The currency 「 whale 」 Break up with retail investors .
Original title ：《 Can the bull market continue ？ Consolidation phase whale 、 Retail investors 、 Institutions 、 How long-term holders operate 》
writing ： PAData
since 4 From the middle of the month ,BTC Led the cryptocurrency market to open a high adjustment market . according to CoinMarketCap The data of .BTC stay 4 month 14 It reached an all-time high 64455.48 After the dollar started to turn down , to 5 month 23 The day has reached a low point 33139.27 dollar , During the period, the overall decline was about 48.59%. Over the same period, the market value of cryptocurrency also increased from about 2.26 Trillion dollars down to about 1.58 Trillions of dollars , The size of the market 「 shrink 」 about 30.09%.
at present ,BTC be located 34000 USD to 40000 The U.S. dollar is volatile in the range , The size of the market is also 1.48 Trillion dollars to 1.78 Trillions of dollars , The market is in a horizontal position . that , After consolidation , Will the market continue to move up ？PAData After analyzing the capital trend of the secondary market in the near future, it is found that ：
- Judging from the capital trend of mainstream assets , In the exchange ,BTC Recently, there has been a net inflow of 5.02 over , Tradable funds increase or provide space for short-term consolidation , and ETH And out came 100.3 over , This can reduce or further enhance trading chips ETH The value support of .
- The stable currency in the secondary market has increased significantly recently , The market is well funded , This provides a basis for the upward market after consolidation .8 The total number of stable currencies in exchange wallets has increased 19.94 Billion dollars .
- Over the past week, the willingness of off-site funds to enter has increased .USDT The premium rate stopped falling and rebounded to 0.6% about , And showing a moderate upward trend , But more than before 3% Around the premium rate is still very low .
- Recent market buying BTC and ETH The will of the whole to increase , purchase BTC It's more obvious that we're willing to . But different transaction subjects have different transaction directions . The holding growth of institutions such as gray scale is sluggish , Long term holders continue to accumulate tokens ,BTC「 whale 」 Contrary to retail trading . The main driver of market growth has shifted from institutions in the second half of last year to other roles such as long-term holders .
- It is worth noting that ,Coinbase Medium BTC Continued the net outflow trend since last year , This may mean that overseas users will transfer funds from CeFi Migrate to DeFi The trend is more pronounced , Or it means 「 whale 」 stay BTC During the adjustment period, a large number of Tun coins were collected .
Stable currencies in the secondary market have grown significantly , The market is well funded
Stable currency stable currency supply ratio （Stablecoin Supply Ratio,SSR） yes BTC The ratio of market value to stable currency market value , The decline in this ratio means that stable currency is expanding faster than bitcoin is rising , Stable currency, stronger purchasing power . since this year on ,SSR There is a significant downward trend , And 4 It has been on an accelerated downward trend since January . According to the statistics , Before this year 5 Months ,SSR The growth rates are respectively -6.26%、6.74%、-2.26%、-25.54% and -43.79%. so , From the supply side , The supply of stable currency is sufficient this year , The relative expansion trend is obvious .
according to ViewBase The statistics of , By 5 month 28 Japan , lately 30 God ,USDT、USDC、PAX、TUSD、BUSD、HUSD、USDK and DAI this 8 The total number of stable currencies in exchange wallets has increased 19.94 Billion dollars , The capital in the market is abundant and has obvious increment .
among , In the exchange BUSD The most significant increment is , lately 30 Days increased by about 12.34 Billion dollars , secondly , In the exchange TUSD And the increment is also large , lately 30 It's about 6.80 Billion dollars . Although recently 30 God USDT The amount of change in the exchange is small , But if you look at it from a smaller time period , Its daily liquidity is very high .
Overall speaking , In the near future ,SSR The accelerated decline of the ratio and the substantial growth of the total amount of stable currencies in the secondary market will provide the capital basis for the market upward after consolidation .
BTC Recent net inflows to exchanges , and ETH Then there is a continuous net outflow
From the perspective of the overall flow of mainstream assets in the exchange , By 5 month 25 Japan ,BTC stay Coinbase、Binance、Bitfinex etc. 8 The total stock in each exchange is about 175.2 ten thousand BTC. among Coinbase Still the biggest at the moment BTC The secondary market , The total balance of the wallet has reached 66.67 ten thousand BTC, secondly Binance、OKEx、Huobi and Bitfinex Of BTC The balance is also large .
lately 30 God , this 8 The exchange net inflows 5.02 ten thousand BTC. among ,Binance and Bitfinex The maximum net inflow of each of them is 8.65 ten thousand BTC and 4.10 ten thousand BTC, The cumulative net inflow of the two is more than 12 ten thousand BTC, It is the main gathering place of market funds in the near future . contrary ,Coinbase It's the near future BTC Exchanges with more net outflows , lately 30 Tianjing flows out 3.48 ten thousand BTC, Continued the net outflow trend since last year . It is generally believed , from Coinbase The outflow may have gone to wallets and DeFi agreement , This may mean that overseas users will transfer funds from CeFi Migrate to DeFi The trend is more pronounced , Or it means 「 whale 」 stay BTC During the adjustment period, a large number of Tun coins were collected .
And BTC By contrast, , In the near future ETH Continue to flow out of the exchange in large numbers . By 5 month 28 Japan ,ETH stay Coinbase、Binance 、Kraken、Gemini、Bitfinex etc. 33 The total stock in each exchange is about 2087.88 ten thousand ETH. among ,Coinbase It's also the biggest at the moment ETH The secondary market , The total balance of the wallet has reached 792.4 ten thousand ETH, secondly Binance、Kraken、Gemini、Bitfinex and Huobi Of ETH There is also a lot of stock .
From the recent 30 In terms of the flow of funds in the past few days ,33 The cumulative net outflow of these exchanges 100.3 ten thousand ETH. among ,Huobi and Binance The net outflow is large , Respectively reach about 50.73 ten thousand ETH and 23.79 ten thousand ETH, And the market with more net inflow is Bitstamp and FTX, Respectively reach about 9.13 ten thousand ETH and 5.18 ten thousand ETH.
according to PAData Continuous observation this year , Since this year, 3 Since the month ,ETH Basically maintain a net outflow from the exchange , The flow of funds is mainly smart contracts （ Such as DeFi agreement ）,5 month 15 The day begins , In smart contracts ETH The share has been about the share of the stock of the exchange 2 About times , This trend is expected to continue in the future .
In mainstream assets ,BTC The recent net inflow into the secondary market has increased tradable funds or provided space for short-term consolidation , and ETH Continue to flow out of the secondary market, reduce the number of transactions or further strengthen ETH The value support of .
Stable currency over-the-counter premium rebounded ,BTC and ETH The willingness to buy has risen
In the near future , After many high market adjustments , As the main medium of trade USDT The over-the-counter premium has dropped significantly . According to the currency coin Monitoring of , In the latest week USDT The average over-the-counter premium rate is about 0.60%, a 4 At the beginning of the month, the average 2.59%（ Reference resources 《 Digital reading 7 Big stable currency ： This year's SEO is nearly 600 Time ,USDT The overflow price exceeds 3%》） The level of premium has dropped by about 77%.
But in terms of trends , In the latest week , After the market enters the horizontal adjustment ,USDT The over-the-counter premium rate shows a moderate upward trend , The highest premium rate in the week is about 1.29%.USDT The over-the-counter premium rate is 「 Rewarming 」 It usually means that there are more off-site funds willing to enter .
according to Chainalysis The statistics of , Last month , Mainstream assets BTC and ETH The intensity of market transactions , That is to say, the ratio of total order book to total inflow shows a moderate upward trend .BTC The average daily trading intensity is about 6.41, The overall increase in the month was about 18.28%,ETH The average daily trading intensity is about 9.55, The overall increase in the month was about 5.48%.
An increase in trading intensity usually means that investors in the market are more willing to buy , In terms of the rate of increase , Recent investors are buying BTC Will to increase more .
The growth of institutional holdings is sluggish , Giant whale and retail investors trade in different directions
During the market consolidation period ,「 whale 」、 Retail investors 、 How are long-term holders and institutions trading ？
「 whale 」 With ordinary investors
according to Chain.info Monitoring of , Last month ,8 It's a big deal （ More than a single transaction 50 BTC） The total net outflow is about 14.41 ten thousand BTC, But the total net inflow of the balance is about 5.02 ten thousand BTC. If you think of a big deal as 「 whale 」 Transactions , And the rest of the deals are considered ordinary investor deals , On the whole , In the near future 「 whale 」 Trading in the opposite direction to that of ordinary investors , The former transfers the token out of the exchange , This may point to accumulation , The latter transfers the token to the exchange , This usually points to trading .
From a single market point of view , In line with the overall trend are Binance and OKEx. in addition ,Bitflyer and Bittrex Of these two exchanges 「 whale 」 And ordinary investors, though, have done the opposite , But the 「 whale 」 Transfer the token to the exchange , Ordinary investors, on the other hand, transfer more of their tokens out of the exchange .
besides ,Bitfinex and Kraken Of these two exchanges 「 whale 」 And ordinary investors are transferring tokens to the exchange , and Coinbase and OKEx These two exchanges are 「 whale 」 And ordinary investors are moving tokens out of the exchange .
Long term holders
Dormancy index （Dormancy） It's about being destroyed per unit time （ It refers to the process from holding to circulation ） The ratio of the total amount of the transaction to the total amount of the transaction . A high sleep value means , The token spent that day was illiquid longer , This usually indicates that the long-term holder has made a sell ; A lower dormancy value means that the tokens traded that day are relatively young , This usually indicates that long-term holders are still accumulating tokens .
According to the statistics , since this year on ,BTC and ETH The dormancy index of （7 Daily mean , The same below ） Overall, it shows a downward trend ,BTC The decrease of dormancy index is more significant , That is to say, on the whole ,BTC and ETH The long-term holders of RMB are still confident in the future , So it's more likely to accumulate tokens , In especial BTC Long term holders of , The tendency to accumulate tokens is more pronounced .
If you look at it in a shorter period of time , In the last two months ,BTC and ETH The decrease of dormancy index was more significant , That is to say, although the recent market fluctuation is more intense , But on the whole, long-term holders are still more inclined to accumulate tokens .
It is worth noting that ,5 month 12 Japan ,ETH The dormancy index increased abruptly to 78.6, About... More than the day before 57.59%, The increase is remarkable , And significantly higher than this year ETH The average dormancy index of , This means that long-term holders transferred more tokens on that day . Combined with currency price performance , same day ETH Offer about 3824.91 dollar , The day before that, it just reached a historical peak 4172.76 dollar . The rise in the dormancy index on that day is likely to be caused by the profit selling of long-term holders .
Since the second half of last year , A large number of institutional funds are considered to promote BTC One of the important reasons for the rise , among , Only the world's largest digital money asset management company Grayscale One company increased its holdings in the second half of the year BTC super 139 Billion dollars . But since this year , Include Grayscale Multiple in BTC Fund positions are showing a weak upward trend .
According to Grayscale BTC Trust、Purpose BTC ETF and The Bitcoin Fund According to the monthly change statistics of fund positions of the three institutions ,Grayscale Since this year, 3 Since the month , The total number of positions is gradually decreasing , Average monthly decrease 0.16% about ;The Bitcoin Fund lately 2 The total number of positions in the past three months has also continued to decrease , It's down on average every month 0.22% about ;Purpose BTC ETF Although our position has only declined this month 1.30%, But before 3 The monthly growth rate of three months has shown a significant marginal decline . in addition ,Grayscale ETH Trust Our position is also 3 It will decrease month by month after month , Average monthly decrease 0.14% about .
The decline in institutional positions is related to the continued downturn in the OTC premium of its products , With Grayscale BTC Trust Share GBTC For example , Secondary market OTC premium rate since this year 2 Since the end of the month, it has been lower than 0, Although it's still profitable for early investors , But it's not good for attracting new investors into , It's not conducive to the continuous expansion of fund scale , That is to say, we can't keep buying on a large scale BTC, Can't continue to work for BTC The rise provides the impetus . Institutions urgently need a new story .