Blockchain Knight 2021-06-18 18:47:42 阅读数:302
After one of the worst falls in bitcoin history , Many people wonder if the encryption market has peaked . Again and again, the fear of the market is pounding the market , After the panic , It has had a negative impact on some of the holders . Many retail investors panic and sell their digital assets .
The situation seems to suggest that 2018 year 1 The month's slump began again , There's talk of a new bear market coming .
For months , The encryption field around bitcoin has been dominated by the bullish sentiment adopted by the market . Bitcoin as a value savings , Steal the light of gold .“ Only up ” It's not just a kind of MeMe, It's also a belief , Until the moment when the price falls below every key support .
Even though bitcoin's slump was sudden , But in fact, many experts have interpreted bitcoin's unusual signs and indicators and made predictions . Anonymous analysts John Nash This phenomenon has been studied for some time , And put forward an interesting theory .
Nash Looking back on the previous cycle of bitcoin , Against holding eternity “ rose ” Emotional investors make up “ Moonlighting ”. As shown in the figure below , since 2021 Since then , Every fluctuation of bitcoin has a common feature ： They tend to be longer than before , Return on investment (ROI) It's even lower .
The first cycle of bitcoin began with 2011 year , a 8 Months . in the meantime , Bitcoin prices from 1 Over the dollar to 10 About $ . The second cycle begins with 2013 Somewhere in the year , It lasted about 7 Months , And at the end of that year and 2014 Two different peaks were reached in 2000 .
The third cycle of bitcoin is by far the longest , Duration is 35 Months , And the current cycle has been extended 28 Months , Analysts support that ：
“ The cycle is significantly longer ,ROI Significantly reduce the ( The law of diminishing returns ). Whoever still believes in 4 Year cycle and constant return on investment , He's obviously denying or delusional .”
According to the chart provided by the analyst , He put forward 3 There are two possible solutions ： stay 2022 The current cycle of bitcoin before the summer of 2008 reached a peak , If it follows the same length as the previous cycle , The period will be extended to 2022 year 10 month .
Last , The least likely and most optimistic scenario is , To 2021 year 12 month , This cycle will peak . According to the previous argument , It can be assumed that the shorter the period ,ROI The more explosive it is , If that happens , Bitcoin can see a huge increase .
On the other hand , The analyst warned investors , This could be a powerful attraction for new users , If you follow blindly , Just as dangerous . according to Metcalfe The laws of , To describe the adoption curve of new technology ,“Nash” Come to the following conclusion ：
In the last ten years , Bitcoin more or less follows the Adoption Curve /Metcalfe The law of the law , however , Bitcoin has a unique characteristic . Because bitcoin's network growth is directly expressed in monetary value , It's prone to speculation , That is the bubble we often talk about .
Use a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) You can determine the real bottom and top of bitcoin , When the curve starts to flatten , The number of users entering the network will decrease , This will be accompanied by more maturities of bitcoin prices ( Time ) And less volatility .
The analyst rejected the model that the price of bitcoin would appreciate infinitely , He thinks that , The performance of the bitcoin cycle shows no sign of surpassing its previous overexpansion .
let me put it another way , If the percentage increase is higher than 2017 year , Bitcoin is unlikely to reach unprecedented prices . at that time ,BTC from 1,000 US dollar increased to 20,000 dollar , increased 1,900%.
that , In this cycle , Cryptocurrency comes from 10,000 The dollar rose to 100,000 The dollar will mean 900% The growth of , According to this theory , It seems to be a reasonable inference .
The current price of bitcoin is 36,112 dollar , There are losses in all time frames , At the time of writing this report , Monthly volatility is most affected by the market , lost 37.3%.
The original text comes from newsbtc, Compiled by blockchain Knight , Copyright in English belongs to the original author , Please contact the compiler for Chinese reprint .
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