course NFT You don't need to have direct contact with the creator to operate ( But I don't think it will take long , You have to have direct contact , This will be explained in detail in part five ) It's about getting in touch with more commercial copyright owners . In this case, the direct appeal to individual creators is limited ( The worst case is a negative return , because gas The fees need to be paid in advance ), In turn, NFT The freshness it brings now is more attractive .

because NFT For the Creator , Obviously it's not their natural way of thinking . On the whole , What creators care about is essentially self-expression —— The work produced by creation is the result , And continuous creation depends on the positive feedback produced by the work . Positive feedback can be money 、 Applause and flowers or freshness ( There is no order ), As long as one of the above positive feedback meets the minimum threshold of the Creator , They will have the subjective will to create this behavior ( for instance , Why are there poor artists , Because as long as their income can maintain their basic survival, they will continue to create ). For more creators, they are introverted and even immersed in their own world , Only a small number of people have strong action power beyond creation .

Of course, we can't rule out the reason why a creator creates , It's based on economic benefits, and he's better at getting benefits from it . But after accumulating a certain amount of wealth , It will soon transform into an art broker or some kind of Art Management , Even directly into the business sector , And then give up the original creation . This kind of people are interested in what they need NFT Come on , It's just passers-by, not long-term service , But in the early days, these people will be very concerned and actively involved in NFT I even give it to you NFT Bring great help , I'm not trying to deny their meaning here , But what I want to say is that on a longer time scale , They're not for me NFT The main content provided by the Creator .

NFT It is in such an environment to grow rapidly , But then there's tulip fever or yadali shock (Atari shock)* The possibility of death began to increase rapidly . Because the value of electronic works depends on subjective judgment , In particular, what we buy is scarcity, not just artistry .

Yadali shock , Also known as 1983 U.S. game industry crash , Because the industry leader Atali's chaotic business strategy has led to a large number of shoddy games flooding the market , Player confidence continues to decline , Among them, yadali game burying incident ( The unsalable first party Atari game 《E.T.》 The company decided to bury it , The incident was widely reported by the media ) It's the most iconic event . The impact of this collapse is as long as 3 year , The game market in North America is shrinking , from 1983 Year of 32 US $billion to 1985 Year of 1 Billion dollars . Until 1985 Nintendo at the end of the year broke the deadlock .

Last , I want to make some clarification , Although I analyzed and criticized the current view , But I'm not saying that the technocrats are wrong , I even think that's the key to the development process 、 The most difficult start-up phase , But the first mock exam will touch the ceiling of this model and it will be difficult to enter the next stage , As for the stagnation caused by this . Because this route is not based on an objective analysis of the creator's needs , It is based on the perspective and path dependence of the technologists themselves . Even hope to copy the course of cryptocurrency , Just exchange cryptocurrency for NFT.

The third part These views are important to the platform (NFT Auction platform ) The reflection of different levels

Come here , We already know NFT The main stream viewpoint and the reason and background of its formation . So in the specific means of implementation level , It's not hard to deduce NFT What is the auction platform ready to do in the near future .

  1. Get famous IP Authorization and production of related electronic works . Including but not limited to : Sports star electronic collection card , The Internet memes Of NFT turn , Famous artists 、 Musicians launch NFT works , Famous Meiman 、 Day is long IP Launch independent NFT works ,NFT Electronic manual ( Most of them will also rely on well-known companies IP Or famous original author ). Simply put, it's through cooperation with copyright owners NFT Properties of the product .

  2. Through the above cases , High revenue to attract more copyright owners and even individual creators to join directly .

  3. More active promotion of electronic works and their creators , start-up NFT The star making movement takes it as a model and model

  4. Working with games , Transfer in-game assets —— goods 、 real estate 、 Skin or character NFT turn .

  5. NFT The platform gradually absorbs copyright owners 、 Art brokers are part of it , Or the latter may set up their own NFT platform .

But there is a problem with all of these things , Why do copyright owners have to NFT must not , What are the benefits beyond the potentially high economic returns , How long can high economic returns last ? The uncertainty about this leads the copyright owner to seek a floor price .

In order to attract creators to join ( Individual join or license copyright owner ),NFT The platform will support some potential creators as models , But such unnatural star making means a high cost , At the same time, there is a clear lack of Sustainability . Finally, we need a more universal model of promoting electronic works and creators than the model project .

Although it can provide a more reliable guarantee for the game , But for now , It's not necessary in the game world NFT To guarantee , It's more about building trust and consensus through long-term stable operation , for example Counter-Strike ( China is a dream journey to the West ) The acquired game assets can appreciate and Trade ( There is even a rich secondary market ). and NFT There's no more good in the emergence of the new world than being more trustworthy , There is no guarantee when the game is closed , These game assets avoid devaluation for 0 The end result of . even to the extent that NFT They can't guarantee themselves NFT The platform does not lose itself after it is shut down , And now it is clear that there is no cryptocurrency as strong as NFT platform .

As a result, interest in the game industry will be extremely limited , Of course, we can't rule out a landmark event , This event needs to satisfy one point —— Completely destroyed people's interest in game development 、 Operations control of game assets . here NFT This kind of form and the third party organization will have a strong demand .

The problems existing in these means and methods , It's all about the platform . Of course, I think after a period of development ( If you're out of luck, you might NFT Go through the decline and boom of the game industry ), All of these problems will be solved through ownership 「 Enough continuous creators 」 To solve . because 「 Enough continuous creators 」 There will be enough Electronics , And among them must be popular electronic works , So as to bring stable users and audiences , Finally consolidate NFT Platform and even the whole NFT.

Here comes the question ——

The fourth part The reflection of these views on the level of creators

Get rid of a misconception before you start , The creators are people who are willing to try new things , It's not , They treat new things as ordinary people , Like ordinary people, only a few people dare and are willing to try new things .

at present NFT Benefits , For creators, I can only think of these two reasons for their participation .

  1. Taste fresh 、 Meet the auction dream
  2. Put it in the hands of an art broker 、 Direct sale to copyright owner , Earn a minimum fee

NFT Although it seems to have a high yield , But its appeal to creators is extremely limited , This is not difficult to understand from the perspective of game theory . Of course, I have a more understandable example , Let me quote an American painter friend's analogy , That's how he explained why he wasn't involved :

「 This thing (NFT) It's the same as love and marriage websites , You are the man , The seller is the woman . As a man, I have to pay , And it's uncertain if there's a suitable woman , But no matter whether it is successful or not, the money will definitely be paid .

and NFT, I don't know if my works can be sold at a high price , But now it is gas I'm sure I'll pay for it , The rich are richer and the poor poorer , So it's a scam for me .」

For him or the artists represented by him , High yield NFT It's an act that's not related to them , Even for them, their participation is tantamount to being cheated . And he's not an unknown painter , He [ https://twitter.com/ClickAgain 219.7K Followers] It's an independent game studio lab zero game Former art director ( The studio was closed because of internal disputes ).

And there's an inherent logic to their choice ——

We might as well divide the men who use love and marriage websites into three categories according to their attractiveness to the target group .

If you're a good quality man , To be honest, you don't need to go to a dating website , You'll probably find someone you like , It's possible that even the objects are constantly changing . And when they appear on love and marriage websites, they are generally invited by the platform or want to make a self recognition confirmation . Obviously, none of these people will be long-term users of love and marriage websites ( To be honest, who will be the long-term users of love and marriage websites ?), But their appearance is bound to be very popular , It will even become news and a successful case of the love and marriage website .

Of course, it can't be denied that there are a few high-quality men who don't know their own strength , But how many of them ?

If you're a normal male , So it means you gamble every time , Every time you pay to use the love and marriage website, it means pulling the joystick of the slot machine . Most of the time it's fruitless , Sometimes there are small prizes , There's only a very small chance of winning the big prize . Therefore, as ordinary men, they lack the enthusiasm to use or even try , More is speculative psychology, so will take more wait-and-see , If you succeed in this class .

And the men who are most active in trying are those who are not welcome , But for them, it's closer to self abandonment , Can it be worse after all , It's just going to be rejected as usual , But if it's better, it's earned . So they will try to use love and marriage websites more actively , But if you fail, you will give up soon .

The above logic is the same for painters , therefore NFT The current model is highly consistent with love and marriage websites , Although it is not impossible to maintain, it is difficult to have greater development . Like mark · Zuckerberg initially established the invitation system with Harvard as the core according to the ideas of the winkleforth brothers 「ConnectU」 Marriage platform , I'm afraid its development can't be today's Facebook.

Some might say gas Fees are not a problem , It can be directly exempted from the burden of the platform , Or at the buyer's expense . In this way, new problems will arise , Although this will lower the threshold of entry for a large number of hesitant creators , But at the same time, it also makes the crude works more rampant , The latter will obviously increase more .

The fifth part The foreseeable future and beyond

Take on the previous section , It's not hard to infer what will happen in the foreseeable future .

Excessive funds compete for a small amount of high-quality NFT works , meanwhile NFT The platform is full of a large number of inferior works of different creators , Medium level NFT The works are submerged in them and hard to find , Over reliance on the recommendation of relevant professional media .

A small amount of high quality NFT The high premium of excessive works may induce tulip fever , And a large number of inferior quality full of the market will inevitably lead to the yadali shock . In this mode NFT It's a fragile market , It's hard to carry more capital and demand , Easy to overheat and collapse .

I don't think NFT The status quo is wrong , But I think that if we continue to maintain this direction, its development will inevitably have limitations , You need to realize that this is just a phase . Even I said with confidence , Even a collapse is nothing more than cooling the overheated market , Just like after the shock of Atari, the game industry is 5 Led by Nintendo, Nintendo rose again this year and continues to this day .

So what does this stage mean now ?

As I said at the beginning , The development of high art cannot do without artists 、 The auction house 、 collectors 、 Art Gallery , This model is still working well , But it's isolated from most people . The last elegant artist known to the public is probably Picasso ( Even with banks now , But it's obviously not famous enough , It's more of a street art , Or popular art rather than traditional high art ). But it does not mean the disappearance of high art and the system behind it , It's extremely elitist, but obviously limited in scale . For the public, it is the popular art that replaces the elegant art , It's not vulgar, but it's not elegant .

But there is no elegant art supported by a single gold owner , There would be no possibility of mass art . It may not be the intention , but NFT It's obviously reproducing the circulation pattern of Renaissance works of art , That's why we now rely heavily on traditional auction houses 、 The copyright owner, not the creator, is the provider of the electronic work .

That's why I don't deny the current NFT Pattern . But considering the relatively backward productivity different from that of the Renaissance , Today, it's easy to copy good works and mass produce them , At the same time, the development of Internet platform is faster than that of similar offline platforms 10 Times or even 100 times , So it's necessary to plan ahead .

Here I want you to jump out NFT The thinking set of the new era ——NFT The value of value lies in scarcity . because NFT Now scarcity is actually highly dependent on NFT Reputation accumulated before industrialization . And I think NFT This property will soon become an essential property of all electronic works , But based on the Geithner curve ( Technology maturity curve /The Hype Cycle), Although there is such potential , But the current market is bound to have tulip fever and yadali shock collapse . This is not the end , It's the necessary market clearing mechanism , Like Nintendo after the shock of yadali, it has brought better mechanisms and games , The game industry has come to this day , It's even hotter because of the rise of card games .

but , Why ?

Because obviously NFT The business attribute of the enterprise is brought about by its tool attribute , Now too much attention has been paid to its commercial attributes and the importance of tool attributes has been ignored , In my opinion, in order to stabilize the market, we need to further develop its instrumental properties .

Final ,NFT On electronic works , It's like Alipay to Taobao .

current NFT Alipay , In terms of the proportion of business attributes and tool attributes , The two are almost the same, even worse NFT The proportion of commercial property of the company is even higher , But now NFT But there is not a complete one 「 TaoBao 、 Tmall 」( Content and content market ) To support it . That's why NFT The root cause of instability .

NFT The change that can be brought about by the tool properties of is huge , It's not just about accelerating the electronization of all offline works , At the same time, it can also get rid of the past pattern of relying on centralization ( Press. 、 The bookstore ) It's faster and more extensive decentralization ( Highly personal and atomized ). Because for the creator, the most difficult part of the work is to be known by others , So we have to rely on centralized groups , And with NFT after , Can easily trace the source , The reader can know directly where the picture comes from . It will greatly change the ecology of the whole industry .

In fact, this trend is changing NFT It started before it came , Some individual creators have completed their own production and marketing relying on social networks , Skip the press 、 Editing and other miscellaneous processes , Of course, they're still working with bookstores to distribute both physically and electronically .

therefore NFT The single auction model will soon pass , Instead, it's mixed mode , namely ——

NFT A large number of copies of attributes , Distribution of books in similar bookstores 、 The magazine 、 Electronic distribution of picture books and other modes , And the only one NFT Electronic manuscript ( Take art works as an example , There will be layers, more details ) Physical manuscripts of meetings and works 、 The manuscript was sold at a high price .

Just like Harry Potter , There's only one manuscript for the press , At that time, even though it had literary value of its own , But it's worthless from an economic point of view because of the lack of widespread recognition . But after a lot of copies spread at a low price , Its literary value has been recognized through a wide range of audiences , Now its original has a very high economic value .

Therefore, scarcity and inclusiveness are not one or the other , It's mutual promotion and inclusion .

In addition, in terms of the market , Obviously, popular art is much bigger than elegant art , Although the single price is much lower , But there's an absolute advantage in numbers .

As I said before , With NFT The development of , The cooperation between various platforms and copyright owners will be short-lived , This cooperation is more new to this field, and it comes from mutual needs . But after a period of time, they will build their own , thereafter NFT Platform and game console 、PC The same as the game platform .

That's why I talked more about the creator than the copyright owner as an intermediary .

If the example of game platform is a little far away from you , Difficult to understand . So during the industrial revolution , The reasons for the great powers to control the colonies are similar , Simply put, control the place where raw materials are produced in order to serve the domestic industry , And colonization is the most cost-effective way . about NFT The creator is the core raw material .

So I think NFT The key point is the creator , Because back to the source , They are the root of all this .

If that's a bit of a leap, it's hard to understand , That's how it should be understood

During the industrial revolution , In order to meet the growing domestic market , The increasing output of the factory , They chose the best 「 Simple 」 And the most 「 economic 」 How to control the origin of raw materials —— colonization . To some extent, the strength of the great powers directly depends on the number of colonies , After World War II, the new international system disintegrated the original colonial system , The original powers had to take more 「 trouble 」 And flowers 「 cost 」 Trade with the origin of raw materials .

So here we are NFT The platform is regarded as the great powers , Regarding the creator as the origin of raw materials .

Origin of raw materials ——》 the big powers ( manufacture & Processing plant 、 market )——》 consumer

Creator ——》NFT platform ( Conduct NFT turn 、 market )——》 collectors

So in my opinion , When NFT When the competition between platforms becomes white hot , It is bound to be the same as the powers in the period of the industrial revolution that they began to fight for creators .

So how to catch them , Obviously, it's just relying on NFT「 Probably 」 It's not enough to have high economic returns , To grasp people's heart is to grasp their stomach , Provide what they are hungry for ——

  1. Basic economic security
  2. Applause and flowers ( Wider dissemination )
  3. feeling of freshness (like fashion)

In this way, they will continue to devote themselves to creation .

So how to do it , Provide directly NFT It's not only unattractive, it takes time and effort to explain and convince . For the creator how to better Winning hearts and minds?

  1. Let the works be traced better ( At the same time, it has a certain anti piracy ability )
  2. Good community interaction ( Translation into a second language , Readers' meeting )
  3. Provide the services that the creator needs ( Help them to facilitate the production of physical objects , Help them attend foreign exhibitions )

For the first point , Here is an additional explanation —— At present, it costs a lot to trace the source of works spread on the Internet , Unless you bring your own watermark signature , And the name can accurately point to the original author . Otherwise, it is very likely that there will be fire all over the Internet, but no one knows the Creator , Let alone pay for it . And this is the strength of blockchain Technology , It's also NFT It can be done .

All of these schemes have existed and been implemented, but lack of systematic integration .

If you can do that, you don't have to explain to them what NFT, take NFT As part of the package . Unless they are NFT Interested in , Otherwise, I don't even suggest mentioning it with them alone NFT. Because to the creators who lack relevant knowledge , Explain what is NFT It takes a lot of time and cost , Using the same amount of consumption to do the above measures is easier to win the creators .

for instance , A group of painters took part in the exhibition in South America and made a tour , During this period, they created a series of works , They agree that their works in the past and during this period can be promoted and sold through the platform of organizing the activity . There will be physical sales at the show , There will be on the line NFT Selling in the form of copies , At the same time, there will be NFT The manuscript was auctioned .

The benefits of this operation , Its revenue and cycle are extremely stable . At the same time, once the creators join the platform, unless there is a bigger Temptation , Otherwise, it won't be easily transferred to another platform .

Only in this way can the creator stay and use it naturally , There is no need for the creator to try with an uneasy mood . It's like cashless consumption in China now , For foreigners, there may be an attempt to say , But for the Chinese, they are used to it .

I think that's it NFT What we really expect , And the future that will come true , A part of ordinary people's daily life , use NFT Buying electronic art is part of everyday life , It's not news as it is now , It's news far away from most people .