Beep beep news 2021-06-18 18:44:30 阅读数:312
The original title | from 6 Look at the future trend from the data on the chain
Is the once-in-four-year halving market over ？ This is investment 、 dig 、 play DeFi The biggest question for users of .
After this year 4 month , Bitcoin prices hit 64000 Since the high of more than US dollars , At one point, the price of bitcoin fell by half .
5 month 17 Japan , The share of bitcoin market value in the market value of all cryptocurrencies has fallen below 40%. In the eyes of some investors, this is a Shanzhai coin Carnival , Bull market peak signal .
Domestic regulation is on the rise again ： The three departments jointly issued the announcement , Remind investors to guard against the risk of speculation in virtual currency transactions ; Inner Mongolia drafted 《 Eight measures to resolutely crack down on and punish the mining of virtual currency （ Solicitation draft ）》.
meanwhile , Listed companies such as MicroStrategy, Investment funds such as ARK And so on, it's like a special coin .
ARK Funds continue to buy cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase Shares , founder Cathie Wood I think bitcoin is in the empty stage at present , The future can rise to 50 Thousands of dollars .
MicroStrategy The number of bitcoins purchased has exceeded 11 over , The company even issued debt （ Convertible bond ） To continuously accumulate bitcoin chips .
Users are confused ： This is the end of the third round of the halving effect ？ Will there be a more drastic rise after the correction ？ Not this time , Will you miss another chance ？
Beep News In this paper, some market indicators are analyzed , Hope to provide readers with a better understanding of the market ideas .
BTC circulation / Newly excavated BTC Number
S2F It's analysts PlanB Put forward （ It wasn't created by him ） A model of , This model argues that the scarcity of assets drives value . therefore , This model calculates the ratio between the current supply of assets and the annual output , To value assets .
Glassnode Data show that , On the whole , The price trend of bitcoin and S2F The curves are basically the same . however S2F The model is not indisputable , In many cases , There is a huge difference between the model and the actual price . With 5 month 31 Day, for example , The price of bitcoin estimated by the model is 64503 dollar , And the real price of bitcoin is 37313 dollar .
Bitcoin price trends and S2F The curves are basically the same , source ：Glassnode
PlanB It was also made clear that , We should be careful , Don't see bitcoin's relative scarcity as the only reason for its rise in value .S2F Its simplicity also makes it impossible to consider external factors and black swan events , for example , Bitcoin is accelerating the government's response to COVID-19 .
from S2F From the data ,PlanB The future of the bitcoin is very optimistic . He was in 5 month 5 Japan tweets that “ Can't wait to see the second wave of bitcoin bull market .” It also predicts that the price of bitcoin will reach... This year 10 Ten thousand dollars or 28.8 Ten thousand dollars average .
NVT= Market value / Daily trading volume
NVT The golden cross =NVT Short term trends /NVT Long term trends
NVT and NVT The two indicators of golden cross are based on mean regression theory , That is, the price of assets will return to the average price level over time .
NVT Divide the market value of the asset by the daily trading volume in US dollars , In order to judge whether the value of assets is overvalued or undervalued （ Is there any deviation from the average ）.
and NVT The golden cross is right NVT Improvement of , It's by comparing the short-term NVT Average change and over a longer period of time NVT Average change , Get a ratio , To determine whether the current trend deviates from the average trend .
thus it can be seen ,NVT Gold cross index can predict the price trend to a certain extent . When the value is higher than 2.2（ Enter the red zone ） It often indicates a downside risk , conversely , When the value is lower than -1.6（ Enter the Green Zone ） when , The price is likely to go up .
Take last year and this year as an example ,2020 year 8-9 month ,NVT Gold cross index enters -1.6 The following areas , Since then 2020 year 9 From the beginning of the month until 2021 year 1 month , Bitcoin prices have shown a clear overall upward trend .
In this year 2 In to the 3 During the month ,NVT Gold Cross has made a big breakthrough 2.2 boundaries , Then from 4 Month to date , We've experienced a massive setback in bitcoin .
The currency NVT The gold cross index , source ：CryptoQuant
The red line is the index curve , The grey line is BTC The price curve
For now , from 4 month 22 The day is coming 5 month 6 Japan , as well as 5 month 21 since ,NVT The gold cross index has been hovering around -1.6 following , It was once as low as -3 about , This may mean that the future upside may be .
BTC Market value / The market value of all stable currencies
SSR This indicator can be used to measure the purchasing power of the dollar market against the dollar . It calculates the ratio of the market value of bitcoin to that of all stable currencies .
The lower the number is , It shows that the more stable the supply of bitcoin is, the more stable the supply of bitcoin is , The stronger the ability to boost the price of bitcoin .Messari The relative supply of this stable currency is called “ Dry powder ”.
The red line is SSR curve , The grey line is BTC The price curve , source ：CryptoQuant
at present SSR The indicators are low .Messari It is pointed out in recent analysis that ,SSR The rate has fallen to 7.5 Times the lowest point in history , This represents the largest encrypted local dollar purchasing power in history .
But does that mean a bullish signal ？ Not necessarily. . In the near future USDT The stable currency represented by is in a state of obvious negative premium , It shows that the user has no hedging demand to deal with the drastic price fluctuation , There's no strong entry sentiment .
The market may need to show investors some upward trends first , Stable currency “ Dry powder ” It's the only way to play the role of , And finally bring the effect of promotion .
Perpetual contract bulls pay bears on a regular basis / The percentage of fees charged
There is such a phenomenon in the non sustainable contract market ： Users often need to roll their positions before the contract expires （ It can be understood as renewing the contract ）, So as to extend the investment exposure . When a user purchases a contract, his opponent is a market maker , In order to make up for the risk of market makers , Users have to pay market makers .
A perpetual contract, as the name suggests, has no expiration date , So there is no rolling position , So you don't have to keep paying market makers . But in the practice of perpetual contracts , Bulls need to pay bears on a regular basis （ Perpetual contract transaction price - The spot price of the subject matter ） The cost of .
There are two advantages to doing so , One is to convert the fees paid to market makers into those paid to users with book losses , Buffer the market ; Second, it can make the price of the perpetual contract converge to the spot price of the subject matter .
If the price of the perpetual contract is much higher than the spot price of the subject matter , So many bulls have to pay high capital costs to bears , This forces bulls to sell perpetual contracts , Lower its price , vice versa .
And because there is a large income space in contract trading , So even if there is a capital rate , Users will configure long or short positions according to their own judgment . therefore , Through the capital rate , We can judge the overall bearish sentiment of the market .
This year, 5 month 19 Japan , The cryptocurrency market has plummeted . meanwhile , The capital rate of perpetual contracts on all exchanges has reached a low point in nearly a year .5 month 19 The day is coming 24 Japan , Capital rates have been negative , That is, short book profit , To pay the Bulls . This also shows that the panic caused by the slump has made the market bearish as a whole . at present , The capital rate has returned to a positive value .
All exchange capital rates , source ：CryptoQuant
（GBTC The secondary market price - Buying price ）/ Buying price
Gray bitcoin trust GBTC Once thought to be a key force driving up bitcoin prices .
QFII put in cash or bitcoin , Get a trust fund with bitcoin as its subject GBTC Share . these GBTC after 6 After a month's lock up, it can be sold to a wider group of investors in the market .
It used to be GBTC Normal , That is, the selling price is higher than the buying price . This once prompted more and more qualified investors to move bitcoin into gray scale funds , because GBTC The irredeemability of , The market supply of bitcoin has been reduced , The price of bitcoin and GBTC The premium rate is further elevated .
But from this year 2 In the beginning , This trend has reversed .GBTC from 2 month 26 It has been maintaining a negative premium since July , The lowest premium rate is below -20%,GBTC The number of bitcoins held has also been decreasing .
GBTC Premium situation , source ：CryptoQuant
And GBTC Like bitcoin ETF There has also been a decline in institutional interest in funds .5 month 4 solstice 18 Japan , Canadian bitcoin ETF fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin in China is dominated by outflow . Another Canadian bitcoin ETF fund QBTC It is from 2 In the beginning , Continue to hover in the negative premium range .
thus it can be seen , Recently, the momentum of currency price growth from institutions and qualified investors has weakened .
From all the miners' wallets BTC/ One year moving average
Institutional investors and qualified investors are weak in increasing their holdings of bitcoin , And miners are probably hoarding bitcoin .
MPI Is to put all the miners in a certain period of time （ such as 6 month 2 On the day ） The number of bitcoins transferred from the wallet divided by the average over a year , So as to judge the possibility of miners selling or hoarding in the short term .
CryptoQuant Information display , From this year 3 Since the month ,MPI Concentrated in negative areas . Given that miners are selling bitcoin for electricity 、 Machinery and other cost funds , So the one-year moving average in the miner's wallet should be positive, no surprise ,MPI A negative value indicates that the miners are likely to be hoarding bitcoin , That is, the quantity transferred out is less than the mining output .
MPI curve , source ：CryptoQuant
at present MPI be in -0.7 The lower levels below , It means that the miners may be waiting for a higher selling price , This means that in the short term , The bitcoin market may have less selling pressure from miners .
These are only part of the indicators , It may not fully reflect the market situation . Besides , At any time , It may be better to observe this ever-changing market from a dynamic perspective than to try to seek unchanging laws .
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