Bitcoin's biggest monthly decline, are you scared?

Blockchain headlines 2021-06-18 20:35:16 阅读数:196

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bitcoin biggest monthly decline scared

author : Go to the moon

lately , Bitcoin took a huge retreat from its high point , Hit a 10 The biggest monthly drop in the past year (-37.9%), Most market participants are very anxious and panicked about the future trend of cryptocurrency market . From the message side , There are two key factors in the recent withdrawal of bitcoin : One is the vacillation of Musk's attitude towards bitcoin , Because bitcoin mining consumes a lot of energy, which is inconsistent with Tesla's environmental stance ; The second is the bad policy of domestic regulators .

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Although short-term volatility is high , The whole cryptocurrency market is short of sentiment , But Xiaobian is still optimistic about the follow-up trend of the market , Here's why :

01   Institutions build a strong cryptocurrency infrastructure

Although the price of bitcoin has recently returned to the roller coaster trend , But its acceptance as an investable asset class is growing , Because there are a number of institutions that really support bitcoin in the market , The cryptocurrency infrastructure built by them is much stronger than in previous years .

First ,Square As one of the first companies to support bitcoin , On its platform Q1 Bitcoin trading volume exceeds 35 Billion dollars , That's up from the same period last year 11 times .

secondly ,PayPal Also hope that potential customers are really satisfied with cryptocurrency , And to put forward “ Introduce foreign capital into cryptocurrency again ”.PayPal A large number of users are still trying to figure out what cryptocurrency is , And how cryptocurrency fits into their lives . Although many companies allow buyers to buy cryptocurrency , But relatively few people support debit cards , and PayPal Services are being provided to convert cryptocurrencies into national currencies that can be spent , In order to support PayPal Pay anywhere to do business .

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5 month 27 Japan ,PayPal announce , It is intended to allow users to withdraw cryptocurrency to a third party wallet .PayPal And its companies Venmo Users of the platform can not only send bitcoin to users in the platform , It can also be extracted to Coinbase And external cryptocurrency wallets . Free withdrawal of money will greatly improve the user experience , It also meets the need of encryption users to freely control their personal assets .

in addition , except Square and PayPal outside , Goldman's digital asset Division also said , Institutional buyers have begun to study cryptocurrency , And ask their portfolio to enter the field . Wells Fargo also wants to enter the bitcoin market , It will soon provide professional management solutions for buyers involved in cryptocurrency . Technical director of Wells Fargo's real assets John LaForge Express ,“ We predict that cryptocurrency will become more mature , Has become a viable investable asset .”

As the cryptocurrency industry becomes more regular , More and more institutions will really support cryptocurrency , Cryptocurrency industry participants will also continue to grow .

02   The development of encryption industry is no longer limited to bitcoin

lately , The discussion of cryptocurrency industry by mainstream institutions and media is not limited to bitcoin . Strategists at Goldman Sachs and ARK The founders emphasized the potential of Ethereum . billionaire Druckenmiller It also admits that Ethereum is in a leading position in terms of smart contracts and so on , At the same time, some latecomers will challenge it .

From the perspective of the development trend of cryptocurrency industry , The decline in the market value of bitcoin is an inevitable trend , It's also a sign of industry progress . If the whole cryptocurrency market is dominated by bitcoin , Then it can only show that the industry has not made substantial progress .

Technically speaking , Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and bitcoin are assets at different levels . Just like a best seller 《 Bitcoin standard 》 The author of Saifedean Ammous said ,“ Other cryptocurrencies are completely different from bitcoin , They don't really compete with bitcoin . The real competitors of other cryptocurrencies are traditional platforms such as Amazon Web services .” If bitcoin carries the banner of the cryptocurrency industry , Then Ethereum and other value projects are the new force of cryptocurrency application . future , We may see a gradual decline in the correlation between the price movements of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies , Just like the relationship between gold price and technology stocks now .

03   The macroeconomic environment for inflation

Driven by massive liquidity creation by central banks , On a global scale “ Economic recovery ” The long-term impact of the crisis is emerging . Some signs of inflation have emerged , For example, manufacturing costs are spiraling up .

JPMorgan stock strategist Mixo Das Think ,“ Policy makers have promised to accept higher inflation 、 Higher inflation volatility , When that happens , We will see inflation continue to rise . Inflation has not really been factored into asset prices .”

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( chart ) Fed balance sheet

It is estimated that , Every year there is about 10% Global wealth is wiped out by inflation . essentially , Bitcoin is the opposite of inflation , Because the total supply of bitcoin is fixed , The release curve keeps falling , And can't manipulate . therefore , The demand for bitcoin by individuals and institutions holding large amounts of cash will continue to expand with inflation .

04   The weak hand is handing over the chips

Bitcoin from 64000 There's been a huge pullback in the dollar , Some people think it's a golden opportunity to get in , Others think it's the beginning of a nightmare —— This divergence is also reflected in the indicators on the chain .

according to Glassnode The latest data , At the current level , Old players are continuing to hoard bitcoin , Recently, new players continue to sell . The chips come from “ Weak hands ” Transferred to the “ Strong hand ”, And the conversion rate is accelerating . Miners are back in buying mode .

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As can be seen from the above figure , The miners ( Orange arrow ) And long-term holders ( The green arrow ) Accumulating bitcoin , Only short-term holders ( Purple arrow ) On sale .

05   Contract rates return to rationality

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The current contract rate is negative , That is, bears need to pay for bulls . Open contract volume has not yet recovered , This shows that leveraged participants were largely washed out of the sell-off , The surrender of leverage bets effectively reset the market structure , Make the market more rational . This will make the price of bitcoin driven to a greater extent by the real demand of long-term holders , Not as a bet for short-term speculation .

   summary

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From the monthly rise and fall , The currency 5 The monthly decline was as high as 37.9%, The data is really bleak . however , Bitcoin is also in the ups and downs shown above , Keep pushing up the bottom of the price . People are always keen to discuss short-term price trends , But the power of long-term trends is often ignored . If you are a good short-term trader , Please throw high and suck low , Because your goal is to make a profit . If you're a secular , Please continue to HODL, Because your goal is to get the benefits of the industry trend , And the story of blockchain is obviously far from over .

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