original | Point wide College
The total number of words 3594 word , The length of reading is recommended 9 minute .
Blockchain is often touted as a world changing technology , In many ways , It does . However , It doesn't have to be a panacea for the world's problems that many evangelists make you believe .
Here is a breakdown of some of the blockchain issues , Anyone who wants to use it should understand . Start with the biggest …
Ever since the entry of the world into the Pember terminal , Online trading has become a hot spot . In recent years , Online trading trends are growing year by year , Now it gives traders and investors the ability to invest in almost any global market . meanwhile , To help traders , More and more information providing and analysis tools are born , For example, big data . In recent years , Big data technology has made great progress , It's designed to handle huge data sets easily . Its characteristics can be used 3V To sum up ： Big data (volume)、 Fast production speed (velocity) And a variety of data types (variety). Big data on the Internet can be obtained at the public level . Search engine 、 Social networks 、 Forum 、 Blogs and websites are for everyone “ Tailored ” An information channel for them . In financial markets , Countless capital information is flooding the Internet , Let investors “ stop ”. However , I believe that the huge amount of information will make retail investors bear greater risks , And the risk comes from their “ Blind confidence ”.
One challenge of behavioral finance to traditional finance is that attention is a scarce resource , So investors' attention is limited . Investors' limited attention affects asset prices in two ways : One side , Investors do not have the ability to process and absorb all available information , Lack of response to the information related to stock fundamentals ; On the other hand , Investors pay too much attention to specific events and overreact to the corresponding stocks （ Li Qian , Wu Hao 2017）. I will discuss this from two aspects .
Blockchain has environmental costs
to Less , That's exactly how it's used now . Blockchain relies on encryption to provide its security , And build consensus on Distributed Networks . It essentially means , in order to “ prove ” The user has the right to write to the chain , You have to run complex algorithms , This in turn requires a lot of computing power . Of course , There's a price . Take the most well-known and widely used blockchain bitcoin as an example , Last year it was claimed that , The computing power needed to keep the network running consumes as much energy as in the world 159 The energy consumption of a country . you 're right , Bitcoin's blockchain is a very valuable network —— end 2021 year 4 month 8 Japan , The market for bitcoin More than 1.06 Trillions of dollars —— therefore , Complex and compute intensive security is critical . Smaller blockchain （ For example, a blockchain deployed in an organization to monitor and record business activities ） Will consume a small part of it However , This is an important consideration , Its environmental impact and energy cost cannot be ignored .
Lack of regulation creates a dangerous environment
Again , This is largely a problem with bitcoin or other value based blockchain networks . But the truth is , As many people have invested in bit for the first time in the past few months As found in cryptocurrencies or other cryptocurrencies , It's a very unstable environment . Due to the lack of Supervision , Fraud and market manipulation are common （Zhang etc. ,2018）. Examples of concern include Oncecoin—— It was recently revealed as a Ponzi scheme , It is believed that , The scam took millions of investors' money , These investors believe that , They entered early and will become “ Next bitcoin ” The field of . As in many areas of science and technology in recent years , Legislators are basically not keeping up with innovators （ Or cheaters ） The pace of , This leads to people trying to use “FOMO”（ namely “ Fear of being left out ”） A lot of people have been selected . Even as a speculative investor in cryptocurrencies , You choose to stick to bitcoin 、 Relatively mature currencies such as Wright or ether , The exchange or online wallet where you keep your coins can always be ******, Shut down by the government for wrongdoing , Or just abscond with your coins . Again , It's the result of a lack of regulation across the industry .
Its complexity means it's hard for end users to appreciate its benefits
Although once people try to understand the principles of encryption and distributed ledger behind blockchain , Its potential revolutionary applications are obvious , But in “ People on the street ” Before you see what makes blockchain so potentially useful , It's going to take a while and a good reading .
Technology experts talk about how to replace the traditional man in the middle service provided by the financial services industry , For example, clearing payments and fraud prevention .
But for many people , The bank fully provides this service at a significantly lower cost to the end user .
The first blockchain bitcoin is 2008 Immediately after the 2008 financial crisis, public awareness , It's no coincidence , At that time, the media and public opinion reflected the general dissatisfaction and growing distrust of mature financial institutions and instruments .
Ten years later , Without the obvious danger of an immediate repeat , Is there anyone who still wants to tear down financial services on a large scale and rebuild from scratch ？
Of course , The last crisis was largely unexpected , Who knows what will happen .
Global events may rekindle interest in change , But before they came along , Blockchain may still be a hard bargain for many people .
Blockchain can be slow and cumbersome
Again , Due to the complexity of blockchain transactions and their encryption 、 The nature of distribution , Blockchain transactions may take a while to process , Of course, with cash or debit cards and so on “ Tradition ” Compared to the payment system . The bitcoin deal could take hours to finalize , It means , There's an inherent problem with the idea that you can pay for a cup of coffee in bitcoin at lunchtime , Unless the seller is willing to take the risk factor . Isn't this a blockchain “ Untrustworthy ” What is expected to be removed from the equation by the nature of ？
Theoretically , This principle extends to blockchain networks , Blockchain networks are used for purposes other than value storage , For example, record transactions or interactions in the Internet of things environment （Syed etc. ,2019）. After all , These chains are actually just computer files , As it grows in size , And the growth in the number of computers accessing and writing to the network , They can become slow and clumsy . I hope this problem will be solved with the progress of engineering and processing speed , But at this time it's still a problem .
“ Institutions ” Have vested interests in the blockchain
honestly , Although there is a huge interest in adopting blockchain technology in the mature financial industry , But the subtext behind people talking about blockchain technology is “ It would be better if it disappeared quietly ”.
Banks make huge profits by acting as middlemen , And because costs are distributed among millions of customers , End users usually pay a small personal fee .
As early as 2015 year , Barclay （Barclays） One of his former employers once described the interest and obvious enthusiasm of his industry as “ Detest the world and its ways ”—— He said , This stems from the desire to control or even prevent the usefulness of emerging technologies . Banks have huge lobbying power over governments and legislators . It is conceivable that , If they think it's in their interest , If the mature financial services industry does not stifle the blockchain , It could significantly reduce the usefulness of the blockchain and limit its availability .
The future direction
However , in my opinion , Although these five issues may pose major obstacles , But blockchain technology is likely to develop in the next few years .
After all , Technological progress is very similar to nature , There are ways to get around the barriers of artificial construction .
From an evolutionary point of view , Any species 、 Progress in form or technology comes from survival .
Gartner Vice president of outstanding research David Furlonger Once said ,“ stay Gartner 2019 In the CIO agenda survey ,60% The chief information officer of , They expect that blockchain technology will be adopted to a certain extent in the next three years .
” This sentence comes from 2020 year , People have confidence in it , Also willing to believe that blockchain technology is a secret weapon to help enterprises survive better in the competition .
from 2017 Year to 2020 year , The demand for blockchain has increased by nearly 2000%.
according to Money The magazine ,2021 In 2000, the recognition and demand of blockchain in the field of science and technology reached an unprecedented peak , It can even break through in the future .
according to IBM The company's blockchain blog , Many information officials and Wall Street investors in the field of science and technology have expressed their opinions on the future direction of blockchain . To 2021 year , The new governance model will start , Blockchain will enable large and diverse consortia to handle decisions more effectively 、 Licensing program , Even pay . These models will help standardize information from different sources , And capture new 、 More robust data sets .68% Our CTO and CIO even expect , In the next one to three years , An extensible governance model that interacts across multiple blockchain networks will become an important feature of its organizational blockchain environment .
in summary , The speed and efficiency of point-to-point transactions in the blockchain network are excellent , But at a high total cost . Take the bitcoin network as an example , It uses the working proof method instead of the participants in the trust network , The total operating costs associated with verifying and sharing transactions on the public ledger are estimated to be as high as... Per year 6 Billion dollars , And it's going up . The total does not include capital costs associated with the acquisition of specialized mining hardware . therefore , Blockchain is a productivity paradox . On the scale of the entire network , The process significantly improves productivity , But it takes a certain amount of “ Critical mass ” node . However , Even so , A single node can also work very hard , And it may not contribute much to the whole network . therefore , Decisions about implementing blockchain applications need to be carefully considered . Single processing node （ Individuals in the public blockchain or organizations in the whole industry blockchain ） The payoff may decrease as the size of the network grows . This means that blockchain applications must take advantage of network effects to provide value to consumers or the industry as a whole .
Although most technical geniuses approve of blockchain Technology , But there is no specific strategy to solve the first three problems , It's going to be a hindrance . But how many obstacles have been defeated on the way of human progress ？ Time will tell .
The literature ：
1.Zibin Zheng etc. Blockchain challenges and opportunities: a survey
2.Ali Syed etc. A Comparative Analysis of Blockchain Architecture and its Applications: Problems and Recommendations