Wu Shuo's blockchain 2021-06-18 18:45:30 阅读数:641
author ： Liu quankai
2019 year 3 month 22 Japan , Twitter analysts PlanB Published 《 Modeling the price of bitcoin with scarcity 》 One article . since S2F More than two years after the model was released , Bitcoin price has been tracking the predicted price of the model with high accuracy .
（ picture source ： twitter @dan_pantera）
S2F Model to predict 4 month 15 The price of bitcoin in Japan will reach $62968, As a result, the price of bitcoin is 4 month 13 Daily break through the forecast . With money and security data , Bitcoin in 4 month 14 Day to day $64854 Set new heights . Before that , Bitcoin and S2F Model The predicted price arrival time is no more than 15 God .
Although investors are interested in S2F Model From time to time there are voices of doubt , It's impossible to predict the market , But the high accuracy of the model is amazing .
However , this “ The laws of ” stay 5 The month is ended .S2F Model forecast 5 month 15 Day or so , The price of bitcoin will reach $74474, in fact , With money and security data ,5 month 15 Bitcoin closed at just $46762.99. since 4 month 14 Japan , When bitcoin reaches its peak , And then all the way down , Now we're still trying to get back to 4 Work hard for thousands of passes , distance 6 month 15 Japan's model predicts that the price will almost double .
From a non-technical point of view , Try to use popular language , To show you S2F Model The principle of operation and its limitation, as well as some self thinking .
In Economics SF To measure the scarcity of goods , Two formulas are derived ：
① S2F（SF/StFR）：Stock-to-Flow =stock/flow= inventory / The circulation of goods
② 1/SF= The growth rate of commodity supply
And the resulting definitions ：
① StFR Average , Show the average height of the annual growth rate of Supply , The larger the average , The more suitable it is for money
② StFR range , It shows the expectation of extreme outliers for a long time , The smaller the range , The more suitable it is for money
③ StFR The median annual growth rate , Shows the short-term average volatility , The lower the median , The more suitable it is for money
In Economics , To quantify the availability of money , Money is often compared with gold 、 Silver SF Value comparison , So as to determine the reasonable value , As shown in the following table ：
（ picture source ：Nowandfutures.com,Incrementum AG）
Take gold, for example , its StFR The value is about 67.1, That means it costs 67.1 Only when gold is mined in one year can the gold stock in circulation be produced . Silver StFR by 74.3.
Plan B stay 《 Modeling the price of bitcoin with scarcity 》 The article says , gold SF The value is 62, Silver SF The value is 22, high SF Value makes them a store of value . In history , Gold and silver have become currency to flow through . Besides, we can find ,SF Values can change , Silver SF The absolute value of the value is greatly reduced . in an article ,Plan B Also pointed out BTC-SF by 25（ Due to the 2019 The total number of bitcoins issued by the end of the year /2018 Annual supply ).
After understanding the definition of Economics ,BTC-S2F Model The idea behind it is clear at a glance —— Think of bitcoin as gold 、 Silver is a kind of valuable storage product with comparability .
The circulation of gold to the market needs to go through six links ： Exploration 、 mining 、 beneficiation 、 Smelting 、 Processing and sales , Among them, exploration 、 Mining and mineral processing are time-consuming and costly . From the perspective of the supply side , That is, it is difficult to increase its supply on a large scale . Bitcoin is very similar , Its supply has a ceiling and a unique halving mechanism , Every time 4 Bitcoin production is halved once a year , Dig to 2140 year ,2100 Ten thousand bitcoins have been mined . And mining also requires a lot of power and computing power . This makes bitcoin a store of value comparable to gold , Because they are relatively scarce .
With the increasing scarcity of bitcoin , Its price will go up with it , This is a Plan B Created BTC-S2F The core principle of the model .
Based on this principle ,Plan B Collected 2019 Monthly bitcoin price data for the past 10 years , And in the form of linear regression , With SF The natural logarithm of the value as an independent variable , Bitcoin price as a dependent variable , Fit the extracted data （ It's a straight line ）, Found out SF There is a positive correlation between value and market price . And then it is combined with the half cycle of bitcoin to fit and adjust , Formed what we are all familiar with S2F Model , And this model is used to predict the price of the comparative currency .
be based on BTC-SF Value as a forecast of the price of the bitcoin BTC-S2F Model, Here's the picture （4 month 27 Japan ） Show ：
（ picture source ：lookintobitcoin.com）
The price of bitcoin will revolve around S2F The price line goes up , Or above it , Or below him .Plan B Once said , If in 2022 I didn't see it years ago $100000 A single bitcoin , The model is declared invalid . But at least 5 I came to see it before September , be based on BTC-S2F Model The prediction is quite accurate .
After understanding the basic principles of the model , I believe most investors will have such questions ： Can simple supply and demand really be a reason for investment decisions ？ Because in most people's minds , The return on any asset is uncertain .
And what investors are most critical of is , The model ignores market factors , For example, the change of mining calculation power 、 Investor sentiment, etc ; Policy factors , National policies, regulations and supervision, etc . These factors are difficult to be added into the model as quantitative factors , And the rise or fall of prices are often inseparable from the changes of these factors .
So take a look 5 What happened in January , Let bitcoin price gradually deviate from S2F Model Forecast price . Here's the picture （6 month 1 Japan ） Show ：
（ picture source ：lookintobitcoin.com）
5 month 12 Japan , Musk announced that Tesla would no longer accept bitcoin payment based on global environmental considerations , Bitcoin prices fell more than 12%;
5 month 18 Friday night , China payment and clearing Association, etc , Identify financial institutions 、 Payment institutions shall not carry out business related to virtual currency ,5 month 19 Japan , The price of bitcoin has fallen by more than 14%;
5 month 21 Friday night , Minutes of the 51st meeting of the Finance Commission , When it comes to cracking down on bitcoin mining and trading . In the follow-up , Closure or relocation of mines in relevant areas , Negative factors such as the closure of related businesses of the exchange will affect , Prices are still flat .
Besides , And the Biden administration's potential interest rate hike policy continues to ferment , Domestic policy remains unclear , Over leverage 、 Market panic, capital divergence and other factors in 5 Let the downturn continue to spread .
so , Once at a node , Influenced by extreme external news 、 Heavy policy and high internal leverage 、 Excessive interference of factors such as high speculative sentiment ,S2F Model These factors cannot be taken into account completely , The forecast price will be distorted .
Introduce... Into economics SF Value is a measure of the scarcity of goods , and BTC：S2F Model It's the other way around SF As price “ Reference resources ”. Take care of it , It seems to assert that the price of a commodity is directly derived from the growth rate of its gradually insufficient or scarce supply . The well-known theory is , In Marxist economics, it is believed that , The price of a commodity is determined by its value , Price fluctuates around value under the influence of supply and demand ; The value of a commodity is determined by the socially necessary labor time to produce it （ This can explain the mining cost of bitcoin , Reflected in part of the price ）. Only from a theoretical point of view , hold SF There are some shortcomings in reverse use , Because even gold and silver , There is no evidence that , Its price is directly determined by supply .
But anyway , By 5 Month ago, ,BTC-S2F Model It does show amazing accuracy . Although the actual price has deviated greatly from the forecast price at present , But judging from past forecasts , When there is a deviation , Bitcoin prices will eventually return , Around S2F Model The forecast goes in the right direction , And based on Plan B The reverie of , distance 2022 There are still half a year left in this year , So will history repeat itself ？
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