Encryption Valley live 2021-06-18 18:50:40 阅读数:632
Original title ：《 depth ｜5 The moon is falling , Which indicators are worth paying attention to ？》
2021 year 5 month 19 Japan , The bitcoin market has experienced since 2020 year 3 The most significant liquidity event and price drop since Black Thursday in September . This sell-off is in 5 After months of consolidation of more than 10000 US dollars , In the market failed to maintain a new high and much anticipated Coinbase It started after it went public .
5 month 19 The most serious sell-off in Japan has created the largest sunyin line in the history of bitcoin , The intraday price range is 11506 dollar . The price of bitcoin comes from 5 month 9 In the past few days, it has dropped 47.3%.
This dramatic price drop surprised a large part of the market , Especially in the longest bull market in the history of bitcoin . therefore , It makes many people wonder if the bull market has been cut off , And whether bitcoin has returned to a long-term bear market structure .
In this article , We'll look at indicators that describe the structure of the market , Including the indicators that led to the sell-off , And an assessment of future bull and bear markets . This article will explore .
Changes in institutional needs
With the valuation growth and maturity of bitcoin Market , It's attracting more money , It also needs more capital and trading volume to maintain and reach a new high . Part of the momentum of this bull cycle One of the main driving forces is undoubtedly the inflow of institutions , Mainly from COVID Big money and Finance policy .
The biggest investment vehicle available to traditional investors is Grayscale GBTC Trust products . stay 2020 Most of the year and 2021 Beginning of the year , Investors through the continuous GBTC Price premium for physical arbitrage , Taking advantage of strong institutional demand . This has a dual effect , Because it will BTC Cryptocurrency comes from circulation Remove , Creating a self reinforcing supply loop , help Growth in institutional demand .
To 2021 year 1 month ,GBTC The inflow of funds into the trust fund is almost 5 m BTC, and GBTC The transaction price of is always in the spot 10% to 20% Between .1 late , Arbitrage began to drive the premium below 10%, and BTC The inflow of foreign capital also began to slow down significantly . stay 2 late , The flow of money has stopped completely ,GBTC Start trading at a long deteriorating spot price discount .
at present ,GBTC The price has been discounted 3 More than a month , stay 5 month 13 The day has come to 21.23% The peak and the low of .GBTC The existence of discount eliminates huge supply , It also provides advance warning , That is, the demand of institutions comes from 2 It has softened a lot since the end of the month .
However , With the recent sell-off ,GBTC The discount has begun to shrink , achieve -3.8%. This shows that , As the spot price of bitcoin falls , Interest in Institutions , Has risen .
Tells a similar story , Canada's bitcoin ETF stay 4 The end of the moon and 5 At the beginning of the month, there was a sustained inflow of capital . thereafter , As the market begins to show signs of weakness , Capital outflows began to dominate . However , And GBTC similar , After the price adjustment , Demand traffic seems to be recovering meaningfully , By 5 late , Inflows are rising again .
GBTC and Purpose ETF All of the inflow shows that , from 2 Month to 5 month , Institutional demand has been weak , Both of these products will have an impact on the flow of BTC Impact on Supply . On the positive side , The recent sell-off seems to have inspired investors in both products , because GBTC The discount of the company increased , and Purpose ETF And the influx of money is starting again .
Bitcoin in 2020 year 3 Three months later, he stepped on the world macroeconomic stage , This effect can be clearly observed in the balance held by the exchange . The balance of the exchange has undergone a dramatic reversal , From long-term accumulation , It's a continuous outflow .BTC The number of is shifting from liquid to non liquid , Creating a self reinforcing supply change , Cryptocurrency transfers from exchanges to institutional custodians and / Or in a cold purse .
Indicators of changes in illiquid supply show the past 30 The speed of cryptocurrency's transition from liquid to illiquid in a day （ Green bar ）. In the past two years , The scale of accumulation is remarkable , However 5 The scale of selling pressure in May was also significant . In this recent sell-off , Investors are clearly spooked .
Although it may take time for the dust to settle , but If this index returns to the cumulative state , It's going to be a powerful signal , It shows that faith has been restored . If not , It may indicate that there will be further distribution in the future .
In the months into the sell-off , We can also see a trend , More and more Token Transferred out of the exchange . contrary , As prices fall , Recently there has been an opposite trend , That is, as investors step in to buy cryptocurrency after falling price , More and more cryptocurrencies are coming into the exchanges .
The downward trend of the total balance of the exchange has continued for more than 434 God , However, in 4 month 3 A significant increase in exchange inflows was observed on July . This is consistent with the previous situation of illiquid cryptocurrency re entering the liquid circulation in the figure above . Please note that , There are many explanations for this behavior , These explanations may all happen at the same time .
A closer analysis of this trend shows that , Except for three exchanges , Outflows from most exchanges are actually sustained , Or neutral .Binance、Bittrex and Bitfinex. These exchanges are all over 2021 In, I saw BTC The accelerating inflow of , In especial Binance Leading most of that . stay 5 In June's sell-off , The total balance held by these exchanges is 1 Within a week, it expanded more than 10 ten thousand BTC.
Considering that these exchanges serve non-U.S. entities , This may indicate that between different international jurisdictions , There are differences in market reactions and beliefs about the events that led to the sell-off .
contrary , American regulated exchanges Coinbase、Gemini、Kraken and Bitstamp Our balance continues to decline , Whole 5 The trend of the month has little significance .
lately , The proportion of on chain transaction costs used for deposits with exchanges is also accelerating . And 2017 The macro top of the year is similar to , In the whole bull market , Demand for deposits on exchanges is accelerating , And then reach a new ATH, This time, it's more than all the expenses on the chain 20%. This shows that , Whether it's out of panic , Or to refinance the margin position during the adjustment period , Cryptocurrency holders urgently need to give priority to deposits .
Last , On the exchange side , There has been a huge deleveraging in the derivatives market , It caused a series of market selling 、 Margin calls and liquidation . from 4 Set in mid June 274 At the peak of the billion dollar open futures contract , exceed 60% The open position contract has been cleared from the book . It is worth noting that , Futures open contract is just a form of leverage in cryptocurrency market . The extra margin comes from cryptocurrency backed loans 、 The options market and more and more DeFi agreement , We further discuss the reaction to this sell-off in this article .
Stable currency undoubtedly plays a role of reserve assets in the industry , Each stable currency has a unique mechanism to maintain 「 Stable 」. therefore , Stable currency relative to its 1 The price performance of the dollar peg can provide insight into exit liquidity demand . Especially in 3 The month and 4 month , Three stable currencies USDT、USDC and DAI There are 1 A month's trading time is higher than the linked price , until Coinbase Direct listing . This shows that , There may be a strong need to stabilize liquidity , Maybe it's right 「 sell 」 The expected .
However , On the other side of the sell-off , Since then, the circulation and supply of stable currency has reached an all-time high . since 4 month 14 Since the beginning of the adjustment on May , In the past 1.5 In the months , The supply of stable currency increased by the following amount .
Stabilize the money supply ratio （SSR） Compare the market value of bitcoin with the total supply of all stable currencies , As an indication of the nature of cryptocurrency 、 An indicator of purchasing power in dollars . Lower SSR Value means relative to the market value of bitcoin , There is a large supply of stable currency . As bitcoin's valuation shrinks , And the steady increase in money supply ,SSR The ratio has now been pushed to 7.5 Times the historical low .
This convincingly represents the largest original dollar purchasing power of cryptocurrency in history .
HODLer The act of buying and selling
Last , We're going to investigate the market for business and HODL Behavior . especially , We will focus on the balance between new investors and long-term holders , The former may be relatively less exposed to bitcoin fluctuations and FUD The world of （ Short term holders ,STH）, The belief of the latter is formed by years of trading thinking .
stay 2020-21 In the bull market of , Holding time in 6 Months to 3 Cryptocurrency between 2000 and 2000 （ Represents the buyer of the last cycle ） There have been two periods of more sales .
However , After these two periods , With the price revision , Sales of old coins have slowed down considerably . This shows that , Veterans sell before major revisions , Then they also tend to buy back when prices get cheaper （ And may buy at a lower price ）
If we compare the selling behavior of cryptocurrency with 2017 Compare the macro top of the year , We can see that a somewhat similar pattern has been staged , When the market is overheating , Veterans slow down buying . However , It was on the first rally that , As the probability of a bear market increases , The proportion of old coins sold has increased . Similar events happened in 2018 Most of the bear market rallies in 2007 , as well as 11 The final sell-off of the month .
In the current market structure , This is an important indicator that needs attention , Because it may indicate whether there will be a similar massive exit of the old currency in any easing rebound . contrary , No old illiquid cryptocurrency was distributed , It's going to show what's injured in the fight HODLers There's still a more bullish outlook in .
To achieve the upper limit HODL Wave offers a point of view , In active supply , What is the proportion of cryptocurrency held in different periods of time . A typical periodic pattern is .
In the current market structure , We've seen , As new speculators enter the market , Less than 3 There was the first major impulse to cryptocurrency in the last two months . This is consistent with the initial bull Rally , In from 1 Thousands of dollars to 4.2 After the $10000 breakthrough , The old money has been spent . The obvious difference in this cycle is , We can see that the share of new speculators is declining . There are several explanations for this phenomenon .
From the reverse side of the diagram , We can see two observations about the proportion of old coin holders .
This second point can be interpreted as both bullish , Because it means HODers Less cryptocurrency is distributed . However , It can also be considered bearish , Because it shows that there is not enough demand to absorb this relatively small supply of cryptocurrency .
At the end of the day , In the process of selling , The ultimate financial pain comes from investors watching unrealized gains evaporate , Whether it's back to cost , Or sell into unrealized losses . The unrealized net profit and loss measure calculates the extent of the total profit or loss held by the unused cryptocurrency supply , As a percentage of market value .
If we pass STH （ Currency age <5 Months ） Filter this indicator , We can see 5 The June sell-off competed with the bear market and the biggest sell-off in the history of bitcoin in terms of scale .2021 There are a lot of buyers who are now holding underwater coins . When prices try to recover , These supplies could be overhead pressure sheets , Provide a headwind for the bull market .
If we also filter by cryptocurrency held by long-term investors , The graph we got shows that , The market is on the edge of history . Unrealized... Held by long-term investors PnL It tends to be less volatile , And it's more cyclical because of bitcoin's huge long-term price performance .
However , At present, the unrealized net worth held by long-term investors is being tested 0.75 The level of , This has been the decisive level between bull and bear cycles in the past . Only in 2013 Year of 「 Two pumps 」 Under the circumstances , This indicator has just recovered . If LTHs Continue to see their paper earnings fall , It could also create a new source of overhead supply . On the other hand , The supply squeeze from higher prices and falling buying will start to resemble 2013 Year of 「 Two pumps 」 situation .
In this article , We talked about some of the things that describe bitcoin's most terrifying sell-off before 、 Indicators and indices of market structure during and after the period . All in all , There are some bull and bear markets , It can be explained from existing data .
Institutional needs from 2 The month began to soften significantly , The resulting supply sink / The squeeze also dissipated .
The balance of the exchange increase , A lot of cryptocurrency selling transactions , Now it has to be accumulated again .
stay Coinbase Before listing , Stable currency The distribution of money reflects , The veteran had sold before the crash .
A large number of short-term holders Still in deep water , And the unrealized gains of long-term holders are on the edge of history , Consistent with the bear market of the past .
For a bull market
Even though prices have plummeted , Institutional products G BTC and Purpose ETF Is showing signs of recovery , Provides an early sign of a return to institutional interest .
although The balance of the exchange Added , But a more nuanced view suggests that there are differences between regulated exchanges in the US and offshore exchanges . There may be a jurisdictional bias at work .
Stable currency The output of our country has expanded dramatically , Created the largest cryptocurrency in history, the role of native dollar purchasing power .
Most of the sales seem to be short-term holders , And long-term holders seem to be buying falling cryptocurrencies with growing faith .
Few claim that buying bitcoin is easy , For many people , The volatility we saw last week was all part of cryptocurrency . The obvious thing is , The scale of this sell-off is very large , A lot of buyers are underwater right now . How the market recovers from here , It is undoubtedly a test of market faith , And that's still a good macro context for digital scarcity .
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